There have been two major coastal storms in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the past six days and there is the chance for another one early next week. After a few relatively quiet days, a couple of waves of upper-level energy will slide towards the Tennessee Valley and Southeast US by the latter part of the weekend. This combination of energy will help to set off the formation of a strong surface storm near the Carolina coastline by late Sunday night or early Monday morning. At this time, the storm will then begin a turn up the east coast; however, it is just a little early to say how far north it will go. Many computer forecast models tend to push the system to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but the overall weather pattern and teleconnections (e.g., -NAO) certainly warrants the close monitoring of this system over the next few days.
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There have been two major coastal storms over the past five days or so in the Mid-Atlantic region and our stormy March weather pattern is not over yet. As far as temperatures are concerned, it looks like it’ll remain below-normal on average for the next several days and that pattern might even last through much of the remainder of the month. In terms of storm threats, the next one of concern will move into the Southeast US later this weekend. It looks like it will become a strong storm and ultimately ingest plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Some computer model forecasts then shunt this system just to our south and east early next week, but I think this overall pattern certainly allows for the possibility of a left turn up the coast...stay tuned.
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The next few hours will feature intense snow bands across eastern PA, interior NJ and southeastern NY with as much as 2-3 inches per hour in some spots. As a result of tremendous dynamics associated with this system, thunder snow is also a possibility in some areas and this would be associated with intense snowfall rates for a brief period of time. Latest radar echoes show heavy precipitation bands rotating around the intensifying low pressure area and this will be the case through much of the afternoon. Given the significant accumulations of heavy, wet snow, power outages are indeed a concern as some tree limbs could be weighed down to their breaking point.
The snow winds down late today and early tonight from southwest-to-northeast. Driving conditions will be treacherous in times of intense snow and temperatures will hold near the freezing mark. Total accumulations of more than a foot are possible by the end of the storm in some of the northern and western suburbs in the Philly-to-NYC corridor with lesser amounts in the cities. The DC metro region is escaping the action today as it is primarily taking place to its northeast. This is largely a rain event at the southern NJ coastline with flooding the biggest concern for now. The next storm threat comes on Sunday/Monday.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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Low pressure will develop intensify today as it rides up along the east coast to a position near the central New Jersey coastline by later in the day. Enough warm air will come in from off the ocean to keep the precipitation as a mixture for awhile in the NYC metro region, but the dominant precipitation type in the northern and western suburbs will be snow. In fact, small-scale heavy snow bands may form across eastern PA, New Jersey and southeastern NY later today as intense “frontogenesis” takes place in the atmosphere. These snow bands can result in a couple inches of snow per hour and “thunder snow” is also a possibility. Given the nature of the snow (i.e., heavy and wet) and the fact that there was rain at the onset, power outages will be a concern today in the entire I-95 corridor. The snow winds down later this evening and then we’ll have colder-than-normal weather for the latter part of the week. Another strong storm will have to be watched for Sunday/Monday.
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An intensifying and very dynamic coastal storm on Wednesday will have a major impact on the I-95 corridor from Philly-to-NYC-to-Boston with significant accumulations of snow in suburban areas to the north and west of these metro regions. In the big cities, the precipitation will likely be mixed for a longer period than in the suburbs and this should limit slightly overall accumulations in those particular spots. In the DC metro region, much of the intensification with this coastal storm will take place to the northeast and this will limit the overall impact in that area, but some accumulating snow is still on the table including in the overnight hours. The snow will be of the heavy, wet variety and, unfortunately, this can lead to a fresh round of power outages.
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An intensifying coastal storm on Wednesday will have a major impact on the I-95 corridor from Philly-to-NYC-to-Boston with significant accumulations of snow in suburban areas to the north and west of these metro regions. In the big cities, the precipitation will likely be mixed for several hours during this event and this would limit somewhat overall accumulations in those particular areas. As far as the DC metro region is concerned, much of the intensification with this coastal storm will take place to the northeast and this will limit the overall impact in that area, but some accumulating snow is still on the table. The snow will be of the heavy, wet variety and, unfortunately, this can lead to a fresh round of power outages.
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Low pressure will develop along the Carolina coastline tonight and then intensify rapidly as it rides right along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday. Precipitation will break out later today or early tonight; primarily, in the form of rain, but as colder air gets wrapped into the system and “dynamical cooling” develops, the rain will change to snow in the overnight hours and snow should be the predominate precipitation type on Wednesday in suburban locations, but mixing will likely continue in NYC. There can be intense bands of snow on Wednesday with a couple inches per hour possible and thunder snow is also on the table during this event. The heaviest snowfall accumulations are likely to be in the N and W suburbs where 4-8 inches is on the table with locally higher amounts and 2-4 inches is likely in NYC. Any shift in the expected storm track would have an impact on the axis of heaviest snow. Stay tuned.
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High-latitude blocking over northern Canada/Greenland is very strong today and it will stay in place for the next several days during a stormy period for the Mid-Atlantic region. One coastal storm will intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday and likely bring a significant snow accumulation to much of the I-95 corridor from Philly-to-Boston; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of the big cities with 6+ inches on the table. Very chilly air for this time of year will follow the mid-week mauler and then another storm may threaten the Mid-Atlantic region next Sunday/Monday.
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Strong high-latitude blocking remains in place to our north and there will be two more storms to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next week or so. One storm will push towards the North Carolina coastline on Tuesday night and then intensify as it rides up along the coastline on Wednesday. Precipitation is likely to begin in the NYC metro region from this next coastal storm tomorrow evening probably in the form of rain, but then as colder air gets wrapped into the system and “dynamical cooling” develops, the precipitation is likely to change to accumulating snow by early Wednesday and several inches are on the table. Preliminary estimates for the northern and western suburbs of NYC are 4-8 inches with slightly less expected in the city. Looking ahead, yet another storm is likely to impact the region in the Sunday/Monday time frame and this could be a real big one; however, it is way too early to say if this will feature rain or snow. One final note and not what anyone wants to hear, given the possibility of heavy wet snow on Wednesday following some rain at the onset and the expectation for strong wind gusts (though nothing like last storm), the threat for power outages has to be thrown out there once again.
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A major storm is intensifying off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it is now running into an “atmospheric brick wall” on its attempt to move to the north. As a result, this powerful storm will be forced to loop back around and head to the south-southeast over the next several hours. Extreme winds will be a major impact from this storm in the entire I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC and wind-whipped accumulating snow is coming to the Philly, NYC metro regions and throughout New Jersey for the late morning and afternoon hours (i.e., blizzard-like conditions).
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