A cool front will approach the region late today and this will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms from later this afternoon into early Friday. A pleasant air mass will follow the passage of the front for the bulk of the day on Friday and it promises to be quite comfortably cool for tomorrow night and pleasant on Saturday. It turns warmer on Sunday with temperatures climbing well up into the 80’s by afternoon and the 90 degree mark can be reached on Monday afternoon. The next cool front will likely pass through on Monday night ushering in another comfortable air mass for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
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We have entered the second half of August and this is typically when tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin. Indeed, there are a couple of impressive waves to watch in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and there may be a threat to deal with in the eastern US/Gulf of Mexico by the last week of August; however, of more immediate concern is the current activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is a growing chance that significant moisture from a tropical system makes its way into the Southwest US by later this weekend and early next week - and this includes a very real threat for excessive rainfall across southern California. In addition, winds may become quite high depending on the ultimate storm track that this developing tropical system undertakes.
Elsewhere, a building ridge of high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will result in an intensifying heat wave by this weekend across the central states and it is likely to expand to the Great Lakes and Midwest. While the heat may ultimately expand all the way into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, this would be just a one or two day affair and the overall weather pattern for the northeastern states remains quite favorable for very comfortable air masses to reach this area from central Canada.
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A cool front crossed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday night and AM clouds and showers will give way to partial sunshine in the NYC metro region. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out with the front hanging rather close by. Another frontal system approaches the area later Thursday and this will increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms from later tomorrow into early Friday. More comfortable air returns for the bulk of the day on Friday and for Saturday and then it’ll turn quite warm again on Sunday and Monday ahead of the next cool front which likely arrives on Monday night.
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A strong cool front will cross the Mid-Atlantic region later today and it can generate another round of showers and thunderstorms; primarily, focused on the PM hours…some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. High pressure will follow the passage of the cool front on Wednesday, but additional frontal systems will keep it somewhat unsettled later in the week.
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Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms rocked the Mid-Atlantic region last Monday and a somewhat similar overall weather pattern can bring a repeat performance from late today into Tuesday. In a situation like a week ago, several ingredients will come together in the atmosphere that will raise the chance for heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms which can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes. These ingredients include a vigorous upper-level low that is currently pushing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley, copious amounts of available moisture, strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a strong surface cool front that ultimately crosses the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday. The time period for the potential heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms will be from late today into Tuesday night.
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A warm front arrives in the region later today and a strong cool front will cross the area on Tuesday. The combination of these two systems and other ingredients in the atmosphere will once again raise the chance of some heavy rainfall around here from early tonight into Tuesday afternoon and there is the threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity with damaging wind gusts a risk. Following the passage of the cool front, the second half of the week will likely be rather quiet for a change featuring generally warm and dry conditions.
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Drier air returns to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday as high pressure edges its way into the area and temperatures will be comfortably warm. The weekend will feature warm conditions and a weak frontal system can cause some shower and thunderstorm activity late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Any shower or thunderstorm that forms on Saturday can produce heavy rainfall. A stronger cool front will approach from the northwest early next week and it could produce a round of showers and thunderstorms around here on Monday night.
Note – Perseid meteor shower peaks late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
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Low pressure will pass through the region later today bringing with it occasional rain and possibly a strong thunderstorm or two… some of the rain can be heavy at times. High pressure will follow for the last day of the work week producing warm and dry conditions across the Mid-Atlantic. The weekend will feature warm conditions and primarily rain-free although a few showers are possible late Saturday and Saturday night, maybe a thunderstorm. Looking ahead, a potent system may reach the Mid-Atlantic region late Monday raising the chances (once again) for heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
Note - Perseid meteor shower peaks late Saturday night/early Sunday morning
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A widespread severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region this past Monday and a key ingredient was a vigorous wave of low pressure aloft that crossed the Great Lakes on a path towards the northern Mid-Atlantic. Other ingredients included multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere, a strong surface cool front, and an influx of very moist air from the southeastern states on the front side of the front. A similar overall weather pattern may repeat itself from later Monday into Monday night. While still several days away, many of these same factors may indeed come together early next week and the result can be another round of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and it will stay in control for another day here at mid-week. A frontal system will arrive on Thursday and there will be occasional rain with possible thunderstorms. Some of the rain that falls on Thursday can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong. Drier air returns for Friday and the weekend looks to feature quite warm conditions with just a chance for a few showers on Saturday night. Looking ahead, a potent system may reach the Mid-Atlantic region late Monday raising the chances (once again) for heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
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