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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | ***Dry weather into the weekend...significant storm impacts us here with rain and wind later Sunday into Monday***

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain moderately cold again today after the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday, but it does turn milder on Friday and the milder conditions should last through the upcoming weekend. Powerful low pressure is going to turn northward this weekend after pounding the Florida Peninsula and other sections of the SE US and push right on through the eastern states from south-to-north. This storm will produce lots of rain and wind around here from later Sunday into Monday. Some of the rain can be heavy and some of the winds can get very strong; especially, along coastal sections where beach erosion and flooding are on the table. Colder air pushes in on the back side of the storm by Tuesday, and there may be some lingering precipitation from what likely turns out to be a slow-moving storm system.

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11:50 AM | ***Signs continue to point to a powerhouse storm system that will have wide-ranging impacts this weekend and early next week from the Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the early part Saturday, this system will have moved to the central Gulf of Mexico where intensification will begin to take place. By Saturday night and early Sunday, tropical storm-like conditions will develop across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and other sections of the southeast US as well.

On Sunday, this powerful low pressure system will push northward up along the Atlantic seaboard and heavy rain and strong winds will likely develop in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Sunday and continue into the day on Monday. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to get underway so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air for a changeover to snow from later Monday into Tuesday; primarily, across higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.

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7:00 AM | *Reinforcing cold shot arrives today...turns milder for Friday and Saturday...storm threat late weekend/early next week*

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain moderately cold today and the passage of a weak cold front will usher in a reinforcing chilly air mass for tonight and Thursday. It does turn milder on Friday and the milder conditions should last through the upcoming weekend. Strong low pressure is likely to turn up along the eastern seaboard this weekend and it could result in rain and wind around here from later Sunday into Monday.

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12:45 PM | ***Monitoring prospects for a powerhouse storm system that can impact the Gulf of Mexico region this weekend and the east coast early next week***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and likely produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the weekend, this system will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico region and begin to intensify. Signs are increasing that at this point the storm will take a turn to the north and east, produce tropical storm-like conditions across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and then likely ride right up near the eastern seaboard with heavy rain and strong winds on the table. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to hit so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air in this kind of setup for a changeover to snow in higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.

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7:00 AM | *Moderately cold with dry conditions next few days*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with the continuation of dry conditions. It’ll remain moderately cold today and the passage of a weak cold front early tomorrow will usher in a reinforcing chilly air mass for Wednesday and Thursday. It does turn milder on Friday and the milder conditions should last through the upcoming weekend. Strong low pressure may turn up along the eastern seaboard by the end of the weekend and it could result in rain and wind around here for Sunday night and Monday.

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6:30 AM | **Precipitation winds down this morning...winds remain strong through the day**

Paul Dorian

After the passage of a strong cold front and associated low pressure system, showers will wind down this morning and winds will remain strong throughout the day. Colder air has poured into the eastern states on W-NW winds and those winds can gust to 35 mph before slowly diminishing later this evening. The chilly air mass will stick around in the Mid-Atlantic region for much of the week with high temperatures generally confined to the 40’s through Thursday.

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8:00 AM (Sunday) | ***Heavy rain, strong winds, thunderstorms on the way to the I-95 corridor…temperatures tumble in the overnight hours with back end accumulating snow likely***

Paul Dorian

A heavy rain event in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor gets underway this morning and continues into Sunday night with increasingly strong winds that develop ahead of an incoming strong cold front. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern during this event with as much as 2-3 inches of rainfall possible in many areas by early Monday. In addition, with an eventual shifting of the main surface low pressure system to the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline, there is a threat for back-end accumulating snow in the late overnight/early Monday morning hours all the way into and especially to the N/W of the I-95 corridor. Significant snow is likely to fall during this storm across interior, higher elevation locations of the northeastern states from northeastern PA to northern New England.

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6:15 AM | ***Some wild weather late Sunday/Sunday night***

Paul Dorian

Some wild weather is coming to the NYC metro region late Sunday/Sunday night with heavy rain, powerful winds, squall line with thunderstorms, tumbling temperatures, and even a changeover to snow all on the table; primarily, in those areas well to the north and west of the metro area.

It turns milder today and the mild conditions will continue through much of the day on Sunday. A strong cold front will slowly slide eastward on Sunday and low pressure will intensify along the frontal boundary zone. Ahead of the cold front, rain will break out on Sunday and become heavy at times by Sunday night. Winds will become a big factor as well with potentially damaging wind gusts; especially, along coastal sections during this late weekend event. After the passage of the cold front, temperatures will tumble later Sunday night and the rain can transition to snow for a brief time in areas well to the N/W of NYC. The weather settles down on Monday, but it’ll remain moderately cold through much of the first half of next week.

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6:30 AM | ***Snow showers likely today...heavy rain/strong winds late Sunday into Sunday night and the precipitation could end as snow or ice***

Paul Dorian

There were snowflakes in the air in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and another system is likely to produce snow showers around here today and perhaps even a period of steadier snow. Small accumulations are certainly on the table as temperatures should hold in the 30’s during any snowfall during the day. It turns noticeably milder on Friday and the mild conditions will continue through much of the day on Sunday.

The weekend will end with some wild weather conditions as a strong cold front slides slowly from west-to-east and towards the eastern seaboard. Strong low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone and the result here will likely be heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms. In addition to the rain, winds will become a big factor with potentially damaging gusts from later Sunday into Sunday night. After the passage of the cold front, temperatures are likely to tumble on Sunday night and the rain can transition to snow/ice for a brief time in areas to the north and west of the metro area.

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12:15 PM | **Heavy rain event with strong and potentially damaging winds on the table for Mid-Atlantic/NE US late Sunday…back-end changeover to snow/ice across interior sections an increasing threat**

Paul Dorian

Signs continue to point to a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the late Sunday/Sunday night time period with strong and potentially damaging winds. In addition, with an eventual shifting of the main surface low pressure system to the east coast, there is a threat for back-end snow and/or ice across interior, higher elevation locations. In fact, this changeover threat across interior sections may actually be increasing as we get closer to event time with the expected storm track now somewhat slightly farther to the south and east. This trend allows for a quicker intrusion of colder air on the tail end of the storm. As it stands now, several inches of snow are possible across upstate New York and interior sections of New England and perhaps some frozen precipitation can make it not too far to the northwest of the I-95 corridor. Elsewhere, this weekend storm system may threaten the Deep South with severe weather including possible tornadic activity in the region from Arkansas/Louisiana to Alabama.

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