While it won’t be a widespread or long-lasting event, a fast-moving low pressure system will pack a little bit of a punch on Tuesday and it could produce some decent rainfall for a limited portion of the Mid-Atlantic region. The best chance for the locally heavy rainfall will likely extend from the southwestern part of Pennsylvania to the DC metro region and then eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula and southeastern Virginia. In addition to the production of some rainfall, this system will bring cooler conditions to the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday with and east-to-northeast low-level flow of air likely to develop on the north side of the southeastward-moving storm system.
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A frontal system passed through the region last night and it stalls out today across central Virginia with dry air building in behind it across our area. Low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary zone later tonight and Tuesday bringing us cooler conditions and a slight chance of showers. High pressure takes over at mid-week and the second half of the week is looking dry and warm.
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An upper-level low pressure system continues to push slowly away from the coast and high pressure will build into the region for the weekend. As a result, today will be a bit on the cool side of normal with a slight chance for a PM shower and Saturday is likely to be the nicest day in quite awhile across the Mid-Atlantic region. The weather for Sunday and Monday should feature comfortably warm conditions, but a couple of disturbances can bring scattered showers to the region on both days, maybe even a thunderstorm or two. Showers and thunderstorms are even more likely on Tuesday with the approach of a frontal system and it should turn cooler again by the middle of next week.
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Temperatures will remain below-normal for the next couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region as an upper-level low slowly pulls away from the Northeast US coastline. Cold air in the upper atmosphere will continue to keep it somewhat unstable around here; consequently, there can be scattered showers both today and on Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice with quieter and milder conditions as high pressure to the north takes control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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An unusually cool air mass remains entrenched in the Mid-Atlantic region and an upper-level low spinning overhead will keep it quite unsettled here at mid-week. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds, scattered rain showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation spots to our north and west can experience small hail or graupel mixed in with the rain later today and tonight. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up quite nicely.
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An unusually cool air mass for early May has engulfed much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation and it’ll stick around for a few more days. The Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US will be stuck with well below-normal temperatures through much of the remainder of the week with a deep upper-level low pressure system spinning around overhead. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating early in the day will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds and scattered rain showers. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US can even experience ice pellets (graupel) and/or snowflakes mixed in with the rain during the next couple of days. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week.
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After back-to-back soaking rain events, the Mid-Atlantic region will experience quite cool and unsettled conditions for much of this week with a daily chance of showers. An upper-level low will spin around the northeastern states in coming days and cold air aloft will result in instability in the atmosphere leading to the daily chance of patchy clouds and showers. The air mass will feature well below-normal temperatures for the early part of May and indeed can be cold enough for a few ice pellets (graupel) to mix in at times across some of the coldest, higher elevation suburbs. Winds will also be quite noticeable during each of the next few days with gusts to 30 mph possible.
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Rain associated with a northeastward moving storm system will spread into the NYC metro region later today and it’ll continue into the day on Saturday. Some of the rain will become heavy at times, watch for localized flooding, and winds will increase in strength from an easterly direction. In fact, at the height of the storm, flooding may become an issue along coastal sections of Long Island and New Jersey given the fact that a stiff east-to-southeast flow of air will continue for a several hour period.
By the time we get to the second half of the weekend, a multitude of upper-level lows will begin to consolidate into one as the northernmost system will become the dominant player and acts to “absorb” the other lows. The end result will be one deep upper-level low by the early part of next week centered over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface (and very similar to the first system on Friday and Saturday), an initial (primary) low will push towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday night/early Monday. As with the first event, this second one will result in soaking rains for the NYC metro region and winds will become quite a noticeable factor as well. An unusually chilly air mass for early May will follow the second storm for the first half of next week and instability showers may take place from time-to-time.
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An active weather pattern will continue across the nation into early May largely fueled by the continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US. One such cold shot will push east on Thursday from the south-central states into the northern Gulf region and this “clash” between the incoming cold, dry air and the entrenched warm, humid air mass is likely to result in strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from Texas-to-Florida and perhaps as far north as the Tennessee Valley.
This storm system will push northeast on Friday and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline later Friday night. A similar scenario will develop from Sunday into Monday with an initial (primary) low pushing towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm likely to form near the northeastern US coastline. The end result…back-to-back soaking rain events for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from Friday into Monday.
Following the passage of the second storm system, very chilly air for early May will flood the northeastern quadrant of the country for the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and the atmosphere will be quite unstable. As a result, there are likely to be some instability rain showers during the first half of next week and snowflakes and/or ice pellets can mix in across some of the higher-elevation, interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
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The weather will improve today with early day clouds and showers giving way to some sunshine…better enjoy it as back-to-back soaking rain events are on the for Friday/Saturday and Sunday/Monday. High pressure will build back into the area today, but its influence will be short-lived. A series of low pressure systems will pass through the area from tomorrow into early next week providing us multiple rounds of rain. In addition to the rain, this wet spell will generally be on the cool side with temperatures below-normal and it’ll be quite windy for much of the time. Unusually cool air for the beginning of May will follow on the heels of the second storm system for the first half of next week.
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