High pressure will bring us another day with plenty of sunshine and it’ll turn very warm and become more humid. The weather becomes unsettled on Friday and Saturday as a slow-moving frontal system approaches the region and this will increase our chances for some shower and thunderstorm activity. In addition, the remains of Tropical Storm Cindy will head in this general direction after making landfall early today. It is possible that some of the moisture associated with the remains of Cindy gets absorbed by the frontal system and, if so, that could exacerbate the rain on Friday night and early Saturday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure builds back into the region early next week and temperatures will be fairly comfortable for late June. In fact, the middle of the country will experience some downright chilly air for late June from later this weekend into next week.
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Following Monday’s cold frontal passage, the weather quieted down on Tuesday and it’ll stay relatively nice today with plenty of sunshine and warm conditions; however, scattered late afternoon showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The weather will become even more unsettled as we head towards the end of the week and we’ll have to monitor Tropical Storm Cindy now over the Gulf of Mexico (latest winds at 60mph). This system is likely to continue on a general northwest track today and make landfall early tomorrow near the Louisiana/Texas border region. One final note, NASA/Wallops postponed last night's scheduled sounding rocket launch until Saturday evening at the earliest.
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There are now two named tropical storms to monitor in the Atlantic Basin with one over the central Gulf of Mexico and the second over the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico and is likely to turn northwest over the next couple of days perhaps making landfall by early Thursday near Galveston, Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bret has pushed into the eastern Caribbean Sea and it will likely encounter some strong wind shear in the near term inhibiting further strengthening. It is unusual to have two named tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June with the last couple of occurrences in 1959 and 1968. The US hasn’t had a hurricane landfall during June for over 30 years, but the US had three June hurricanes in 1886 – which was the most active hurricane year on record for the US.
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A strong cold front passed through the region last night with lots of shower and thunderstorm activity, but the next few days look to be much quieter. Drier air will push into the area today on the heels of the frontal passage and there should be plenty of sunshine and warmth today, tomorrow and Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled again as we head towards the end of the week and during the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, the tropics have become quite active and we’ll continue to monitor one system now over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and another one, Tropical Storm Bret, now over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. The Gulf system is likely to intensify somewhat over the next couple of days - perhaps reaching tropical storm status as it slides to the north and then to the west. It is likely to then recurve and turn towards the northeast - perhaps eventually having an impact in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Bret is liable to face some strong wind shear over the next couple of days which is likely to weaken it eventually back to tropical depression status.
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A potent cold front is headed towards the I-95 corridor and it may help to generate severe thunderstorms in DC, Philly and New York City from late today into tonight. Heavy rainfall is likely at times during this event and flash flooding is a concern for the entire region. Any thunderstorm can produce damaging wind gusts, downpours, hail, intense lightning and even possible isolated tornado activity. The most likely timetable for these potential powerful storms is 3pm -9pm.
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A strong cold front will approach the region later today and the result will be numerous PM showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain this afternoon and evening will be heavy at times and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side. A few spots along the I-95 corridor could end up with a more than two inches of rainfall by tomorrow morning; especially, north of the PA/MD border. A secondary cold front is forecast to pass through our region on Wednesday night. High pressure is expected for Thursday with another warm front possible on Friday.
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A stalled out frontal system just to our south will advance northward this weekend as a warm front and then a new cold front will approach the eastern seaboard on Monday from the Ohio Valley - both of these fronts will keep us quite unsettled right through Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely today, tomorrow, and Sunday (Father’s Day), and then more numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday and Monday night with the next cold front and some of that rain can be heavy at times. As far as temperatures are concerned, it’ll remain fairly comfortable today, but the weekend will bring about a noticeable warm up and also more humid conditions following the passage of the warm front.
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The front that passed through the region yesterday has stalled out just to our south and it will turn around this weekend and head back to the north as a warm front. Given the close proximity of the frontal boundary zone, our weather will become more unsettled as we close out the work week with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for rain will continue on both weekend days and the highest likelihood for showers and thunderstorms will come on Monday as a strong cold front slides into the eastern US. As far as temperatures are concerned, it’ll actually be rather comfortable today and Friday compared to the recent heat, but the weekend will bring about a noticeable warm up following the passage of the warm front.
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The passage of a back door cool front will bring some relief today to the NYC metro region and it’ll actually become quite comfortable for Thursday and Friday with highs generally confined to the 70's on both days. This same front will stall out just south of here over the next 24 hours and then it’ll turn around and push northward as a warm front this weekend. With the front nearby, it’ll become increasingly unsettled as we go through the late week with the chance of showers and thunderstorms and the threat for rain will continue through the weekend and into early next week.
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The current heat wave will peak today with possible record-breaking temperatures in the middle 90's - but this hot spell also ends today. A back door cold front will drop through New England later today and it should then slide south of here by later tomorrow bringing noticeable relief to the region for the second half of the work week. That same front is likely to turn around and push northward as a warm front this weekend keeping us unsettled with the chance of showers and thunderstorms and its passage will bring warmer air back to the region for Saturday and Sunday. One final note, NASA postponed last night's planned sounding rocket launch at Wallops Island - the 6th postponement - and they are supposed to try again this evening between 9:04 and 9:19 PM.
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