Strong low pressure sits off the New England coastline this morning and we’ll experience windy and cold conditions here in the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin the new work week. High pressure will build into the region by tomorrow and it’ll stay pretty chilly for this time of year, but a warm up arrives at mid-week. Temperatures on Wednesday should climb into the 60’s and it’ll stay quite mild on Thursday as well.
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Spring has officially begun and apparently no one notified Mother Nature. The first full day of spring will turn out much colder than Christmas Day in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In addition, accumulating snow is quite likely from later today through tonight in much of the I-95 corridor as low pressure intensifies off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Cold, dry Arctic air poured into the Mid-Atlantic region during the past 24 hours and this has allowed for some breaks of sunshine today and the possibility for some accumulating snow by later tonight.
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“Front-runner” moisture (indicated by arrow on radar image) has resulted in some rain in the DC metro region early this afternoon which has recently begun mixing with a bit of snow and sleet and it should change to all snow by late today in many locations north and west of the District before winding down later tonight. This batch of moisture has so far stayed primarily south of the PA/MD border, but there can be some mixed precipitation across southeastern PA by late today and early tonight. Meanwhile, there is an important upper level low spinning over Iowa this afternoon (indicated by arrow on radar image) and it will drop southeastward over the next 12 hours or so reaching the Southeast US by early tomorrow. After that, low pressure will move out of the Southeast US and towards the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters later Sunday and begin to intensify as it pushes northeastward. Precipitation is likely to expand northwestward from the surface low pressure system later tomorrow as it slowly intensifies and this could generate nuisance accumulating snow in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. In fact, there is still a chance that some snow could fall as late as late tomorrow night from the Philly metro region northeast to NYC and across New Jersey.
All areas from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC can receive accumulations by late tomorrow night on the order of a coating to 3 inches which would be primarily on grassy surfaces and after dark - perhaps even more accumulation that that across New Jersey. Should the coastal low pressure system strengthen more rapidly on Sunday and Sunday night than currently expected - not unreasonable given the potent upper-level low - then it still can turn out to be more than just a nuisance snowfall in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. We’ll continue to monitor it closely over the next 24 hours or so - stay tuned.
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One cold frontal system arrived late yesterday with scattered showers and its passage has sent temperatures down slightly for today, but an even more important and stronger cold front will slide through the region later today. This second frontal passage will usher in noticeably colder (Arctic) air for the weekend as cold high pressure builds to our north. By later tomorrow, moisture will already be streaming into the Mid-Atlantic region as a “front-runner” system heads eastward from the central US. Precipitation is likely to break out across the DC metro region by tomorrow afternoon and then likely reach the Philly metro region sometime tomorrow night. By early Sunday, low pressure will move towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline from the southeastern states. Precipitation intensity and potential snow accumulation amounts on Sunday and Sunday night will depend on the eventual storm track and speed at which this storm strengthens near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Current snowfall estimates are Dusting-3 inches in the DC metro region, 2-5 inches in the Philly metro region, and 3-6 inches in and around NYC - all still subject to change. The snow should be of the wet variety and should accumulate primarily on non-paved surfaces in the time period from later tomorrow into Sunday night.
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The potential continues for accumulating snow this weekend in the I-95 corridor as low pressure forms off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, but amounts are still uncertain as questions still remain on the exact storm track and speed of intensification. One possible solution is that a storm intensifies quite rapidly later this weekend and "hugs" the Mid-Atlantic coastline - this scenario would produce more in the way of snow accumulation for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Another possible outcome is that the storm is farther east in a location well off the coast and it intensifies more slowly - this would lead to less snow for the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor region. Preliminary snowfall estimates are 1-3 inches in the DC metro region, 2-5 inches in the Philly metro region, and 3-6 inches in and around NYC - all still subject to change. The snow would be of the wet variety and would accumulate primarily on non-paved surfaces roughly in the time period of Saturday night into Sunday night. Stay tuned.
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A cold front will arrive later today with scattered showers and thunderstorms and its passage will send high temperatures down some ten degrees or so between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. An even more important and stronger cold front will push through the region late Friday and this frontal passage will usher in noticeably colder (Arctic) air for the weekend as cold high pressure builds to our north. By early Sunday, attention will shift to the east coast as it is quite likely that a strong storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and - given the cold air that will be in place - there is a possibility for accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with several inches on the table.
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The real "March Madness"...signs continue to point to the threat for a strong coastal storm late Sunday that could bring significant accumulating snow to the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. A cold front will approach the region today and its passage will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms and high temperatures down some ten degrees between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. An even stronger cold front will push through later tomorrow and its passage will usher in noticeably colder Arctic air for the weekend as high pressure builds in to our north. By late in the weekend, strong low pressure is likely to form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it could actually generate accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor with several inches of wet snow on the table - stay tuned.
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Today and Thursday will be quite mild in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures well up in the 60’s in most spots and perhaps even 70+ degrees in the DC metro region. A cold front will arrive on Thursday and its passage will send high temperatures down some ten degrees or so between tomorrow afternoon and Friday afternoon. An even more important and stronger cold front will push through the region late Friday and this frontal passage will usher in noticeably colder (Arctic) air for the weekend as cold high pressure builds to our north. By Sunday, attention will shift to the east coast as it is quite likely that a storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and - given the cold air that will be in place - there is a possibility for accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. By the way, looking far ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks as we wind down the month of March and begin April.
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Today will likely turn out to be the mildest day of the week with temperatures climbing into the 60’s, but it’ll stay unsettled as well with a good chance of showers later in the day and early tonight. A cold front will approach on Thursday keeping it unsettled around here and a downward trend in temperatures will begin following the passage of that front. A secondary cold front will produce another threat for showers in the Mid-Atlantic region late Friday and then building high pressure to our north will usher in progressively colder air this weekend. By late Sunday, there are signs that a storm will form near the east coast and this potential storm could actually bring snow to portions of the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region, but there are still several days to go to this possible event so stay tuned – we’ll monitor it closely.
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Tomorrow will likely be the mildest day of the week with high temperatures well up in the 60’s in much of the I-95 corridor – perhaps even 70+ degrees in the DC metro region – but then a couple of cold fronts will create a downward trend in temperatures around here late in the week and this weekend. One cold front arrives on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will be followed by a secondary push of colder air late Friday. By the early part of the weekend, building high pressure to our north will usher in progressively colder air and then attention will shift to the east coast at the end of the weekend for the potential of a coastal storm.
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