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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | *Relatively quiet and mild around here for the next few days*

Paul Dorian

While both the northwest and northeast sections of the country get impacted by powerful storm systems, the Colorado Rockies and Plains will enjoy relatively quiet and mild weather for the next few days. The pattern does turn colder and more unsettled by late in the weekend and early part of the next week, but for the next few days high temperatures in the 60’s along with plenty of sunshine.  

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7:00 AM | ***Significant storm hangs around NE US...more rain here today...can mix with or change to snow later tonight and Friday***

Paul Dorian

With a deepening upper-level trough overhead and a developing surface low pressure system, “wraparound” rain showers will continue today in an unstable environment and they’ll continue off and on right through tomorrow evening. The surface low pressure system will, in fact, be “forced” to rotate around for a period of time as it becomes increasingly influenced by the strong blocking high pressure system stationed to the north of here over northeastern Canada.

As colder air wraps into the system, the rain can mix with snow later tonight and perhaps can change to all snow for awhile on Friday. In fact, small accumulations are even possible on Friday across some of the northern and western suburbs of the NYC metro region. There will significant snowfall across some of the higher elevation locations of upstate NY from the Catskills to the Adirondacks where some early season skiing looks quite possible.

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7:00 AM | ***"Wraparound" rain showers today...can mix with snow, ice pellets tonight and then change to all snow for awhile on Friday***

Paul Dorian

With a deepening upper-level trough overhead and a developing surface low pressure system, “wraparound” rain showers are likely today in an unstable environment and they’ll continue off and on right through tomorrow evening. The surface low pressure system will, in fact, be “forced” to rotate around for a period of time as it becomes increasingly influenced by the strong blocking high pressure system stationed to the north of here over northeastern Canada.

As colder air wraps into the system, the rain can mix with snow and/or ice pellets later tonight and likely changes to all snow for awhile on Friday with small accumulations possible. Significant snow of 6-12 inches is possible across some of the higher elevation locations of northeastern PA including, for example, the Pocono Mountains where early season skiing looks quite possible.

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7:00 AM | **Windy and colder today on the back side of a developing storm system over the northeastern states**

Paul Dorian

As a potent upper-level trough pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region later today, winds around here will stiffen out of the west-northwest and this will bring much cooler conditions to the region. After high temperatures on Wednesday close to 60 degrees, we’ll likely be confined to 50 degrees later today along with the strong winds gusting up to 30 mph or so.

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7:00 AM | ***"Wraparound" rain showers return later tonight...can mix with snow and/or ice pellets late tonight and perhaps changes to all snow for awhile on Friday***

Paul Dorian

With a deepening upper-level trough sliding overhead and an intensifying surface low pressure system off to our northeast, we’re not quite done with this storm system just yet. There can be “wraparound” rain showers returning to the area later tonight and precipitation is likely on Friday as the surface low is “forced” to rotate around for a period of time as it becomes increasingly influenced by the strong blocking high pressure system stationed to the north of here over northeastern Canada.

As colder air wraps into the system, the rain can mix with snow and/or ice pellets late tonight and can change to all snow for awhile on Friday with small accumulations possible on grassy surface across some N/W suburbs. Significant (heavy, wet) snow of 6-12 inches is possible across some of the higher elevation locations of western Maryland (Garrett County) and central/eastern West Virginia where some early season skiing looks quite possible.

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12:00 PM | ***Slow-moving storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region...first snow in many spots along I-95 corridor...significant snow in many higher elevation locations...additional cold shots***

Paul Dorian

If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.

A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.

Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from late today into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes possible***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with beneficial rainfall from late today into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue from tomorrow afternoon through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From late tomorrow through Friday enough cold air could feed into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow all the way down to the northern and western suburbs of DC. Significant snow is likely across western Maryland (Garrett County) during the next couple of days and also in the higher elevation locations of West Virginia.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from early tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes likely***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with steady beneficial rain from early tonight into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. It is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals from a single event that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.50” to 1.00” likely by early tomorrow. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue from tomorrow afternoon through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From late tomorrow through Friday enough cold air could feed into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow all the way down to the Philly metro region. Significant snow is likely up across northeastern PA with several inches on the table for the Pocono Mountains...an early season gift for skiers.

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7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from tonight into early Thursday...maybe a thunderstorm...windy, colder on Thursday and Friday with instability showers...first snowflakes likely***

Paul Dorian

A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with rainfall from early tonight into Thursday and it is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.75” to 1.25” possible by morning. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From tomorrow afternoon through Friday, instability rain showers are likely and enough cold air can wrap into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. Significant snow is likely across some interior, higher elevation locations across northwestern NJ and upstate NY to include the Catskills and Adirondacks...an early season delight for skiers.

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1:15 PM | ***Powerhouse storm to slam Pacific NW...significant storm coming to Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast US...multiple cold shots on the way central/eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.

Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.

Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.

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