The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October. After a milder start to the new work week on Monday, it’ll be noticeably cooler today following the passage of a cold frontal system. Another strong cold front will arrive late tomorrow with strong winds and temperatures could bottom out in the upper 30’s in some spots by early Thursday morning for the first time this season and there can be some frost in the normally coldest suburban locations. Unseasonable cold will grip the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday as highs struggle to reach 50 degrees (normal high is now 65 degrees). Yet another cold shot will arrive for the second half of the weekend and Sunday will have a feel of winter to it in parts of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow in the first Great Lakes snow event. Widespread frost is possible around here late Sunday night/early Monday morning.
Read More
It is not unusual this time of year to see a strong tropical system become the catalyst for a significant pattern change and indeed, the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week has seemingly opened the flood gates for cold air masses to drop southeastward into the eastern US from Canada. Canada suffered through one of their coldest Septembers on record, but the widespread cold was largely bottled up north of the border. The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October.
Read More
High pressure pushes off the coast today and we’ll have to deal with a couple of frontal systems as we begin the new work week. First, a warm front lifts through the region early today and then a cold front will push across the region early tonight. As a result, it’ll be a damp start to the week with scattered showers in the Mid-Atlantic region and maybe a late day/evening gusty thunderstorm. Another cold front may push through the area on Wednesday which should be followed by high pressure for the end of the week. Following the frontal passage, Thursday promises to be the coolest day of the week with way below-normal temperatures. In fact, it looks like there will be numerous cold air outbreaks during the rest of the month of October.
Read More
Tropical Storm Michael is now headed away from the east coast and out into the open Atlantic and a new air mass will flood the Mid-Atlantic region today riding in on stiff northwest winds. This new air mass will be much cooler and less humid than recent days and overnight lows in the 40’s will take place for the first time this season. After a dry day today, there will be a weak disturbance that can set off a few showers late tonight and early Saturday before dry and cool weather returns for Sunday.
Read More
Tropical Storm Michael is now located over central North Carolina and moving rapidly northeastward at 23 mph with max sustained winds of 50 mph. Torrential rains circulating around the center of the tropical storm are now closing in on the DC metro region and this large blob of moisture will continue moving northeastward over the next few hours. A strong cold front is also pressing east at this time and is combining with moisture from Michael to generate bands of showers and thunderstorms in the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Read More
Hurricane Michael made landfall yesterday in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” category 4 system and today it will accelerate to the northeast as a tropical storm. Its tropical moisture field will interact with a strong cold frontal system advancing towards the east coast and the result will be some heavy rainfall today and tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In fact, periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms into later tonight may end up resulting in a couple inches of rainfall in much of the I-95 corridor. By early Friday, post-tropical Michael will be working its way into the open Atlantic and the strong cold front will push through our region. Winds will pick up on Friday out of the northwest and much cooler and drier air will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region. For the first time this season, temperatures will drop into the 40’s for overnight lows beginning late Friday night/early Saturday morning and then again over the weekend. A fast-moving upper-level disturbance could throw a few showers our way late Friday night and Saturday before a dry, cool day ends the weekend on Sunday.
Read More
Hurricane Michael is closing in on the Florida Panhandle as a strong category 4 storm with max sustained winds at 150 mph (at 11:50 am). This is an especially dangerous hurricane for the Florida Panhandle since it will arrive at or near its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows a distinct eye and central pressure has continued to fall in recent hours and is now around 923 mb which would make this the 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the US. Once Hurricane Michael moves inland, weakening will take place; however, hurricane-force winds should extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. In fact, it is likely to maintain hurricane status as it pushes into southern Georgia tonight - perhaps as a cat 2. From there Michael will head towards the Carolinas where heavy rains and strong winds will occur in an area with very well saturated grounds (Florence).
Read More
Hurricane Michael will make landfall later today in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” hurricane as it continues to slowly intensify in an overall favorable environment and moves over very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will become increasingly influenced by an approaching upper-level trough over the middle of the country and will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline. Heavy rain and strong winds with hurricane-force gusts will extend from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas which is already a rain-soaked region thanks to the stalled out Hurricane Florence of last month. While the remnants of Hurricane Michael will stay southeast of the immediate I-95 corridor, there can be some heavy rain here on Thursday as an interaction with a strong cold front takes place. Following the passage of Michael, quite cool and dry weather will follow in the Mid-Atlantic for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Read More
Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2) and an eye is becoming more visible on satellite imagery. There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola – as wind shear in its general vicinity continues to decrease. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain and strong winds are likely in the already rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Hurricane Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as the tropical system interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Read More
Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2). There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain is likely in the rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as it interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Read More
