Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The exact timing of the rapid intensification and the ultimate track of the storm are still somewhat unclear at this time and while a significant impact appears quite likely for eastern New England, there is a chance that at least part of the Mid-Atlantic region escapes with only a moderate or minor impact.
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An Arctic air mass has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region and the next couple of days will feature well below-normal temperatures for the latter part of January. The core of the coldest air will be in place late tonight and late night temperatures lows will likely drop to the lower teens in much of the region. Low pressure will form near the southeastern US coastline on Friday and enter a rapid intensification phase as it moves to the northeast at week’s end. Snow is likely to break out here later Friday and continue into Saturday from what is looking increasingly likely to be an unfolding intense ocean storm with wide-ranging impacts. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding situation.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this week across the eastern US and there is continued potential for an intense ocean storm at week’s end. Many ingredients are likely to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure somewhere off the US east coast. These ingredients include the following: strong jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of very cold air to the north and west, relatively warm waters in the western Atlantic, and deepening low pressure aloft that will at some point take on a “negative” tilt in its axis orientation. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding intense ocean storm scenario.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is the potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the late Friday/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for rapid intensification of surface low pressure, but whether it pushes far enough offshore for just a minimal impact around here or comes closer to the coast with a bigger impact remains unclear at this point…stay tuned.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is growing potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the Friday night/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure including the following: jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of cold air to the north and west, and deepening low pressure aloft that takes on a “negative” tilt. At this time, it is just too early to tell if this ocean storm will track well off the coast, close in or perhaps even ends up taking a slightly inland track which is a scenario that is still on the table though not too likely. It certainly looks like it’ll be an interesting next few days as we track this growing threat.
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The passage of a cold front on Sunday night has ushered in a reinforcing cold air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin a new week. High pressure will control the weather around here today, but by Tuesday we’ll come under the influence of weak low pressure that can generate a bit of snow and/or rain in the region. Arctic high pressure takes over at mid-week and Wednesday could very well turn out to be the coldest day of the season so far. At the end of the week, a strong storm is likely to form just off the eastern seaboard. This storm can have a significant impact on the region in the Friday night/Saturday time frame depending on its ultimate track…stay tuned…it’ll be an interesting week.
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The passage of an Arctic front early yesterday paved the way for bitter cold air to push into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures today will stay well below-normal for late January. Low pressure will move offshore later tonight to the east of the Carolinas and its precipitation shield should also remain to our south and east. The overall weather pattern, however, remains quite cold and active and there may be another low pressure system to deal with by the middle of next week and perhaps even another threat by the subsequent weekend.
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Rain will change to snow later this morning from northwest to the southeast with the arrival of an Arctic air mass and accumulations are likely to fall into the coating to an inch or two inch range – watch out for slick spots on the roads later today as temperatures slowly fall. In fact, the high temperatures for the day have likely already been reached during the overnight hours and should drop well down in the 20’s by later this afternoon as Arctic air continues to filter into the region. Bitter cold conditions for tonight with late night lows likely in the 10-14 degree range in many spots and highs tomorrow will certainly do no better than the low-to-mid 20’s as the Arctic air mass becomes quite well established. Low pressure will then attempt to push northward just off the eastern seaboard by the early part of the upcoming weekend. Currently, that system appears to be more likely to generate accumulating snow to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a possible focus zone in the region from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal southern New Jersey…still something to monitor though.
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An Arctic frontal system will work its way through the Mid-Atlantic region early tomorrow and some “post-frontal” snow can cause slick spots on the roads from about the time of the AM rush hour to around mid-day. Rain will break out later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of the Arctic front, but then as colder air filters into the region, precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow right around morning commute time on Thursday. Accumulations are likely to end up in the 1-3 inch range by mid-day tomorrow after the changeover takes place. Bitter cold conditions will follow the system for tomorrow night and Friday with overnight lows in the 10-15 degree range and highs doing no better than the 20’s to end the work week.
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Accumulating snow is likely early tomorrow upon the arrival of the next Arctic air mass as low pressure will form along an incoming frontal boundary zone. Rain will break out later tonight ahead of the Arctic front, but then mix with or change to snow towards daybreak as colder air filters into the region. The threat of snow will be greatest for about a 5 or 6 hour period from its likely beginning in the 5-7 AM time period. I expect accumulations of 1-3 inches in the Philly metro region with isolated higher amounts possible, and while not a significant amount, the timing of the snow will not be great as it will coincide with at least part of the AM rush hour on Thursday. Bitter cold air will flow in behind the system on Thursday night and Friday and then another low pressure system will have to be watched for the early part of the weekend. Currently, that system is more likely to generate accumulating snow to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a possible focus on the zone from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal southern New Jersey…still a close call though.
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