The last few days have been relatively quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region with dry and warm conditions dominating the scene. Heat and humidity will build up later in the week and an approaching frontal system could lead to showers and thunderstorms by Friday night. That front will stall-out nearby this weekend and likely result in a shower and thunderstorm threat on both weekend days.
The upper-level pattern next week will feature strong high pressure ridging over the south-central states and a northwest flow of air from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US. This kind of pattern sometimes produces complexes of thunderstorms that travel in the northwest flow from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US...something to monitor during the next several days. Looking ahead, there are signs that a strong upper-level trough may become positioned over southeastern Canada at the end of next week potentially bringing a pleasant start to the month of August.
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High pressure that had been positioned to our northwest during the past couple of days will shift offshore today and then even farther out to sea on Thursday. This re-positioning of the high pressure system will open the door for a buildup of heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region during Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely peaking on Friday afternoon in the middle 90’s. In terms of rainfall, a cold front approaches the area late in the day on Friday and then hangs nearby through the upcoming weekend. As a result, unsettled weather conditions will make a return with the chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday and again on both weekend days.
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The week started off with improving weather conditions on Monday featuring comfortably warm conditions and it should turn out even better today following the passage of a secondary cold frontal system. Humidity will be low today and the comfortable temperature pattern will continue and there should be plenty of sunshine though an isolated afternoon shower cannot be completely ruled out; especially, over parts of New Jersey and Delaware. As high pressure shifts from our northwest today to our east later this week, the heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the area. In fact, temperatures by Friday are likely to reach the low-to-mid 90’s ahead of the next frontal system which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms around here this weekend.
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A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night paving the way for a great start to the new work week, and a secondary cold front will follow later today. As a result, it will be comfortably warm with low humidity values through the first half of the week, and there will be plenty of sunshine on each day as well. High pressure pushes off the coast for the late week time period and heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the region. The next frontal system approaches by the end of the week and it’ll increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday.
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A cold front will clear the coast this morning and its passage will usher in more comfortable air to end the work week with lower humidity levels. The weather becomes unsettled again for the weekend with showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time and high temperatures in the 80’s. A strong cold front comes through on Sunday night paving the way for nice weather on Monday and Tuesday with comfortably warm conditions and low humidity.
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A stalled-out frontal system has turned around and pushed northward through the region as a warm front paving the way for a hot and humid afternoon and high temperatures in the lower 90’s. A cold front approaches the area late today and crosses by early Friday and its passage will usher in much more comfortable conditions with lower humidity for tomorrow, tomorrow night, and much of the day on Saturday. The humidity does build back up again on Saturday night and Sunday and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also make a return. Another cold front is likely to cross the region by Sunday night paving the way for a dry and comfortably warm start to next week.
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The combination of a tropical air mass, a stalled-out frontal boundary zone, and an upper-level disturbance will “re-ignite” the atmosphere this afternoon and the result is very likely to be yet another round of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms for much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With the likelihood of flooding downpours and the well saturated grounds, flash flood watches have been issued throughout the Mid-Atlantic region by the National Weather Service. This stalled-out front system will turn around by tomorrow and push to the north as a warm front and the heat and humidity should reach a peak in the afternoon with highs up in the 90’s in many places. A cold front then pushes through the northern Mid-Atlantic region later Thursday night into early Friday and it then stalls out across the southern Mid-Atlantic later in the day. As a result, the corridor from Philly to New York City will see a big break in the humidity on Friday, Friday night, and much of Saturday, but the stalled-out front will keep it unsettled and moderately humid in and around the DC metro area. The humidity does build back up again throughout the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the weekend and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also make a return.
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It’ll remain quite warm and humid today and unsettled with a good chance of late day and evening showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy. The frontal system that stalled out in the area on Tuesday will begin a push to the north later today as a warm front adding to the instability in the atmosphere. Following the passage of the warm front, tomorrow will likely turn out to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the lower 90’s and there will be a continuing chance for showers and thunderstorms. The next cold front arrives on Friday - potentially with another round of showers and thunderstorms. It appears this front will clear the coast by Friday night paving the way for lower humidity to start the upcoming weekend.
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It’ll remain warm and very humid today and somewhat unsettled with isolated showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours (shouldn’t be as widespread as yesterday). The strong cold front that pushed into the region late yesterday is stalling out and it’ll turn back to the north on Wednesday likely leading to an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms at mid-week. Following the passage of the warm front, Thursday could turn out to be the hottest day of the week with highs at or slightly above the 90 degree mark and a continuing chance for showers and thunderstorms. The next cold front arrives later Friday - potentially with another round of showers and thunderstorms - and, if we’re lucky, it may just clear the coast and result in a decent start to the weekend with lower humidity.
One final note, as a follow-up to yesterday’s “Home Run Derby” posting, the longest HR hit last night in a hot and humid Atlanta was 513 feet by Oneil Cruz of the Pirates (4th longest in Derby history) and the winner was Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners. Next years All-Star game and HR Derby will be played in beautiful Citizens Park of South Philadelphia as part of the 250th birthday celebration for the country.
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The combination of a tropical air mass, a slow-moving surface cold front, and an upper-level disturbance raises the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. And, as has been the case quite often in recent days, some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and flooding downpours are on the table with a few inches possible in some spots in a short period of time. While flash-flooding is the greatest concern in this scenario, isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible later today associated with “downburst-type” thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, while the threat of showers and thunderstorms may diminish on Tuesday, it is likely to rise again at mid-week as a stalled-out frontal system makes a turnaround and heads back to the north as a warm front.
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