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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:15 AM | **Another colder-than-normal day, but with far less wind...mixed precipitation possible late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

It’ll stay well below-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the winds will not be a factor as they were on Thursday. An overall active weather pattern is unfolding going forward and there will be a couple systems to deal with early next week. By late Sunday, weak low pressure will bring moisture into the Mid-Atlantic region and it can be cold enough at the onset (cold air damming scenario) for a mix of snow and/or ice across some of the N/W suburbs. Another system will follow quickly on Monday and Tuesday bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:15 AM | **Another colder-than-normal day, but with far less wind...mixed precipitation possible late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

It’ll stay well below-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the winds will not be a factor as they were on Thursday. An overall active weather pattern is unfolding going forward through the second half of December and there will be a couple systems to deal with early next week. By late Sunday, weak low pressure will bring moisture into the Mid-Atlantic region and it can be cold enough at the onset (cold air damming scenario) for a mix of snow and/or ice across some of the N/W suburbs. Another system will follow quickly on Monday and Tuesday bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region.

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***An upcoming active pattern with several signals (MJO, SSW, PNA) pointing to additional Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.

One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.

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6:30 AM | *Cold blast keeps us below-normal through tomorrow...moderation this weekend*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening ushered in a much colder air mass and temperatures will remain well below-normal through Friday. Winds will stay quite strong today from a west-to-northwest direction making it feel even colder than the actual ambient temperatures. High pressure will be in charge to be the weekend and temperatures will moderate some and then a couple of low pressure systems will affect the region from Sunday night through Tuesday.

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6:30 AM | *Cold blast keeps us below-normal through tomorrow...moderation this weekend*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening ushered in a much colder air mass and temperatures will remain well below-normal through Friday. Winds will stay quite strong today from a west-to-northwest direction making it feel even colder than the actual ambient temperatures. High pressure will be in charge to be the weekend and temperatures will moderate some and then a couple of low pressure systems will affect the region from Sunday night through Tuesday.

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6:30 AM | *Cold blast keeps us below-normal through tomorrow...moderation this weekend*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening ushered in a much colder air mass and temperatures will remain well below-normal through Friday. Winds will stay quite strong today from a west-to-northwest direction making it feel even colder than the actual ambient temperatures. High pressure will be in charge to be the weekend and temperatures will moderate some and then a couple of low pressure systems will affect the region from Sunday night through Tuesday.

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6:30 AM | ***Rainy, very windy, and unseasonably mild today...turning sharply colder later tonight following the passage of a strong cold front***

Paul Dorian

The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in the biggest rain event around here since early June. Rainfall amounts by later tonight can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture as well.  In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections where a low-level jet is going to become quite intense by later today. The passage of the strong cold front later this evening will result in another cold blast for the region with temperatures on Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.

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6:30 AM | ***Rainy, windy, unseasonably mild through mid-day...turning sharply colder later today and tonight following the passage of a strong cold front***

Paul Dorian

The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in additional heavy rainfall across the area and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. The passage of a cold front later today will reverse temperatures from the early day highs in the 60’s to the middle 40’s by day’s end. Much colder-than-normal air will ride in on strong NW winds during the overnight hours and temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be well below-normal for this time of year. One final note, as the initial burst of cold air pours into the late today/early tonight, there can be a brief period of snow or snow showers and small accumulations cannot be ruled out in some of the far N/W suburbs.

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