The month of February begins on Saturday and it’ll turn quite warm in the Mid-Atlantic region by the beginning of the work week and some records may be broken. In fact, it looks like it’ll become much warmer-than-normal in DC, Philly and NYC in the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and potentially into Thursday as well. Unfortunately, the warm up next week will come with numerous chances of rain as a slow-moving cold front becomes the focus area for multiple waves of low pressure.
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High pressure over New England today will move towards the Canadian Maritimes later today and low pressure will form near the Carolina coastline in the overnight hours. This low will move to a position well off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later tomorrow and then an upper-level feature passes overhead tomorrow night. High pressure returns early next week and it’ll turn noticeably warmer in the Monday through Wednesday time period with highs well up in the 50’s. A slow-moving cold front will then impact the region during the second half of next week with multiple shots of rain as low pressure ripples along the frontal boundary zone.
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Low pressure is likely to form near the Carolina coast on Friday night and then intensify as it moves to the northeast on Saturday. Some precipitation is likely to reach back into the I-95 corridor on Saturday as the low moves to a position well off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. With temperatures only moderately cold, a mix of rain and snow is possible in this area from the offshore low. On Saturday night, a northern stream wave of energy will move overhead and it can cause some snow shower activity as temperatures aloft drop some. After a chilly day on Sunday, it’ll turn noticeably warmer next week for a few days before some colder air makes a return after mid-week.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next couple of days and two of these – one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream - are likely to interact by early Saturday to generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is then likely to intensify as it pushes to the northeast to a position well off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Saturday and it can throw some rain and/or snow into the I-95 corridor.
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A weak cold front passed through the region late last night and it’ll usher in a bit colder air for the next couple of days. The overall pattern of chilly and dry weather should continue through the rest of the work week with high pressure still in control. Low pressure will try to intensify near the Carolina coastline on Saturday and it could produce some rain and snow in the I-95 corridor. At this point in time, it doesn't look like a significant event, but it wouldn't take much of a change to get more impact than currently expected. Chilly air will follow for the second half of the weekend and there can be some snow shower activity on Saturday night and early Sunday.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next few days and a couple of these are likely to interact and generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline on Saturday. The fact that there may be multiple waves competing for energy and that these are rather fast-moving systems may inhibit the storm from intensifying rapidly until after it pushes off the east coast thereby potentially limiting its impact on the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures are likely to borderline on Saturday with respect to precipitation type so if precipitation does develop, there would likely be a battle zone in the I-95 corridor between rain and snow. Most of these upper-level waves of energy are still way off in the distance so details on this threat won’t be ironed out until late this week. Looking ahead to next week, there are signs that some of the cold that has been bottled up over Alaska in recent days will finally “break loose” in early-to-mid February and head towards the central and eastern US.
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Strong high pressure has expanded into the eastern US and it should continue to produce dry and moderately cold conditions. Temperatures should climb into the lower 40’s for highs today, but should be confined to 40 degrees or slightly under for the next couple of days. A wave of energy in the upper atmosphere could help to spawn a coastal storm this weekend, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. If a storm were to form, temperatures would be borderline in terms of rain versus snow given the fact that there will not be an Arctic air mass in place as we begin the weekend.
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Strong high pressure will build into the eastern US early this week and it should result in a quiet week with moderately cold and dry conditions for much of the time. Temperatures should climb into the 40’s for highs today and then to near 40 degrees on Tuesday. There are some signs for storm development near the east coast this weekend, but it’s too early for any kind of certainty and, with no Arctic air in place, it would likely be a battle between snow and rain.
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A soaking rain event is on the way for the first half of the weekend. Strong high pressure has pushed off the east coast and this will open the door for moisture to head this way from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A strong upper-level wave of energy will help to generate surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley later today and then a second system will form nearby on Saturday. This second system will become the focus area for significant rainfall and heavy rain is possible here on Saturday; especially, during the afternoon hours. A thunderstorm is also possible during this soaking rain event. On Sunday, some sunshine will return to the Mid-Atlantic region, but it'll be rather chilly with strong NW winds.
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It could be worse….it could be snow although many might prefer that this time of year. A significant rain event is likely for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the Friday night/Saturday time period as a strong wave of energy moves into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend. A wave of low pressure will initially form over the Ohio Valley by later tomorrow and then a secondary system will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. This secondary system will become the main player and it is likely to result in some soaking rainfall for DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. On the heels of the storm, windy and cold conditions will develop on Sunday and there can be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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