*Extreme cold is headed to the north-central US – potentially historic for places like Chicago, Illinois - and it will spread to the east coast at mid-week…near zero degrees likely here by Thursday morning.* High pressure is in control today as we begin a new work week, but the quiet weather will change on Tuesday as a strong cold front slides toward the eastern seaboard. Low pressure will form along the cold frontal boundary zone on Tuesday and a mixed bag of precipitation is likely to change to all snow by early tomorrow night. Accumulations are possible by late tomorrow evening on the order of 1-3 inches and travel may become hazardous as temperatures fall. An Arctic boundary will slide through on Wednesday with strong wind gusts and possible snow showers - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. The brunt of the Arctic blast arrives on Wednesday night and temperatures by Thursday morning are likely to be near zero degrees with a minimal warm up expected on Thursday afternoon.
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All signs continue to point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the north-central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. As the Arctic air pushes towards the eastern seaboard, low pressure may form along the strong cold frontal boundary zone possibly resulting in some snowfall late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic region. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the bitter cold air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass is likely to become a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero or so in Chicago, Illinois – awfully close to their all-time record low of -27°F set in January 1985. The Great Lakes ice cover doubled in the past week and will increase dramatically over the next week.
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A strong cold front passed through the region late yesterday and ushered in a much colder air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today will be confined to the 30’s and there will be a secondary cold frontal passage by tonight that will result in even colder conditions on Saturday. High pressure will build into the region this weekend and then a weak disturbance can produce a rain or snow shower on Sunday. By Tuesday, a strong cold front will slowly push towards the eastern US and low pressure may form along the frontal boundary zone with the chance here of rain changing to snow. Bitter cold air will follow the frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region for Wednesday and Thursday.
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All signs point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass has the potential of becoming quite a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero in Chicago – awfully close to the all-time low of -27°F set in January 1985.
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There will be heavy rain at times today as a strong cold front heads towards the east coast and an intense jet streak passes overhead. The heavy rain will be accompanied by unseasonably mild conditions this morning and gusty winds out of the south-to-southeast just ahead of the frontal system. The rain will taper off later this afternoon and temperatures will drop sharply as the next in a series of cold shots arrives from our northwest. The next couple of days will be dominated by high pressure and there will be plenty of sunshine each day, but temperatures will be well below-normal for this time of year. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread brutally cold air outbreak next week that will impact much of the central and eastern US.
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Despite the fact that it’ll turn unseasonably mild later tonight and early Thursday in much of the eastern US, the overall cold weather pattern shows no signs of slowing down. There will be another outbreak of cold air in the eastern US for the Thursday night/Friday/Saturday time period, but the coldest core of that air mass (relative-to-normal) will be centered over south-central and southeastern Canada. Next week, however, it looks like a brutally cold air mass will plunge southward right into the central US and eventually make its way to the east coast - and the coldest temperatures relative-to-normal will be in the US.
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Another soaking rain event is headed to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and heavy rain tomorrow morning will be aided by a powerful upper-level jet streak. Showers will begin this evening and then evolve into a steadier and heavier rainfall after midnight and then the rain can come down heavily at times from late tonight through the morning hours on Thursday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, winds will become an important factor late tonight and on Thursday with gusts possible past 40 mph as warmer air surges northward along the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will rise in the overnight hours perhaps peaking well into the 50’s tomorrow morning, but will then drop sharply later tomorrow afternoon following the passage of a strong cold front.
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Heavy rain is on the way for the I-95 corridor in the time period from late tonight until early tomorrow afternoon. Milder air will surge northward along the eastern seaboard in the overnight hours and any evening rain activity will become steadier and heavier after midnight as temperatures slowly rise and winds pick up out of the southeast. Windy and unseasonably mild conditions will start the day on Thursday along with heavy rain at times, maybe even a rumble of thunder. Much colder air returns late tomorrow following the passage of a strong cold front and the 50 degrees early in the day will likely transition to the 30's by late in the day. It'll be quite cold on Friday and Saturday despite plenty of sunshine each day with temperatures well below-normal for this time of year.
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Strong high pressure will drift over the Mid-Atlantic region today and this will result in a much calmer day compared to Monday as the overall pressure gradient relaxes in the area. While still colder-than-normal, the cold weather today will be much easier to take as wind chills will no longer be a factor. Low pressure will push towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday and with this track to our west, milder air should push northward along the eastern seaboard. As a result, rain is likely to arrive here late tomorrow, but a few ice pellets or snowflakes cannot be ruled out at the onset. The rain continues into Thursday and then colder air arrives at the end of the storm. In fact, there is a chance for a changeover late Thursday from rain-to-snow as the colder air mass arrives.
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Brutal cold air poured into the Mid-Atlantic region yesterday on the heels of the powerful weekend storm and today will easily be the coldest day of the year so far. Temperatures today will struggle to climb through the lower teens and the strong NW winds will add to the pain generating much lower wind chill values. The next storm system of note will reach us at mid-week and is likely to produce another round of mixed bag of precipitation for the region.
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