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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

2:00 PM | ***”Backend” snow to deal with in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region from the current winter storm...monitoring a late week/early weekend storm threat for the Deep South and eastern states***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure that has produced accumulating snow today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean during the next hour or so; however, it is not necessarily through with our area just yet. Snow is developing in the northwest sector of this eastward-moving storm system and this “backend” snow will impact the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva-to-southern NJ late today and early tonight and likely up across southern PA as well. In fact, there can be additional snow accumulations in some areas of up to a couple of inches before the precipitation shield finally fully departs the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm late tonight and Tuesday, stiff NW winds will develop and can gust past 40 mph or so making it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures.

Looking ahead, this cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system late this week and weekend. This time, the location of the storm development will be way down south likely over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by week’s end. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and this can even include significant accumulating snow and ice across places like Texas and Arkansas. After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the timing of its intensification along the coast will be critical in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A quick intensification along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or the system may “wait” until it pushes farther to the north and east to intensify which would likely limit any big impact to eastern New England.

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7:00 AM | **A cold week ahead for the Tennessee Valley**

Paul Dorian

The week ahead will be quite cold across the southeastern states and there can be some snow shower activity in the area today to go along with the below-normal temperatures. By late in the week, low pressure will likely try to form over the Gulf of Mexico and it can spread some rain and/or snow into the region later Friday or Saturday.

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6:15 AM | **Winter storm hits southern Mid-Atlantic region hard...far less impact here**

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm system will move eastward today and produce snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; however, there will be minimal impact in the NYC metro region with a coating to an inch possible. Dry, cold air is entrenched across the Northeast US anchored by strong high pressure to the northwest and this will inhibit the precipitation shield of this storm system from advancing this far to the northeast. Arctic cold will follow the departing low pressure system for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact on the region this weekend.

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6:00 AM | ****Biggest snow event in awhile for DC metro...heavy snow in the AM...possible lull in the afternoon..."backend" snow develops by early evening...sleet can mix in at times****

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm system will move eastward today and produce significant accumulating snow in the area that is likely to fall at its heaviest during the morning hours. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon and sleet can mix in at times; especially, to the south and west of the metro region. Snow or a mix of snow and sleet that changes back to all snow likely re-intensifies during the late afternoon or early evening hours on the backend of the storm system with additional accumulations possible. Total accumulations of 5-10 inches are on the table with isolated higher amounts possible of up to 12 inches or so…the biggest snow event in several years for the DC metro region. Arctic cold will follow for the next few days as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact in the region this weekend.

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6:00 AM | ***Some accumulating snow today...lull in precipitation this afternoon...backend snow likely this evening******

Paul Dorian

A winter storm system will move eastward today and produce accumulating snow in the area with the heaviest likely to fall during the morning hours. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation this afternoon and then the return of some snow or snow showers by late afternoon or early evening on the backend of the storm system. Total accumulations are likely to fall in the 2-4 inch range with the higher amounts generally to the south of the metro region and lowest amounts to the north. Arctic cold will follow for the next few days as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact in the region this weekend.

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Sunday mid-day | ****Winter storm to impact southern Mid-Atlantic region…snow arrives in DC near midnight…before daybreak in Philly…little impact in NYC…a look ahead to more cold and storm threats****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.

Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.

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****Major winter storm from central Plains to Mid-Atlantic with significant snow, disruptive ice…watch for “cold conveyor belt” snow on the backend...late week/weekend storm threat****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.

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