On this hot afternoon, thunderstorms are forming across upstate Pennsylvania as a cool front slowly advances towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Instability is on the increase in the I-95 corridor region as indicated by the noticeable rise during the past three hours in one instability parameter known as the “Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)”. As CAPE levels increase to unstable levels, a surface trough of low pressure has formed just to the east of the Appalachian Mountains and thunderstorms are heading into this particular unstable region.
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Today should be the hottest day of the week and likely the hottest day of the year so far; however, the good news is that the heat should peak this afternoon and the rest of the week looks better in terms of extreme temperatures. A cool front will grudgingly pass through the region on Tuesday and then low pressure could track along the frontal boundary zone at mid-week. As temperatures climb well into the 90’s this afternoon, there can be a few pop-up thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region; primarily, to the north of the PA/MD border. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight, but lessen on Tuesday following the frontal passage. High pressure should take control around here for Thursday and Friday, but then move off the coast early this weekend which will open the door for more moisture to head eastward into the region.
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While the upcoming weekend will be much better than our recent string of wet weekends, it'll become very warm by Sunday afternoon as temperatures flirt with the 90 degree mark for highs and humidity will be on the increase. Intense heat and high humidity is then likely around here on Monday with temperatures likely climbing to the mid and upper 90's for highs and several high temperature records could fall in the eastern states as we begin the new work week. So far this year, 90 degree days have been relatively few and far between in the I-95 corridor. The highest temperatures of the year in NYC actually came in early May, but those high temperature marks of 2018 should easily be surpassed on Monday. The good news is that the excessive heat looks like it’ll peak on Monday with somewhat cooler conditions likely by the middle of next week.
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So far this year, 90 degree days have been relatively few and far between in the I-95 corridor. The highest temperature of the year in Philly and DC actually came in early May with 91 degrees measured at Reagan National Airport (DCA) on May 2nd and 91 degrees at Philly Airport (PHL) on May 3rd. These high temperature marks of the year should easily be surpassed on Monday, June 18th, with 95-100 degrees on the table from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. The good news is that the excessive heat looks like it’ll be a one-day affair on Monday with somewhat cooler conditions likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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The official Atlantic Basin tropical season was barely underway in June of 1972 when a polar front interacted with an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Within a few days, a tropical depression formed and the system moved slowly eastward and emerged in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the month. The depression began to intensify over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and soon became Tropical Storm Agnes – the first named storm of the 1972 tropical season. Ultimately, Agnes would reach hurricane status, grow to a diameter of about 1000 miles, and become the costliest hurricane at the time to hit the US and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania was the prime focus of its wrath.
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A cool front passed through the region last night and while it’ll stay warm today, there will be a noticeable drop in the overall humidity and the breeze will pick up out of the west-to-northwest - perfect weather for Flag Day. High pressure builds into the region today and it looks like it will be able to maintain much control of our weather through the upcoming weekend with only an isolated shower or two possible on Saturday night and Sunday. Monday may turn out to be the hottest day so far this season with highs well in the 90's, but it turns cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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A warm front is passing through the region this morning with a couple of showers and then a cool front will arrive tonight. It’ll turn warmer and more humid today ahead of the advancing cool front and then high pressure will take over for the latter part of the week. In fact, there is a good chance this high pressure system can maintain control through the upcoming weekend which would break our string of wet weekend.
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High pressure has expanded southward into our area from the Northeast US and it’ll help provide very nice weather conditions for today with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures and humidity values. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow and it’ll turn warmer ahead of this system and it’ll bring with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Following the frontal passage, high pressure will return for later this week and it’ll remain seasonably warm for mid-June. There is a chance this high pressure system can maintain control through the upcoming weekend – but no guarantees based on recent history.
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After another weekend with some rainfall in the region, we’ll start off the new work week on a cool note with increasing amounts of sunshine. High pressure will build southward into the area by later today and Tuesday promises to be quite a nice day around here. A cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and it’ll bring with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Following the frontal passage at mid-week, high pressure returns for later this week and it’ll be seasonably warm for mid-June.
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A cold front will approach the region from the north later today and then it’ll stall out to our south this weekend. As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase by tomorrow and that threat will continue on Saturday night as well, but much of tomorrow will be rain-free. High pressure developing to our north on Sunday will try to bring improvement to the NYC metro region with some sunshine likely along with comfortable temperatures.
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