Despite the fact that the center of Tropical Storm Debby will likely not move to the Mid-Atlantic region until the end of the week, its influence around here will actually begin late today and tonight. The combination of an increasingly tropical air mass and an incoming cold frontal system will result in late day and nighttime showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and flash flooding may become a concern during the overnight hours. It turns much cooler for the second half of the week following the passage of the cold frontal system which will actually stall out just to the south of here.
Tropical Storm Debby is now near the Georgia/South Carolina coastal border region and it will meander to a position just off the South Carolina coast by late today and tonight. Some re-intensification is possible on Wednesday while TS Debby is out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic and then a second landfall is likely on Thursday somewhere along the South Carolina coast. After that, the tropical storm is probably going to be kicked out to the north and move into the Mid-Atlantic region which likely results in additional heavy rainfall around here from later Thursday into early Saturday.
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Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.
Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.
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High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days and all eyes will be on what is now a category 1 hurricane named “Debby” which is about to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the chance of heavy rain around here as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night and the threat of tropical rains will continue here for much of the second half of the week due to the slow-movement of this system. The week starts off with very warm and humid conditions today and Tuesday, but then it’ll turn much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with the interaction of what remains of Hurricane Debby.
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An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.
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An upper-level ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days and this will lead to hotter conditions with afternoon highs well up in the 90’s in most spots along the I-95 corridor. A few shortwaves will keep it unsettled around here right through the upcoming weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms; primarily, focused on the afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms during the next few days can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high amounts of available moisture and the likely slow-moving nature of the storm cells. Elsewhere, the tropical scene is alive and well in the Atlantic Basin as we flip the calendar to August and there could be an intensifying tropical system to deal with over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
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Low pressure will pass by to our north today and there can be showers at just about anytime and possible PM thunderstorms. An upper-level ridge of high pressure takes control of the weather for the remainder of the week and this should result in hotter conditions on Thursday and Friday. After temperatures peak later today near 90 degrees, they’ll likely climb into the low-to-mid 90’s for highs on both Thursday and Friday. The overall pattern also remains unsettled on Thursday and Friday with a good chance of PM showers and thunderstorms warm, humid and unsettled weather is likely this weekend.
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A couple of shortwaves will rotate through the region later today and tonight raising the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms…some of the storms can be strong and produce heavy rainfall amounts. There should be plenty of cloud cover around as well today which should limit high temperatures this afternoon to the middle or upper 80’s in the NYC metro region. It remains somewhat unsettled on Wednesday with another shower and thunderstorm possible and then upper-level high pressure ridging to our southwest takes control for the latter part of the week. As such, it’ll turn hotter for Thursday and Friday with afternoon high temperatures likely well up in the 90’s and there can be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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The weather was rather tranquil this weekend with dry and warm conditions, but it turns unsettled again today and it’ll remain unsettled for much of the week. Low pressure spinning over New England this morning will generate showers in the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be some PM thunderstorm activity as well. Another low pressure system will drift by to our north from Tuesday into Wednesday raising the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms in the local area.
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A cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and high pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes assuring dry conditions for the weekend. In addition, the high humidity of recent days will become noticeably lower today and temperatures for the next few days should be at comfortably warm levels.
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After one more warm, humid, and unsettled day in the Mid-Atlantic region, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will take control of our weather on Friday and provide us with dry and comfortably warm conditions through the weekend. As far as today is concerned, there will again be plenty of clouds around and the threat of additional showers…maybe a thunderstorm. Temperatures should peak this afternoon in the low-to-mid 80’s and overall humidity levels should drop by tomorrow as high pressure to our northwest edges into the region.
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