The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has come to life in recent days with two systems located in the tropical Atlantic. The front running system has reached named tropical storm status (“Bret”) and it could very well intensify into a hurricane during the next couple of days as it heads towards the eastern Caribbean Sea. Later in the week, however, a few factors are likely to come together to cause a weakening of this initial tropical system. A second system following closely behind Bret could reach named tropical storm status as well in coming days (would become “Cindy”) as it heads on a general westward track.
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The weather is becoming more unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be a daily shot at rain from mid-week through the upcoming weekend. High pressure to our north combined with low pressure to our south will intensify an easterly flow of air at the lower levels of the atmosphere keeping us on the cool side of normal during the next few days and quite moist. As we head to the weekend, the weather will turn warmer and the threat of showers will continue and thunderstorms will be added to the picture. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic has come to life with a couple of systems to monitor. The front running system has reached tropical storm status (now named “Bret”) and it can become a hurricane in the near-term; however, weakening is likely for this system thereafter as we head towards the weekend.
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High pressure builds southward into the northern Mid-Atlantic for the next couple of days and then the weather will get unsettled for much of the second half of the week. Low pressure and a large area of moisture will dominate the scene in the southeastern states later this week and this system can spread showers to the north at times into the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, the tropical scene has come to life in the eastern Atlantic and a couple systems will have to be monitored in coming days. The front running system is very likely to intensify into at least tropical storm status over the next few days, but it is unknown whether its ultimate path will take it to the Caribbean Sea or if it will shift to the north and east of the Windward Islands. The second system has a smaller chance of intensifying into tropical storm status.
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Low pressure will drop southeast from the Great Lakes today bringing a widespread rain event to the Mid-Atlantic region. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will begin as early as mid-day in many areas, some of the rain is likely to be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can be strong-to-severe. This system should then push only slowly to the northeast, meander over New England on Saturday, and keep it somewhat unsettled around here with breezy conditions and the chance for a shower or thunderstorm during the mid-day or afternoon hours. Father’s Day Sunday promises to feature plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region and warm conditions.
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High pressure returns to the Mid-Atlantic region today, but another system will renew our chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and some of the storms can be strong. Low pressure will drop southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday and it looks like it will bring a widespread and welcomed rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region. This system should then only slowly push northeast and it’ll meander over New England on Saturday keeping it unsettled around here with the chance for a couple of showers and a thunderstorm as we begin the weekend. Father’s Day Sunday promises to be full of sunshine and warm with high temperatures in the lower 80’s.
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After a nice day on Tuesday with low humidity and comfortable temperatures, the mid-week will become unsettled as an upper-level low spins nearby helping to destabilize the atmosphere. As a result, there can be showers today and PM thunderstorms are on the table as well and any of these can produce brief downpours and small hail. High pressure returns for Thursday and then another front can cause some shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday to close out the work week.
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Much-needed rainfall fell in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and western New Jersey. The next several days will bring additional chances of rain to the area with the first threat coming on Wednesday as an upper-level low pressure system moves close by. As a result, the atmosphere will destabilize later tomorrow as colder air moves in aloft and an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms is quite likely. In fact, some of the thunderstorms that do form later tomorrow can become quite strong with brief downpours and small hail a possibility. Another batch of showers is possible on Friday as another upper-level low spins its way into the Mid-Atlantic region and yet another disturbance can raise the chances for rain in the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
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After an unsettled day on Monday, a frontal system passed through the region in the overnight hours and the air mass to follow for today will feature lower humidity levels and comfortable temperatures. An upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes for the past couple of days will push overhead at mid-week and this will renew the chances here on Wednesday for showers and PM thunderstorms. High pressure returns for Thursday and another front can spark a shower or thunderstorm on Friday.
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Low pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning has a frontal system extending southward from its center to the Southeast US and this front will only inch along as it approaches the eastern seaboard. As such, low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from mid-day through the evening. Some of the rain that falls later today can be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can reach strong-to-severe levels with the potential of damaging wind gusts and small hail in addition to the heavy downpours. The upper-level low associated with this system swings overhead at mid-week increasing the chance for more shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday after a less humid day on Tuesday featuring comfortable temperatures.
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Finally…some beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin the new work week. An upper-level low pressure system moves to the Great Lakes today and a surface cold front will extend from its center to the southeastern US. This front will slow down as it approaches the eastern seaboard and waves of low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone. As a result, there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms today and tonight…some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels with potential damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall. Following the passage of the front, it’ll turn less humid on Tuesday with comfortable temperatures, but another front approaches the region on Wednesday increasing the chance for more shower and thunderstorm activity.
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