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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:30 AM | ***An increasingly tropical air mass with late day/nighttime showers and storms...some of the rain will be heavy...much cooler second half of week..."Debby" impact Thursday into Saturday***

Paul Dorian

Despite the fact that the center of Tropical Storm Debby will likely not move to the Mid-Atlantic region until the end of the week, its influence around here will actually begin late today and tonight. The combination of an increasingly tropical air mass and an incoming cold frontal system will result in late day and nighttime showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and flash flooding may become a concern during the overnight hours. It turns much cooler for the second half of the week following the passage of the cold frontal system which will actually stall out just to the south of here.

Tropical Storm Debby is now near the Georgia/South Carolina coastal border region and it will meander to a position just off the South Carolina coast by late today and tonight. Some re-intensification is possible on Wednesday while TS Debby is out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic and then a second landfall is likely on Thursday somewhere along the South Carolina coast. After that, the tropical storm is probably going to be kicked out to the north and move into the Mid-Atlantic region which likely results in additional heavy rainfall around here from later Thursday into early Saturday.

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2:45 PM | **"Debby" to produce tremendous rainfall amounts in the SE US...2nd landfall likely after some re-intensification...enhanced heavy rain threat in Mid-Atl. begins as early as late tomorrow**

Paul Dorian

Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.

Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.

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6:30 AM | *Hot weather continues through mid-week...much cooler for Thursday and Friday*

Paul Dorian

After a hot weekend, it’ll remain hot for the next few days with high temperatures each day likely in the 90’s. Abundant moisture has flowed into the region in the overnight hours and this should allow for the development of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cool front will cross through the area at mid-week and temperatures will likely do no better than 70’s for afternoon highs on Thursday and Friday.

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6:30 AM | **Tropical moisture to enhance chance of heavy rain here as early as late tomorrow...threat of tropical rains continues through second half of week due to slow-movement of tropical system**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days and all eyes will be on what is now a category 1 hurricane named “Debby” which is about to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the chance of heavy rain around here as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night and the threat of tropical rains will continue here for much of the second half of the week due to the slow-movement of this system. The week starts off with very warm and humid conditions today and Tuesday, but then it’ll turn much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with the interaction of what remains of Hurricane Debby.

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6:30 AM | *Lower 90's to start the week with an isolated PM shower or thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

The weather to start the week will be very warm, humid and there can be isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Debby will pass by to our east over the next few days and we’ll be under control of high pressure centered to our northeast. this area will be dominated by high pressure ridging centered to our north. Temperatures can peak later today in the lower 90’s and then similar high temperatures are likely into Thursday, but it should get a tad cooler by week’s end.

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6:30 AM | **Tropical moisture to enhance chance of heavy rain here as early as late tomorrow...threat of tropical rains continues through second half of week due to slow-movement of tropical system**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days and all eyes will be on what is now a category 1 hurricane named “Debby” which is about to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the chance of heavy rain around here as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night and the threat of tropical rains will continue here for much of the second half of the week due to the slow-movement of this system. The week starts off with very warm and humid conditions today and Tuesday, but then it’ll turn much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with the interaction of what remains of Hurricane Debby.

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6:30 AM | **Tropical moisture to enhance chance of heavy rain here as early as late tomorrow...threat of tropical rains continues through second half of week due to slow-movement of tropical system**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will build across the region over the next couple of days and all eyes will be on what is now a category 1 hurricane named “Debby” which is about to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast. Tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the chance of heavy rain around here as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night and the threat of tropical rains will continue here for much of the second half of the week due to the slow-movement of this system. The week starts off with very warm and humid conditions today and Tuesday, but then it’ll turn much cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with the interaction of what remains of Hurricane Debby.

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7:00 AM | **Hot pattern to continue...an increased chance later today/early tonight for scattered showers and storms...even better chance for some rain early next week**

Paul Dorian

The main weather story continues to be the high heat across the region and wildfire smoke and haze are continuing factors as well. Temperatures will peak later today in the mid-to-upper 90’s and similar highs are likely right through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Rain chances today will increase some during the late afternoon and early evening hours and reduce on Saturday only to rise again on Sunday and Monday when locally heavy rain will be back on the table.

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6:15 AM | ***Good chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe with very heavy rainfall...an unsettled weekend as well***

Paul Dorian

An intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure will slide towards the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight and it’ll actually play a role in the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. Specifically, this system will enhance upward motion in the area raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms - possibly strong-to-severe - and that threat of rain will continue on each weekend day. In addition, a southwesterly flow of air out ahead of this incoming trough will push very moist air into the area suggesting any shower or thunderstorm that does form during the next few days can produce some very heavy rainfall amounts in an impacted location.

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