A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..
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The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).
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A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
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The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.
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The work week will end with high pressure in control producing plenty of sunshine around here and comfortably warm conditions. However, the weekend and first half of next week will be somewhat unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time as we’ll have to deal with a couple of different cold frontal systems. Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees later today and then will trend downward from this weekend into early next week with highs on Monday and Tuesday likely near the 70-degree mark.
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The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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Low pressure will meander off the coast during the next couple of days and most of the moisture associated with it will as well; however, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. High pressure will take control of the weather later this weekend and it’ll stick around through the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain in the comfortable zone for the next few days with highs not far from 80 degrees and then the 70’s will dominate the scene for early next week with respect to the afternoon temperatures.
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Showers have advanced northward into the region associated with a weakening low pressure system to our south and the shower threat will continue into the end of the week as a secondary low forms over the western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally remain on the cool side of normal given the extensive cloud cover that is expected during the new few days and the persistent onshore flow. High pressure will try to take control of the weather this weekend with the continuation of comfortable temperatures and partial sunshine on both days.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast., but high pressure to the northeast is limiting its northward push. The threat of showers will increase here by late tonight and continue through mid-week; however, total rainfall amounts may be quite limited in this area due to the overall blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere.
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