The first five days of November have been colder-than-normal across a large part of the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least the middle part of the month. The next blast of cold air will reach the eastern states in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and then another shot comes by the early-to-middle parts of next week. Rain will accompany the arrival of the first cold frontal system later tomorrow into tomorrow night and it can even end as some snowflakes in parts of the I-95 corridor. Accumulating snow is likely late tomorrow night in far interior regions of the NE US from southwestern NY to northern Maine with the influx of the cold air. The Arctic frontal system arriving early-to-middle next week could feature the development of low pressure along its boundary zone and that puts rain-changing-to-snow on the table for the I-95 corridor.
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A significant cold air outbreak is headed to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from the northern part of Canada at the end of the work week and another is coming for the early part of next week. As high pressure ridging intensifies across Alaska and western Canada, the upper-level air flow will develop in such a manner that will allow for the transport of air from way up in Canada to the central and eastern US. As the cold air pushes to the southeast late this week, moisture will push northeast along the advancing frontal boundary zone and rain is likely here late tomorrow into tomorrow night. The rain could change to snow showers late tomorrow night in the I-95 corridor and there will be accumulating snow from western New York State to the upper part of Maine with this influx of cold air. Next week's cold blast could bring a threat of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US.
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November has started off much colder-than-normal across the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation into at least the middle part of the month. The cold start to the month follows a colder-than-normal October across the CONUS with more than twelve-hundred sites experiencing the lowest temperature ever in the month of October and, even-more impressive, many locations set their monthly record for the month as a whole. Multiple cold air outbreaks will ride along the polar jet stream during the next couple of weeks from the northern part of Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with the first one arriving in the Thursday night/Friday time frame and another next Monday. The late week cold blast will also feature rain-changing-to-snow in parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic and NE US and several inches can accumulate from western New York State to upstate Maine.
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It’ll turn a bit milder today ahead of a weak cold frontal system, but then cooler again for the next couple of days. A significant cold air outbreak appears to be headed in this direction from central Canada for the end of the work week and, at the same time, moisture is likely to advance to the northeast from the southern states along the frontal boundary zone. There is a chance that this could result in a rain-changing-to-snow showers type of scenario from late Thursday night into early Friday morning for at least parts of the region. Whether or not the snow showers actually materialize, the cold blast will be the bigger story and temperatures Friday night will be unusually cold for early November. Another very impressive cold blast for the early season is destined to arrive here early next week.
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November has started off colder for the nation as a whole than all but two years (1991, 2002) going back to the late 1970’s and there won’t be much let up for the eastern 2/3rds through at least the middle part of the month. The powerful frontal passage late last week in the eastern US was part of an overall pattern change and the warmth of October has transitioned to the cold of November. There will likely be multiple cold air outbreaks over the next couple of weeks that ride along in the polar jet stream from central Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. After a bit of a warm up on Tuesday, it’ll turn cooler again at mid-week, but it is the late week when another impressive cold air blast will arrive. This next shot of cold air will drop southeastward from Canada and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the Thursday night/Friday time period. Another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the central and eastern US early next week. Both of these cold air outbreaks may present some snow possibilities for the Great Lakes and interior NE US and even to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The overall weather pattern continues to look quite chilly for the next couple of weeks with a persistent flow of air from central Canada into the Mid-Atlantic region. While it’ll turn a bit milder on Tuesday, the passage of another cold front will bring more chilly air to the region for the mid-week and quite a cold air mass for early November will arrive at the end of the week. At the same time, low pressure may pull out of the southern states and we’ll have to watch for the possibility of rain or even rain-changing-to-snow at week’s end. Another cold blast is destined to arrive in the central and eastern US next week.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that not only brings about a change in air mass for the short-term, but it can be associated with a longer-term pattern change and that looks to be the case with the powerful cold front that blasted through the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US last night. In this particular case, the frontal passage happened to occur right around the transition from October-to-November and the overall temperature pattern indeed looks to me like it’ll flip across the nation. In October, temperatures were generally above-normal in the eastern US and below-normal in the western can central states - and in some cases significantly so. All signs point to a flip of this pattern in November with colder-than-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US/Midwest/Great Lakes and warmer-than-normal conditions in the western part of the country.
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Last night’s frontal passage has ushered in much colder air for the region and the winds will stay a big factor as well through a good part of the day. Temperatures will be confined to the lower 50’s for highs this afternoon following the near 70 degrees that we experienced on Thursday. Winds will diminish tonight and temperatures will drop to the freezing mark late tonight under clear skies and that will be the first time this season for many locations. A secondary cold front will usher in an even cooler air mass on Sunday and a widespread freeze is likely late Sunday night/early Monday morning as high pressure moves directly overhead.
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All the ingredients are coming together for a wild weather event tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US. Vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere associated with a powerful jet streak will combine with a low-level jet, very warm and humid air, and an intensifying surface low pressure system to generate a squall line along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary zone. This squall line should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region of DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between 8 and 11 PM with torrential downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, 50-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Much colder air will arrive late tonight riding in on strong NW winds and a secondary push of colder air will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze from late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the I-95 corridor. In fact, the overall weather pattern will tend to change dramatically with tonight’s powerful cold frontal passage with colder-than-normal conditions likely in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US for much of the month of November following a warmer-than-normal October.
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Today will be an unusually warm day for the end of October with windy conditions and occasional showers although there will be much rain-free time as well. A powerful cold front will slowly push in our direction today from the Ohio Valley and a squall line is likely to form along its boundary zone late in the afternoon extending in a north-to-south fashion from central NY-to-central PA-to-western Virginia. This squall line will arrive here late this evening bringing us heavy downpours, possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and wind gusts to 50+ mph. The most likely timetable for this Halloween Night wild weather is between the hours of 8PM and 2AM. Power outages are on the table as many leaves remain on trees which makes them more vulnerable than say a month from now. Behind the front, winds will turn to a west-to-northwest direction and can gust past 40 mph towards Friday daybreak. It'll turn much cooler late tonight and for Friday and then an even colder air mass will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze around here late Sunday night/early Monday.
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