Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage across western sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and they are headed towards the I-95 corridor region from DC to Philly. These thunderstorms are associated with a cool frontal system which is slowly dropping southeastward over the Ohio Valley. With the heating in the lower atmosphere this afternoon in the I-95 corridor; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border, there should be enough instability to support the convection now firing up in places like central and western Pennsylvania. The timetable for this threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity is 3-8 pm in the DC metro region and 4-9 pm in the Philly metro region. The greatest threat from these potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and hail. In areas to the north of the Philly metro region (e.g., New York City) and at the coastline, the atmosphere is more stable with persistent cooler temperatures and the threat for severe weather is considerably lower.
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There were unofficially as many as 21 tornadoes yesterday in the central and southern Plains and one of those apparently took place in the state of Oklahoma. The National Weather Service has not yet confirmed any of yesterday’s storm reports and the possibility of one in the state of Oklahoma is important since it would be the first of the calendar year and the latest ever for their first tornado. A more widespread severe weather outbreak is likely later today and there can be damaging wind gusts, softball-sized hail, and tornadoes from Texas-to-Iowa as favorable conditions come together in that part of the country.
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To be fair, most of the computer model predictions of a transition from La Nina (colder-than-normal) to El Nino (warmer-than-normal) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggest this will take place over the next few months, but the track record of these same models from just one year ago is not all that confidence-building and the latest 7-day change in sea surface temperatures is certainly not yet showing any kind of dramatic turnaround. The overall conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are very important to the Atlantic Basin tropical season which officially begins in just over one month’s time. Computer forecast model predictions of an El Nino last year were simply not accurate and the surprise return of La Nina late last summer contributed to the suddenly very active tropical season of 2017.
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There will be another chilly shot of air dropping southeastward this weekend into the Northeast US and Sunday will turn out to be cooler-than-normal for this time of year, but there are signs that a major warm up is coming next week. In fact, it looks like the major warm up will coincide quite nicely with the calendar change to May (on Tuesday) with the 80’s quite likely for highs during this warm stretch of weather - perhaps even with a run at the 90 degree mark at some point later next week. Looking even farther ahead, next week’s warm up does not appear to be the end of the cooler-than-normal air masses coming our way as it is likely to turn much cooler again during the second week of the new month.
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A major warm up in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor will continue into Saturday, but then temperatures will come crashing down on Sunday as a strong back door cold front slides down the Northeast US coastline from northeast-to-southwest. A more conventional west-to-east moving cold front will then produce a heavy rain event around here on Sunday night and Monday and strong thunderstorms can be mixed into the picture as it turns somewhat milder on Monday ahead of the cold front. In fact, the rain may be so heavy early Monday morning that it could have a negative impact on the AM commute up and down the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Much colder-than-normal air will follow the passage of the west-to-east moving cold front for Monday night and Tuesday and highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark on Tuesday afternoon.
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“April is the cruelest month” so said T.S. Eliot many, many years ago. Just when it looks like spring has sprung for good and the winter cold is over, temperatures can change on a dime in the Northeast US during the early part of the spring. It is this time of year when temperatures can drop from the 70’s to the 40’s in a matter of hours in places like Boston, New York, Philly and DC if the “dreaded back door cold front” moves in from the northeast. In fact, this appears to be a strong possibility this weekend as a dramatic drop in temperatures may occur between Saturday and Sunday in at least parts of the I-95 corridor with southwest winds shifting to a northeasterly direction. By Sunday night, a deep upper-level low and a strong surface cold front will begin to approach the eastern states and this setup is likely to result in a heavy rain event for DC, Philly and NYC in the Sunday night/Monday morning time period and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms included. Following this heavy rain event, much cooler air will push in from the Midwest in a more conventional west-to-east direction, and it looks like it’ll stay colder-than-normal right into the latter stages of the month.
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It is currently about as cold as it ever gets during the month of April in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest and it’ll turn much colder here in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend following a brief spike in temperatures this afternoon. In fact, temperatures here this weekend will be some 20-25 degrees below normal for this time of year and this seemingly never-ending colder-than-normal weather pattern is likely to continue into at least the second half of the month. A strong cold front will push through the region later tonight and usher in the next cold air mass for the weekend and a couple waves of low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone on Saturday making snow an on-going threat in parts of the I-95 corridor.
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An active and cold weather pattern will continue for the Mid-Atlantic region into the middle of next week with additional cold air outbreaks and the threat for more early spring snow. After a blustery and cold day today, a “clipper-like” low pressure system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Friday and it will bring some rain and snow shower activity to the Mid-Atlantic region. This system will drag a cold front through the area and much colder-than-normal air will flood the region for the weekend after a brief warm up on Friday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will form along this cold frontal boundary zone and likely throw some snow into the I-95 corridor on Saturday, but it doesn’t appear to be a significant event. Yet another low pressure system may impact the Mid-Atlantic region in the early part of next week.
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A very active weather pattern is bringing the I-95 corridor intense winds today associated with a strong cold frontal system and there may be another round of springtime accumulating snow this Saturday for parts of the region. Winds could gust past 50 mph this afternoon and early evening following the passage of a strong cold front as a fresh cold air mass rushes into the region. On Thursday, it’ll be blustery and quite cold for this time of year and the winds will start off the day quite strong though they will likely diminish during the mid and late afternoon hours. A “clipper-type” low pressure system will then bring rain and snow showers to parts of the I-95 corridor on Friday and also push a cold front through the region. This front will usher in very cold air for this time of year and low pressure will form along the stalling frontal boundary zone and likely generate some accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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The overall weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region will remain colder-than-normal into at least the middle of April, but that doesn’t mean every single day will be below-normal. In fact, temperatures on Wednesday will jump into the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of a cold front which could generate thunderstorms and strong wind gusts, but then much colder air returns for tomorrow night and Thursday. Another strong cold front will arrive on Friday and low pressure will likely form early in the weekend along this frontal boundary zone as it stalls out just south of here. This system could very well produce accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor on Saturday and that may not be the last threat of snow in this seemingly never-ending active and cold weather pattern.
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