Strong Arctic high pressure will move right on top of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and this will result in a relaxation of the pressure gradient which, in turn, will result in diminishing winds so the cold will be easier to take. The Arctic air mass will begin to retreat to the north tomorrow evening, but moisture will push in before it has a chance to fully retreat. As a result, snow is likely to break out around or shortly after midnight in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. As the Arctic air retreats, there will be a transition of snow to ice and ultimately to plain rain up and down the I-95 corridor, but accumulations will occur before the changeover and slippery conditions can be expected on the roadways.
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The Arctic winds will howl today and tonight with gusts to 50 mph possible bringing wind chill values to zero or below at times. Actual air temperatures will be confined to the 20’s for highs and there can be snow shower activity at anytime and even a possible heavier snow squall or two that makes it all the way from the Great Lakes to the coastline. Any snow activity could put down a quick accumulation and cause slippery road conditions. Temperatures will likely bottom out early Friday morning in the upper single digits near New York City, not far from 10 degrees in the Philly N and W suburbs, and around 15 degrees in the DC area. In fact, some record low temperatures are likely to fall on Friday in much of the Northeast US. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat by early Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air is likely to lead to some snow/ice accumulations in the region before a complete changeover to plain rain takes place around mid-day. Preliminary estimates for accumulations of snow/ice before the changeover to rain are on the order of 2-4 inches with the higher amounts to the north and west. Temperatures could very well then climb into the mid-to-upper 40’s later Saturday after the full retreat of the low-level Arctic air and more rain is likely during the afternoon hours.
The rain will tend to lighten up for awhile during Saturday night, but then it should return on Sunday as a low pressure system develops along the next Arctic front which will approach from the Midwest. Temperatures may actually peak near 50 degrees early Sunday, but then colder Arctic air will arrive during the late afternoon or early evening hours and it is possible that there is a brief changeover from rain to sleet and snow late Sunday or early Sunday night in the I-95 corridor. Following the passage of this next Arctic frontal system, the beginning of next week promises to very cold for the middle of December.
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No doubt this is a very complicated forecast in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next five days or so as we’ll experience a deep freeze which will be followed by a rather rapid thaw which will then be followed by another freeze. In addition, there will be multiple systems that can impact us with accumulating snow, ice and/or rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this evening in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by early Friday morning could bottom out in the upper single digits near New York City, not far from 10 degrees in the Philly suburbs, and around 15 degrees in DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest. This collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to accumulating snow and/or ice in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late Friday night/early Saturday before a mid-day changeover to plain rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday night/early Thursday and it’ll be even colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to be confined to the 20’s for highs and early morning lows on Friday could be in record-breaking territory in many parts of the Northeast US. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before an eventual late day changeover to plain rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by Friday morning could bottom out in the upper single digits near New York City, near 10 degrees in the Philly metro region, and 15 degrees in DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before a late day or nighttime changeover to plain rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by Friday morning could be record-breaking and bottom out in the single digits near New York City, near 10 degrees in the Philly metro region, and in the 10-15 degree range across DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before a late day or nighttime changeover to plain rain.
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Slightly milder air will push into the region today and any additional precipitation should fall in the form of plain rain. The big news this week will be the next Arctic blast that should arrive by Wednesday night/Thursday and this one will be bitter. It could be preceded by some snow shower activity on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the Arctic front approaches and then snow showers are possible from Wednesday night into Friday which will be a very cold and windy time period. Another system threatens this weekend with frozen precipitation that could turn out to be a significant snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario.
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This December is a far cry from last year which ended up warmer-than-normal virtually throughout the entire nation. It has been colder-than-normal so far this year throughout a good part of the nation and another significant Arctic blast will cross the northern US this week - reaching the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday night and Thursday – and this blast will be colder than the last one.
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The coldest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region is keeping temperatures confined to the 30’s which is well below normal for this time of year and strong NW winds are creating even lower wind chills. This air mass is apparently just a teaser. There are signs that another Arctic blast will occur later next week and it looks even colder – maybe significantly so. In addition to the Arctic air masses, there are likely to be two or three snow threats next week. The first system could bring some snow to areas north of the PA/MD border late Sunday/Sunday night on the order of a coating to an inch or two and there can be some freezing rain involved with this eventThe second threat could bring some snow to the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday as the next Arctic cold front approaches. After that, there may be a third threat during the weekend of the 17th/18th as the late week Arctic blast begins to retreat.
The 12Z Euro 850 mb temperature anomaly loop from today through next Friday shows well the movement across the US of the next Arctic air outbreak. It arrives during the mid-to late week time period in this region and by Friday, the Northeast US could be very cold. More details in this afternoon’s video discussion.
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