The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with one named storm (“Fred”) just south of the Dominican Republic on the eastern side of the Caribbean island of Hispaniola and a second system intensifying in the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm “Fred” is likely headed to the Florida Keys by the early part of the weekend and then to the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal. TS “Fred” could then reach the Panhandle region of western Florida by early next week and the remains may then push northward through the eastern states later in the week. Meanwhile, the second Atlantic tropical system could end up taking a similar track as “Fred” – perhaps impacting the same northern part of the Caribbean.
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The next few days will be quite hot in the Mid-Atlantic region with afternoon temperatures likely reaching at least the middle 90’s in the NYC metro region. The chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue given the high moisture content and generally unstable atmospheric conditions; however, much of the time will be rain-free. A cold front should arrive on Saturday and provide some relief in temperatures as we head through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical system near the Caribbean island of Hispaniola has intensified enough to be classified as a named storm ("Fred"). It is likely to impact southern Florida by the early part of the weekend and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Longer term, it is quite possible that the remains of this tropical storm push northward through the eastern states to potentially result in some rainfall around here sometime later next week.
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An extended stretch of hot and humid weather is setting up for the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from today through Friday. High temperatures will climb to 90 degrees this afternoon and perhaps reach the middle 90’s on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and there will be a daily shot at afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cold front should arrive at week’s end and provide some relief as we head into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic has become active once again and a system now over the eastern Caribbean Sea is very likely to become a named storm ("Fred"). It could have an impact on southern Florida by the early part of the weekend and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico…stay tuned.
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After “Elsa” came ashore in northwestern Florida on July 7th, the tropical Atlantic experienced an extended quiet stretch of weather….that quiet stretch is now over. There are two tropical systems currently located in the central Atlantic and it is the frontrunner that is of increasing concern. This system is nearing the Caribbean Sea and it has a good chance of becoming a named (“Fred”) storm in coming days and could ultimately have an impact on southern Florida and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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An extended stretch of hot and humid weather is setting up for the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures will climb to the mid 90's during the second half of the week and there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front should arrive at week’s end and provide some relief as we head into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic has become active with the formation of a couple of systems that will have to be monitored as we head towards the middle of the month.
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Comfortable temperatures for early August will remain in the region for the next couple of days after a nice start to the new month, but the weekend will become quite warm. Moisture is abundant along the Gulf coastal region and some of it will try to push northward later in the week likely reaching as far north as the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula. Elsewhere, the tropical scene has been quiet in the Atlantic Basin for several weeks now, but there are strong signals that activity will ramp up in coming days.
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Comfortable temperatures for the early part of August will remain in the region for much of the work week after a nice start to the new month. Moisture will be abundant along the Gulf coastal region over the next couple of days and some of it will try to push northward later in the week likely reaching as far north as the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula. Elsewhere, the tropical scene has been quiet in the Atlantic Basin for several weeks, but there are signs that activity will ramp up in coming days.
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The temperature pattern across the US during the month of July was pretty close-to-normal (+1.1 degrees F) and there was an extended quiet stretch in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, there has not been a single named storm in the tropical Atlantic since “Elsa” which came ashore as a tropical storm in northwestern Florida on July 7th. Several signals point to an end to the quiet phase in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, it is not unusual for tropical activity to pick up during the month of August as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin continue to climb towards their usual early-to-mid September peak. In addition, the unfolding upper-level height pattern across North America will likely become more favorable for a pick up in tropical activity and an increased threat to the US. Specifically, high pressure ridging will build and intensify in coming days over the Northeast US and southeastern part of Canada – often a precursor to tropical activity that can impact the Gulf of Mexico or the east coast of the US.
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A cold front is pushing through the region this morning and a reinforcing comfortable air mass for early August will move into the Mid-Atlantic as we begin a new work week. In fact, the overall weather pattern will result in below-normal temperatures in much of the eastern half of the nation for much of this week with an upper-level low stationed over the northeastern quadrant. There will be a lot of moisture across the Gulf coast and southeast US in coming days and some of this may try to push northward later in the week.
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There have been multiple reports of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes in New Jersey (e.g., Mercer County) from the severe thunderstorm activity of late yesterday and across the river in Bucks County of southeastern Pennsylvania. The damage is being assessed today by the National Weather Service to determine the strength and longevity of the tornadic activity. All of this activity took place upon the arrival of a strong cold that is now in the process of moving off the coastline. High pressure builds into the region as we end the work week with a much more comfortable air mass in place including the lowering of humidity and the weekend will actually start off with temperatures not far from 60 degrees –below the norm for the last day of July. Another cold front could produce more showers and storms here late in the weekend and its early week passage will usher in more comfortable air for the bulk of next week – the first full week of August.
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