The 2024 baseball season gets underway in just two weeks on Thursday, March 28th, and a sneak peek at the weather from this long-range vantage point suggests there certainly can be additional cold air outbreaks to deal with in many areas. If indeed a sustained colder-than-normal weather pattern were to set up by April, this would follow a recent trend for the month which has been colder-than-normal on average across much of the nation.
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A very cold low pressure system that is currently rotating around the Gulf of Alaska is already impacting the region from northern California to Washington and it has the rest of California in its sights. This cold storm system promises to be long-lasting and it is very likely to produce tremendous snowfall amounts in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains with as much as 11 or 12 feet on the table. The air mass sliding into the western US will become increasingly colder-than-normal over the next few days and this will allow snow to fall at relatively low elevations in the state of California.
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Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions (colder-than-normal) by the early part of the 2024 summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. A flip from El Nino to La Nino across the equatorial Pacific Ocean can have big implications on the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Basin tropical season. In fact, this expected dramatic change in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean may be a major contributor to a very active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin as atmospheric conditions are typically more favorable (lower wind shear) during La Nina episodes for the development and intensification of tropical storms. A second favorable factor for a very active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin is the likely continuation there of widespread warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. Finally, as oceanic cycles play a critical role in global temperatures, a flip from El Nino to La Nina in the world’s largest ocean could mean a return to closer-to-normal levels following a spike during the past year or so.
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Temperatures will climb to well above-normal levels in the central US during the next couple of days and then in the eastern US this Friday and Saturday. However, a pattern change to colder-than-normal begins next week in the central and eastern US and this change looks like it will have some staying power. Numerous teleconnection indices point to an upcoming change in the temperature pattern and an on-going stratospheric warming event supports the idea.
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My fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator, Punxsutawney Phil, and I have a little bit of a disagreement about the coming six weeks as he has predicted an early spring while I believe there is plenty of winter left across much of the nation and it will not be an early spring for most…hopefully, he turns out to be right. In terms of temperatures, after a very cold middle of the month of January, a “January thaw” developed that brought temperatures to above-normal levels for much of the last ten days or so. The month of February is likely to start off warmer-than-normal across much of the central and eastern US and colder-than-normal out west. However, the overall temperature pattern looks to change by the middle of the month to colder-than-normal for much of the nation and that change can take us right into the middle of March. Support for this kind of pattern change comes from an on-going stratospheric warming event and numerous teleconnection indices which can provide clues as to future weather patterns across the US based on what is trending in other parts of the world.
In terms of precipitation, an “El Nino enhanced” southern branch of the jet stream has already resulted in one powerful storm system for California that will now slide across the Rocky Mountain States to the southeastern US. A second and perhaps even more powerful Pacific Ocean storm will slam into the Golden State later this weekend and into the early part of next week. Several inches of rain will accumulate in California across low lying areas and tremendous snowfall in the higher elevation locations such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The Deep South and southeast US can experience severe thunderstorms later this weekend.
El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have gotten a “jolt” in recent days due to a burst of westerly winds and this sudden surge in strength will play a big role in the intensification of the southern branch of the jet stream. The phrase “atmospheric river” or “pineapple express” will be used quite often during the next couple of weeks as a powerful and relentless jet stream over the Pacific Ocean continues to inundate the US west coast with copious amounts of moisture.
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The weather stays on the chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region into the upcoming weekend, but becomes milder by the time we get to early next week with afternoon highs on Monday, Christmas Day, likely at or above the 50 degree mark in much of the I-95 corridor. By the next Tuesday and Wednesday, the mild weather pattern will likely result in more rain for the area as a low pressure system pulls out of the southern US and heads towards the Great Lakes. By the time we get to the end of the next week and following weekend, important upper-air changes across North America will become more evident and they should lead to colder, more winter-like, conditions in the eastern and southern US as the new year gets underway. An update is given in this posting on the teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a stratospheric warming event that continues to unfold which could impact US temperatures in the month of January.
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The remainder of this week and the upcoming weekend are likely to be seasonably cold-to-slightly below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but much of the rest of the nation should be warmer-than-normal. The return to seasonal cold in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US follows what has been a very mild few days that culminated with a major rainstorm up and down the eastern seaboard. There are signs that the overall pattern will change by later next week that can result in more sustained cold for the eastern and southern states. A look at some teleconnection indices tends to support the notion of a change in the pattern that would favor more colder-than-normal air for the eastern and southern US - and potentially, an increased chance for snow as well.
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Low pressure will slide into the central Gulf of Mexico region by the early part of the weekend and an intensification process will begin there that will soon result in a powerhouse storm system. The intensifying storm system will impact the Florida Peninsula and other parts of the Southeast US on Saturday night and Sunday and then it pushes northward producing rain and wind throughout the eastern states from Sunday into Monday. The rain will be heavy all along the path of the storm and winds are very likely to reach damaging levels; especially, along coastal sections where 60+ mph gusts are possible...power outages are on the table up and down the coast. There will be no cold air around initially in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US when the storm hits; however, cold air will pour in from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday raising the chance for a transition to some accumulating snow on the back end; especially, in “lake-effect” locations just downstream of Lakes Erie and Huron.
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Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the early part Saturday, this system will have moved to the central Gulf of Mexico where intensification will begin to take place. By Saturday night and early Sunday, tropical storm-like conditions will develop across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and other sections of the southeast US as well.
On Sunday, this powerful low pressure system will push northward up along the Atlantic seaboard and heavy rain and strong winds will likely develop in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Sunday and continue into the day on Monday. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to get underway so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air for a changeover to snow from later Monday into Tuesday; primarily, across higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.
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Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and likely produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the weekend, this system will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico region and begin to intensify. Signs are increasing that at this point the storm will take a turn to the north and east, produce tropical storm-like conditions across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and then likely ride right up near the eastern seaboard with heavy rain and strong winds on the table. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to hit so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air in this kind of setup for a changeover to snow in higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.
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