The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues today with multiple systems on the scene from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to western Africa. Sally has intensified into hurricane status over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is a very slow-moving system in an area of weak wind flow. As a consequence, Sally is going to be a major rain producer for the northern Gulf coastal region and some spots can receive up to two feet of rain over the next couple of days. By later tomorrow, this system will begin a push to the north and east, but it'll take a couple more days to reach the Carolinas as it'll remain a slow mover. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will be dropping southeastward at week's end and head towards the Mid-Atlantic region. This cold front will pass through by later Friday ushering in the coolest air mass of the season so far. One final note, the sunshine today in the Mid-Atlantic region will be dimmed by high-level smoke from the wildfires as it has crossed the country from the western states.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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Strong high pressure across south-central Canada will build to the east over the next couple of days and it will control the weather around here in the Mid-Atlantic region through at least mid-week. This Canadian high pressure system is the anchor to a chilly air mass for the middle of September and it will bring us some of the coolest conditions so far this season over the next few nights. Late in the week, the weather becomes more uncertain as the remains of what is now Tropical Storm Sally may become intertwined with a strong cold front that will be closing in from our northwest. It currently appears that the heaviest rains from the remnants of Sally will stay to our south over the Carolinas, but we'll have to monitor that threat over the next couple of days. Following the passage of the strong cold front, the coolest air of the season so far will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during this upcoming weekend.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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A cold front will stall out just to our south today, but it’ll push far enough away to usher in a somewhat more comfortable air mass. After a nice day on Saturday, this same front will lift northward on Sunday as a warm front and it could generate showers and thunderstorms as we close out the weekend. High pressure to our northwest will build into the region early next week and another very pleasant air mass will drop across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic.
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If you try to pinpoint the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season to one particular day in terms of the number of active storms, it actually comes down to today, September 10th. Well, here we are and right on queue, there are numerous waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to just off the west coast of Africa. A few of these tropical waves are relatively close to the US and will have an impact in the near-term while another few systems are potential concerns for the second half of September. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains unusually quiet in terms of tropical activity in what should also be an active time of year. In fact, the overall tropical activity in the world’s largest ocean has been way below-normal in 2020 and this has contributed to a below-normal tropical season so far for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
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Strong high pressure has pushed offshore and a cold front is approaching the Mid-Atlantic region from our northwest and it’ll keep it unsettled around here today with additional showers and possible strong thunderstorms. With the added boost of tropical moisture, some of the rainfall today and tonight can be heavy at times. This same front will tend to stall out later tonight just to our south and it’ll battle with high pressure to our north over the next couple of days. A comfortable air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday and Saturday; however, a few showers cannot be ruled out with the stalled front in close proximity. The front lifts northward on Sunday as a warm front and it could generate showers and thunderstorms as we close out the upcoming weekend.
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Strong high pressure that has controlled our weather during the past several days will lose influence today and we'll have an increase in the chance for late day/nighttime showers and thunderstorms to go along with warm and more humid conditions. The threat of rain will continue on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold frontal system and it’ll stay on the warm and humid side. High pressure builds into the area from the north on Friday and it’ll result in comfortable conditions around here on both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a warm front will arrive from the south and we’ll have a return of unsettled weather conditions to end the weekend.
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After a spectacular stretch of nice weather that encompassed the long holiday weekend, high pressure will remain in control of our weather for one more day in the Mid-Atlantic region. After some early morning fog, skies will become mainly sunny and temperatures should climb into the 80’s this afternoon after a fairly cool start to the day. The weather becomes more unsettled again on Wednesday and Thursday as a slow-moving cold front approaches the area with a renewed shot of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns at the end of the week with nice weather once again quite likely for Friday and Saturday before it turns unsettled again on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Rocky Mountain States are experiencing wild weather conditions with summer-like heat on Monday to accumulating snow today in many higher elevation areas from Wyoming to New Mexico and, in some cases, significant amounts.
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