Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.
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A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the upper 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures well up into the 70’s along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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It turns milder today with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches the area from our southwest and there can be a shower by the end of the afternoon. Showers are likely tonight as the warm front pushes through the region and temperatures will surge on Saturday to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs. There should be some sunshine to go along with the warmth on Saturday and a stiff breeze as well from a west-to-southwest direction. Temperatures on Sunday are likely to be much cooler across NYC and much of New Jersey as well with the passage of a back door cool frontal system from northeast-to-southwest. Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity and perhaps a thunderstorm. This frontal passage will end the warm spell leading to much colder conditions by Tuesday and its stays on the chilly side next Wednesday as well.
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Any long-time weather forecaster in the northeastern part of the nation knows quite well to be fearful of the “back door” cool front this time of year as it can make a forecast of summer-like temperatures look rather foolish with winter-like reality instead. Indeed, the “back door” cool front is rather common in the northeastern part of the US during the months of March and April, and it can mean the difference of 30-40 degrees over a short distance, and the difference between summer and winter weather conditions over a short period of time.
In fact, there can be winter-like temperatures this Saturday in Boston, Massachusetts while a summer-like feel is as close by as Harford, Connecticut, and summer-like temperatures in New York City and New Jersey on Saturday can drop significantly by Sunday after the passage of a “back door” cool front from northeast-to-southwest. The key factor in the potential dramatic impact of the passage of a “back door” cool front this time of year is that the western Atlantic Ocean is still quite cold so a switch of low-level flow of air from a warmer continental direction to an ocean flow can result in substantial temperature swings.
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It becomes breezy today and stays on the cool side despite plenty of sunshine with afternoon high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50’s…dry weather for the Yankees home opener (3pm). It turns slightly milder on Friday with increasing clouds and then a warm front pushes through on Friday night likely accompanied by some shower activity. Following the passage of the warm front, temperatures should surge on Saturday to well up in the 70’s and there should be some sunshine and a stiff breeze. This surge in temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region will be muted somewhat on Sunday as clouds will become dominate and help to knock temperatures down some from Saturday’s warmth and there will be an increasing chance of showers later in the weekend. Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity. This frontal passage will end the warm spell in a hurry leading to much colder-than-normal conditions by Tuesday, April 1st, and it stays on the cool side for next Wednesday as well.
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The “boys of summer” are back in town...big-league baseball gets underway on Thursday with home openers in New York City (Yankees vs. Brewers) and Washington, D.C. (Nationals vs Phillies) where there should be loads of sunshine and dry, cool conditions. High pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday resulting in the dry, cool conditions with highs likely in the lower 50’s across New York City and the upper 50’s in the D.C. metro. After a warm frontal passage on Friday night, a major-league warmup is coming on Saturday with 80 degrees on the table in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A cold frontal system will push through the region today and there can be a rain shower or two in the area. It’ll be on the breezy and cool side both today and tomorrow with temperatures below-normal for this time of year. The weather for the Yankees home opener on Thursday should be dry and cool with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 50’s. A warm front pushes through the area on Friday night with some shower activity and then temperatures could soar this weekend potentially well up into the 70’s on Saturday and 60’s likely for Sunday and Monday.
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High pressure takes control of the weather today on the back side of a departing cold frontal system and it should result in some sunshine and a breezy, milder afternoon. A weak disturbance slides to our south early tomorrow and then high pressure returns for later tomorrow and Thursday. It’ll be on the cool side on both Wednesday and Thursday with highs on both afternoons in the lower 50’s. One final note…there should be plenty of sunshine on Thursday for the Yankees home opener and it’ll be a tad cooler-than-normal with afternoon highs in the lower 50’s.
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The week starts off unsettled as a cold frontal system slowly works its way through the area producing occasional showers for much of the day. High pressure will take control on Tuesday, but only for a brief time as another system can produce some shower activity around here on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The weather returns to generally dry and cool conditions for later Wednesday and Thursday as another high pressure system builds into the region…chilly weather for the Yankees home opener.
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Winds will be quite strong today from a northwesterly direction and can gust to 40 mph or so on the back side of a cold frontal system. High pressure takes control providing us with some sunshine to go along with the windy and chilly conditions after some lingering early day clouds. A weak cold front can produce a shower or two on Saturday and it’ll turn somewhat cooler and breezy on Sunday ahead of the next cold front which can produce showers around here on Sunday night and Monday.
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