Contact Us

Use the form on the right to contact us.

You can edit the text in this area, and change where the contact form on the right submits to, by entering edit mode using the modes on the bottom right. 

         

123 Street Avenue, City Town, 99999

(123) 555-6789

email@address.com

 

You can set your address, phone number, email and site description in the settings tab.
Link to read me page with more information.

backlit-stratus-clouds-2013-04-05.jpg

Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | **After a cooler day, it'll turn much warmer tomorrow ahead of an incoming strong cold front...chance for showers on Thursday and even a late day strong thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

It’ll turn out cooler today in the NYC metro region as an easterly flow of air developed following the passage of a “backdoor” frontal system.  There will also be plenty of clouds around today with the chance for a bit of light rain or drizzle from time-to-time. The weather becomes much warmer again on Thursday ahead of an approaching strong surface cold front from the Ohio Valley. There will be an increasing chance of showers on Thursday and perhaps even a late day or evening strong-to-severe thunderstorm.  It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather for the weekend and there should be some sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nighttime hours.

Read More

10:00 AM (Tuesday) | ***Severe weather outbreak next couple days likely to include numerous tornadoes… significant snow in the cold sector…strong storms possible near east coast on Thursday***

Paul Dorian

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of an upper-level jet (300 mb) which will combine with an low-level jet (850 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Overview

There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and another one is on the way. Severe weather including the threat for tornadoes is likely from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley and then the risk shifts to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  One of the key ingredients for the severe weather outbreak will be a strong surface cold front and it reaches the east coast later Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe storms in that region as well.  Other ingredients include multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere which will enhance the chance for rotation and tornadic activity.  In the cold sector of the storm, significant snow is going to fall during the next couple of days from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Looking ahead, this may be the end of the severe weather outbreaks for awhile warm air may finally flood the central and eastern states later next week.

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of a low-level jet (850 mb) which will combine with an upper-level jet (300 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Details

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley region from Iowa/Illinois to the north and eastern Texas/Louisiana in the south. In much the same manner as with recent severe weather outbreaks, a vigorous upper-level trough will help to spawn cyclogenesis in the middle of the nation at the same time high-level ridging intensifies over the eastern states.  An intensifying upper-level jet streak (southwesterly) will push into the Great Plains and then the Mississippi Valley region and a low-level jet (southerly) will become involved as well.  The combination of these two jet streaks will lead to deep-layer wind shear in the warm sector of the surface low pressure system potentially leading to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain and hail will be on the table with this severe weather outbreak.

Severe weather is a threat from later today into the overnight hours across much of the Mississippi Valley region and this risk will shift to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center

By tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the east with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and southwestward back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front pushes to the east on Wednesday, the cold and dry air mass on its backside will clash with warm and humid air all the way up into the Great Lakes region from the Gulf of Mexico.  This same front will push towards the eastern seaboard on Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor later in the day or early Thursday night. 

The cold front clears the east coast by Friday and sets the stage for quieter weather in the northeastern states on Friday and through the upcoming Easter weekend. It will turn cooler on Friday with a chilly air mass moving into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic anchored by high pressure with its origins in Canada. There should be plenty of sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread warm air surge later next week into the central and eastern US - eliminating that “battleground” region in the middle of the country - and this could very well make this upcoming severe weather outbreak the last one in an extended period of time.

There will be significant accumulating snow over the next couple of days in the cold sector of this storm from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

One final note, this unfolding weather pattern will not only produce numerous tornadoes from later today into Wednesday in the latest in a series of severe weather outbreaks, it is likely to also result in significant accumulating snow. Specifically, the region from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota will see some substantial snowfall during the next 72 hours or so with as much as 1-2 feet in some locations. Ultimately, the accumulating snow will reach the northern part of New England with Maine, for example, likely to receive several inches by late in the week.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube

Video discussion:


 

7:00 AM | *Much warmer today following the passage of a warm front*

Paul Dorian

Warmer air on the south side of a warm front will dominate the scene around here today and there will be plenty of sunshine. After a cooler Wednesday, it turns warmer again on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold frontal system pushing in this direction from the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, the chance of showers will rise on Wednesday and the passage of the system on Thursday may be accompanied by a strong to potentially severe thunderstorm. It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather for the weekend and there should be some sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights.

Read More

10:30 AM | ***Another severe weather outbreak on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday likely to include numerous tornadoes…substantial accumulating snow from the Rockies to the Dakotas***

Paul Dorian

There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday.  The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.

Read More

7:00 AM | *Becoming breezy and milder today as a southerly flow develops*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will stay in control of the weather around here today and it’ll become breezy and much milder after a chilly start to the new work week.  Warmer air on the south side of a warm front will dominate the scene on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a cold front arrives on Thursday. It’ll turn a bit cooler on Friday following the frontal passage and - at this vantage point - it appears high pressure may be in control around here for the upcoming Easter weekend.

Read More

10:00 AM | ***Damaging wind gusts possible this morning with rain/scattered thunderstorms… sun this afternoon to boost chances for late day/evening severe weather including isolated tornadoes***

Paul Dorian

Strong low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning continues to wreak havoc across the nation. Last night, tornadoes broke out from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and, in the cold sector of the storm, accumulating snow fell across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Snow continues today across the Great Lakes region this morning and powerful potentially damaging winds have reached the Mid-Atlantic region to along with rain, scattered strong thunderstorms, and very mild conditions.  A dry slot should result in some sunshine this afternoon in the I-95 corridor which will only boost chances for late day/evening severe weather with damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes on the table.

Read More

7:00 AM | ***Powerful cold front to bring us potentially damaging wind gusts, showers and possible strong thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

It turns much milder today with afternoon temperatures peaking in the middle 50’s.  Showers will be possible by later today and likely tonight along with breezy conditions. Temperatures will climb to even higher levels on Saturday just ahead of an incoming strong cold front perhaps reaching the 70 degree mark. There will be occasional showers on Saturday and Saturday night to go along with those unseasonably warm conditions and perhaps even a thunderstorm. The biggest factor on Saturday and Saturday night will likely be the winds with gusts to 40+ mph on the table. Despite some sunshine, it’ll be noticeably cooler on Sunday following the passage of the strong cold front with temperatures nearly 20 degrees lower than Saturday and there will be a stiff NW wind as well.

Read More

9:30 AM | ****Severe weather/tornado outbreak on Friday night in the Mississippi Valley…damaging winds gusts Ohio Valley/eastern US later Friday and Saturday associated with strong cold front****

Paul Dorian

Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the likelihood for another outbreak on Friday night centered on the Mississippi Valley region. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west behind it. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the severe weather outbreak on Friday night will plow eastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the eastern states possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.

Read More

7:00 AM | **Cool, breezy weather today for the Yankees home opener...strong wind gusts possible later tomorrow and Saturday with powerful cold front**

Paul Dorian

Following the passage of a cold front, it’ll be much cooler today for the Yankees home opener and despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will likely peak in the mid-to-upper 40’s – some ten degrees below the normal for this time of year. It turns much milder on Friday with possibility of late day showers ahead of the next cold front and temperatures can climb to the mid or upper 50’s. Temperatures will climb to even higher levels on Saturday just ahead of the strong cold front perhaps reaching the 70 degree mark, but there will be occasional showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. The biggest factor from late tomorrow into Saturday will likely be the winds which will be quite strong and potentially damaging with gusts to 50 mph on the table. Despite some sunshine on Sunday, it’ll be noticeably cooler following the next cold frontal passage with temperatures nearly 20 degrees lower than Saturday and there will be a stiff NW wind as well.

Read More

7:00 AM | **A strong cold front heads this way for the weekend...powerful wind gusts on the table from late Friday and Saturday**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will stay in control of the weather through today resulting in plenty of sunshine and then a cold front slides through the region later tonight. Following the frontal passage, it’ll be unseasonably chilly on Thursday, but then it turns much milder on Friday with possible late day showers ahead of an incoming strong cold front.  Temperatures will climb to even higher levels on Saturday just ahead of the strong cold front perhaps reaching the 70 degree mark, but occasional showers are likely and perhaps even a thunderstorm. The biggest factor late Friday and Saturday will likely be the winds which will be quite strong and potentially damaging with gusts to 50 mph or higher on the table. Despite some sunshine on Sunday, it’ll be noticeably cooler following the frontal passage with temperatures some 20 degrees lower than Saturday and there may be a stiff NW breeze as well.

Read More