Many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region were hit by downpours on Saturday and the threat for more torrential rain continues today as we close out the weekend. A vigorous system sliding east across the Ohio Valley will enhance upward motion in the region and low-level moisture remains high. As a result, any shower or thunderstorm that forms later today and tonight can produce significant rainfall amounts on top of what fell yesterday leading to flash flooding concerns. In addition, enough destabilization may occur in the atmosphere to help generate sever thunderstorm activity which could bring damaging wind gusts to many areas.
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The combination of high low-level moisture content and an incoming frontal system will keep the atmosphere somewhat unstable today in the NYC metro region. As a result, there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity with the highest chance to the north and west of the immediate metro area. After perhaps a little bit of a reduction in the chances for rain on Saturday, a potent system is likely to drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to bring heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and potentially some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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The combination of high low-level moisture content and a couple of frontal systems will keep the atmosphere very unstable in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days. Any shower or thunderstorm that develops from later today into Saturday can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high moisture levels and the expected slow movement due to an overall weak wind field and little steering flow. A potent system is likely to drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region and this next system is likely to extend the chances for heavy rainfall and bring about a chance for severe thunderstorms as well.
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High moisture content in the lower part of the atmosphere and a weak frontal system stationed nearby can help to generate scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the NYC metro area. The unsettled weather pattern will continue on Friday as a cool front approaches the region from the west enhancing instability in the lower part of the atmosphere. Any shower or thunderstorm that forms over the next couple of days can produce significant rainfall amounts given the high moisture content and the expected slow movement of rain cells in the area. This active weather pattern will continue this weekend and a potent system headed this way for Sunday can result in a more widespread, heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A nearby frontal system tends to weaken today and this will reduce the chances for rainfall somewhat; however, isolated-to-scattered PM showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The unsettled weather pattern returns later in the week and continues in full force through at least the first half of next week with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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A front pushed into the region on Monday and has stalled-out nearby resulting in a continuation of unstable atmospheric conditions. As such, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today with the highest chance during the afternoon and early evening hours. The front tends to dissipate by tomorrow and this may reduce chances for rain slightly on both Wednesday and Thursday. The unsettled weather pattern will return in full force, however, by the end of the week and for the weekend as well.
One final note, if you thought June was on the cool side of normal in the Mid-Atlantic region, you were correct. The month of June ended up 2.9 degrees below-normal in Philadelphia, 2.2 degrees below-normal in D.C., and 2.0 degrees cooler-than-normal in Central Park (NY). Temperatures reached the 90 degree mark for highs only once during the entire month in both Philadelphia and New York City and only four times in Washington, D.C. The month of May was also cooler-than-normal in all three Mid-Atlantic locations.
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The combination of an upper-level trough, high moisture content in the lower atmosphere, and a weak frontal boundary zone will be enough to result in very unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early tonight enhancing the chance for severe thunderstorm activity. A somewhat similar setup will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the 4th of July, with the greatest chance once again coming during the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get hit during this next 36 hours, but any thunderstorm that does form can contain torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado or two. The overall unsettled weather pattern that began in late June may relax a bit on Wednesday and Thursday; however, it should resume in full force by the end of the shortened work week and continue through the upcoming weekend.
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A front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm later today and early tonight can be on the strong side with heavy rain and gusty winds. Unfortunately, the frontal system will hang nearby on Tuesday - the 4th of July - and the weather will be pretty much a repeat performance of today with the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. The front will dissipate some by mid-week and the chance of showers and thunderstorms may become somewhat diminished on Wednesday and Thursday; however, the overall unsettled weather pattern lasts right into the upcoming weekend.
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Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather as we head into the weekend, but then a couple of frontal systems will bring an unsettled weather pattern back to the Mid-Atlantic region. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase later tomorrow and there is a chance for some heavy rainfall late Sunday and Sunday night.
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Weak high pressure will stay in control of the weather today in the Mid-Atlantic region providing us with rain-free conditions and seasonably warm conditions. A couple of frontal systems will head this way by the weekend making for unsettled weather conditions from later tomorrow into early next week with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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