Numerous signs point to an active tropical season this year in the Atlantic Basin with more tropical storms, hurricanes, and “major” hurricanes compared to the long-term averages. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching (minimal) hurricane status, and 3.2 becoming “major” (1991-2020 baseline period).
Based on my overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect around 16 named storms this season with around 9 reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps as many as 4 to achieve “major” classification level. Another metric to use in the assessment of overall tropical activity is known as the accumulated cyclone energy or ACE which utilizes both strength and longevity of tropical storms in its calculation and I expect this to be 150-160% of normal in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season.
The two most important parameters that have been factored into the “2024 Tropical Outlook” include: (1) the development of La Nina in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and (2) warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in much of the breeding grounds region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea…both of which are favorable for the development and intensification of tropical activity. I believe the most vulnerable areas to be directly impacted this upcoming tropical season include those in and around the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Southeast US.
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An upper-level low is spinning its way to a position over the Great Lakes and it will become the main player on our weather during the next couple of days. There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms both tonight and on Thursday…some of this rain can be heavy at times. The weather remains somewhat unsettled later in the week with a threat of showers from time-to-time to go along with moderately warm conditions.
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An upper-level low will slide towards the Great Lakes today and the impact here will be an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms from later in the day through the night. It stays unsettled on Thursday with a residual chance of showers and storms, but more tranquil weather is likely for Friday and Saturday with moderate warmth.
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An upper-level low is spinning its way to a position over the Great Lakes and it will become the main player on our weather during the next few days. There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms both tonight and on Thursday…some of this rain can be heavy at times. The weather remains somewhat unsettled later in the week with a threat of showers from time-to-time to go along with moderately warm conditions.
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The big weather story this week continues to be the summer-like temperatures with lower 90’s on the table for this afternoon, 90 degrees on Thursday, and low-to-mid 90’s on Friday afternoon. More seasonal temperatures are likely to return here this weekend and there will likely be a returning threat of showers and thunderstorms.
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An upper-level low is spinning its way to a position over the Great Lakes and it will become the main player on our weather during the next few days. There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms both tonight and on Thursday…some of this rain can be heavy at times. The weather remains somewhat unsettled later in the week with a threat of showers from time-to-time to go along with moderately warm conditions.
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High pressure will be in control of the weather around here today providing us with plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. An upper-level low will spin its way to a position over the Great Lakes by mid-week and it will become the main player for our upcoming weather. There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night and Thursday…some of this mid-week rain can be heavy at times. The weather remains somewhat unsettled late in the week with a threat of showers from time-to-time to go along with moderately warm conditions.
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Quite warm and somewhat unsettled across the Tennessee Valley for remainder of the week of June with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will peak today in the middle 80’s and similar warmth is likely to occur on a daily basis through the upcoming week.
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The big weather story this week continues to be the summer-like temperatures with 90+ degree highs on the table for the mid and late week. More seasonal temperatures are likely to return here this weekend and there will likely be a returning threat of showers and thunderstorms.
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High pressure will be in control of the weather around here today providing us with plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. An upper-level low will spin its way to a position over the Great Lakes by mid-week and it will become the main player for our upcoming weather. There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night and Thursday…some of this mid-week rain can be heavy at times. The weather remains somewhat unsettled late in the week with a threat of showers from time-to-time to go along with moderately warm conditions.
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