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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

6:30 AM | *A cold frontal passage ushers in a cooler air mass to the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and has ushered in a cooler air mass to the Mid-Atlantic that will generally feature high temperatures in the 80’s during the next few days. High pressure builds into the area over the next 24 hours and it looks like it’ll stay in control through the upcoming weekend although a shower or thunderstorm can pop up from time-to-time. An upper-level trough and surface front enter the picture early next week raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | ****Strong-to-severe thunderstorms possible later today/tonight as we transition to a cooler pattern that begins on Thursday****

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain hot for one more day in the Mid-Atlantic region, but this current heat wave will come to an end in the overnight hours with the passage of a cold frontal system. The approaching front will produce showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours and some of the storms can become severe with heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and hail on the table. The passage of the cold front will usher in a cooler air mass for tomorrow and Friday with high temperatures confined to the 80’s.

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12:15 PM (Tues) | ****Heat wave peaks today with highs near 100 degrees...severe thunderstorm threat later today, tonight, and tomorrow...power outages on the table...cooler pattern on the way****

Paul Dorian

The current heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region likely reaches a peak today with some spots along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor reaching the 100 degree mark for afternoon highs. Temperatures will remain quite hot on Wednesday, but likely a few degrees lower than today due to more abundant cloud cover ahead of an incoming cold frontal system. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely from later today through tomorrow night. Any thunderstorm during this next 36 hours or so can reach severe levels producing torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and hail and, unfortunately, power outages are on the table. The passage of the cold front late Wednesday night will usher in a cooler air mass for Thursday and Friday and the overall weather pattern may not include any more in the way of extreme heat for much of the eastern half of the nation through the remainder of the month of July.

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7:00 AM | ***Current heat wave peaks this afternoon with high temperatures flirting with the 100 degree mark...strong-to-severe storm possible late today/tonight and even more likely on Wednesday***

Paul Dorian

This latest hot spell in the Mid-Atlantic region began in earnest on Sunday and will continue through tomorrow and it likely reaches a peak this afternoon with some spots in the NYC metro area flirting with the 100 degree mark for afternoon highs. There is the chance of showers and thunderstorms late today, tonight, and especially during the PM hours on Wednesday when a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Any storm that develops during the next 36 hours can be strong-to-severe and produce heavy rainfall in a short period of time. The passage of the cold front on Wednesday night will usher in a cooler air mass for Thursday and Friday and high temperatures should be confined to the 80’s.

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6:30 AM | **The high heat is on through mid-week with afternoon highs well up in the 90's each day...maybe even 100 degrees in a few spots on Tuesday...cooler air pushes in on Thursday**

Paul Dorian

Hot weather has returned to the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll last through mid-week with afternoon highs each of the next few days way up in the 90’s. In fact, 100 degree highs are on the table in a few spots on Tuesday afternoon. The 3-day heat wave will not necessarily be rain-free as there is the chance of showers and thunderstorms on an daily basis and any thunderstorm can produce some heavy rainfall. A cold front pushes across the region late Wednesday and its passage will usher in a cooler air mass for Thursday and Friday.

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6:15 AM | ***Tropical moisture leads to occasional rain next 24 hours and possible strong thunderstorms...heat returns in full force for Sunday through Wednesday***

Paul Dorian

The frontal system that edged off the east coast early yesterday has stalled-out and it will act as a conduit for tropical moisture to ride up along during the next 24 hours or so. As a result, there will be occasional rain today, tonight and on Saturday and strong thunderstorms are possible along the way. Many area lawns welcomed beneficial rainfall on Wednesday night from strong thunderstorm activity and there can be an additional couple of inches of rain during the next 24 hours. In fact, as much as 3 or 4 inches of rain is on the table for some spots given this overall setup and flash flooding may become a concern. The threat of rain will diminish on Sunday and temperatures will climb noticeably with highs likely in the low-to-middle 90’s. It stays hot in the Monday-to-Wednesday time period with afternoon temperatures well up in the 90’s on each of those days. Looking ahead, the upcoming heat wave will likely come to an end by Thursday with the mid-week passage of a cool front.

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10:30 AM (Thursday) | ***Storms cleanse the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity...at least for a few days...heat returns in full force for Sunday through Wednesday time period***

Paul Dorian

Powerful storms rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late yesterday and last night and cleansed the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity…at least for a few days. One of the ingredients involved with yesterday’s unstable atmosphere was a cold frontal system that has edged off the east coast On Thursday morning; however, we are not done yet with this system. That cold front will stall out later today right along the east coast and copious amounts of tropical moisture will ride up along its boundary zone from tomorrow into Saturday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms around here and some of the rain will be heavy. The high heat of recent days has backed off for the next few days, but it will return in full force in the Mid-Atlantic region for the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday time period and 100 degree highs are on the table.

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7:00 AM | **High heat and humidity back off for the next couple of days...return in full force early next week...more showers/storms likely on Friday/Friday night...some of which can be heavy**

Paul Dorian

Powerful storms hit the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US late yesterday and last night and this has cleansed the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity of recent days. A cold front was the main culprit of the instability and this system has pushed to a position just off the east coast; however, we’re not done with it yet. The cold front stalls out today along the coastline and tropical moisture will ride northward along the boundary zone on Friday increasing our chances once again for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain on Friday and Friday night can be heavy at times. The threat of showers and storms will continue on Saturday, but then decrease for the Sunday, Monday and Tuesday time period. The high heat of recent days will return in full force by early next week with afternoon high temperatures on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday likely to be well up in the 90’s.

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1:15 PM | ***Severe weather threat across much of the interior Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic...new tropical wave off SE US coast to add some "fuel to the fire" later in the week***

Paul Dorian

A rather widespread severe weather event is likely across much of the interior Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region from this afternoon through tonight and tornadoes are certainly on the table. The main area of concern for tornadic activity extends from south-central Pennsylvania to upstate New York and Vermont...areas not usually thought of when it comes to tornado threats. The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable this afternoon given the combination of ingredients that includes high heat and humidity, low-level wind shear, and an incoming cold frontal system. The chance of showers and thunderstorms may decrease some on Thursday, but then it should rise again on Thursday night and Friday when moisture from a newly developing tropical wave enters the picture. This system will add some “fuel to the fire” by the end of the work week adding to chance for some heavy downpours on Friday along the eastern seaboard. The high heat of recent days will back off some on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but then will return in full force once again for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

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7:00 AM | **Very humid and still hot in the Mid-Atlantic region...chance of PM showers and storms each of the next few days...any shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall**

Paul Dorian

Humidity levels remain very high this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region with dew points - a direct measure of overall humidity - well up in the 70’s along much of the I-95 corridor. The high heat remains as well with temperatures likely to soar into the 90’s for afternoon highs making for very uncomfortable conditions indeed. The heat will back off some on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but is to return in full force by early next week with temperatures likely to soar well up into the 90’s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

In terms of rainfall, there will be an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms during each of the next few day and any rainfall can be very heavy at times. The combination of tropical moisture and a stalled-out frontal system will keep the atmosphere quite unstable through the second half of the week and when some daytime heating is added into the mix, the result is likely to be the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

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