The atmosphere is already quite unsettled this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region as another disturbance pushes through and there can be a shower or thunderstorm at just about any time and some of the rain today can be heavy at times. After a comfortable weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures will remain at moderately warm levels today, but then likely soar well up into the 90’s during the second half of the week…indeed, the hottest weather so far this summer in the Wednesday through Friday time period. High pressure will shift off the coast by mid-week opening the door for hotter air to push east from the center of the nation.
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Showers and thunderstorms remain a threat in the area today as a cold front slowly works its way through the area from northwest-to-southeast. Any storm can be on the strong side and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Following the passage of the front, skies will clear later tonight, and the weekend can actually feature back-to-back rain-free days for a change - something not seen here much this summer season. Temperatures will be moderately warm today and during the weekend with highs confined to 80’s.
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There is a threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and more numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely late tonight and early Friday. Any of the showers and thunderstorms from later today into Friday morning can result in heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. A combination of ingredients will come together to destabilize the atmosphere and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the overnight hours. Any storm that forms for the late night/early Friday hours can be strong and heavy downpours are on the table. The frontal system involved will push through the area later tomorrow likely setting the stage for back-to-back rain-free days this weekend featuring moderately warm conditions.
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A potent system will cross the Great Lakes later today at the same time a front to our south begins to advance northward as a warm front. The combination of these systems - along with loads of available low-level moisture - will result in an increasing unstable atmosphere from later tonight into Friday. While there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm late today or early tonight, the main action time period, I believe, will be from about the wee hours of the morning into mid-day or early afternoon on Friday when showers and thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous. Any late night and early-to-mid Friday storm can be strong and downpours are on the table…watch out for the possibility of flash flooding. High pressure will then begin to build into the region later Friday night and there is reasonable hope that the weekend actually features back-to-back rain-free days in the Mid-Atlantic region along with comfortably warm temperatures.
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The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
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A weak frontal system will be close enough in proximity today to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NYC metro region. Another and even more potent system will push across the Great Lakes on Thursday and this one can result in widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The threat of rain can linger into Friday, but there is a chance for a decent weekend following the passage of this late week frontal system to the western Atlantic.
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A frontal system approaches the region later today and it will likely produce scattered mid-day and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This same stays close by on Wednesday maintaining a threat here of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and then another frontal system approaches later Thursday in this still on-going active weather pattern. The late week front could result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms and, hopefully, it will clear the coast by week’s end and pave the way for a decent weekend.
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More than ten inches of rain has fallen during the past 30-days in virtually every state from Florida-to-Maine. These excessive rainfall amounts are quite impressive considering the fact that tropical moisture has not really been involved in the overall weather pattern other than perhaps across Florida earlier in the tropical season. In fact, the heart of the Atlantic Basin tropical season lies ahead beginning typically during the month of August and continuing into October with the climatological peak right around the middle of September. There is nothing yet on the horizon for the eastern US in terms of tropical activity; however, there is a concern that should a tropical system impact this region in coming weeks, the currently very well saturated grounds could set the stage for some flooding issues.
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After an unsettled second half of the weekend, the weather will settle down some today in the Mid-Atlantic region as weak high pressure pushes into the area. With plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should climb to 90 degrees for afternoon highs and the humidity will remain on the high side. A frontal system heads this way on Tuesday increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms. The second half of the week will feature temperatures peaking out in the mid or upper 80’s and additional frontal systems will renew the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms.
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Heavy showers and strong storms have formed early today across east-central PA and they will impact the NYC metro region and northern NJ between 7 and 8AM…
An unsettled weather pattern has returned to the Mid-Atlantic region and the threat of severe weather and heavy downpours is on the table. A spinning upper-level low over the south-central part of Canada will send multiple waves of energy in coming days around the base of the large-scale trough keeping it quite active in much of the eastern US. One such short-wave will enhance upward motion later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will, in turn, increase the chance for some strong-to-severe PM thunderstorm activity…any shower or storm that forms can result in heavy downpours. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue late Saturday and Sunday as well with temperatures on both days peaking in the 80’s.
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