While global sea surface temperatures continue to run at above-normal levels, there has been a rather dramatic cooling trend across tropical regions all around the world. During the past year or so, water temperatures in the Indian Ocean have dropped to nearly neutral levels around India and well above-normal levels immediately east of Africa have moderated to only slightly above-normal conditions. In the central part of the tropical Pacific Ocean, relatively neutral water temperatures have replaced the El Nino conditions of a year ago when water temperatures were as much as two degrees higher than normal. Perhaps the most dramatic change in water temperatures has taken place in the tropical Atlantic Ocean where much warmer-than-normal conditions of a year ago are virtually normal as we approach the end of April and there is even a pocket of colder-than-normal water just off Africa’s west coast. The tropics are a critically important part of the world with respect to the total energy budget and cooling trends can certainly have an inhibiting impact on the upcoming tropical season.
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The summer season is fast approaching, and probabilities are high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be nearly normal which happens to be right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark. Chances are indeed high since this temperature pattern of nearly normal conditions during the summer months of June, July, and August has taken place virtually every year since the turn of the century. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have featured above-normal temperatures in a pattern that too has also been very consistent in recent years.
It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August, however, which are the most important when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, if temperatures again remain nearly normal during the summer (melting) season, the chance for any additional significant drop off will be limited. Indeed, given this consistent summertime temperature trend in recent years, Arctic sea ice has shown resiliency both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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After the passage of a slow-moving upper-level low, somewhat drier air has filtered into the region and the threat of showers will be reduced for today and Thursday. Another system will head towards the Great Lakes later in the week and it’ll throw a couple of fronts into the eastern states from Friday into the weekend. As a result, there will be a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame to go along with very warm conditions.
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Tropical moisture continues to flow up along the eastern seaboard and it is accompanied by a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system. The result here will be another couple of days with occasional showers and thunderstorms can get into the mix as well. After this upper-level low finally “opens up” and exits off to the north and east later in the week, there can be a lull in the action for a brief time. However, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes by the end of the week and it will throw a couple of fronts our way between later Friday and Saturday night. As a result, there will be a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms from later Friday into Saturday and then drier air should finally return to the region for Sunday and Monday.
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Tropical moisture continues to flow up along the eastern seaboard and it is accompanied by a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system. The result here will be another couple of days with occasional showers and thunderstorms can get into the mix as well. After this upper-level low finally “opens up” and exits off to the north and east later in the week, there can be a lull in the action for a brief time. However, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes by the end of the week and it will throw a couple of fronts our way between later Friday and Saturday night. As a result, there will be a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms from later Friday into Saturday and then drier air should finally return to the region for Sunday and Monday.
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Tropical moisture continues to flow up along the eastern seaboard and it is accompanied by a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system. The result here will be another couple of days with occasional showers and thunderstorms can get into the mix as well. After this upper-level low finally “opens up” and exits off to the north and east later in the week, there can be a lull in the action for a brief time. However, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes by the end of the week and it will throw a couple of fronts our way between later Friday and Saturday night. As a result, there will be a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms from later Friday into Saturday and then drier air should finally return to the region for Sunday and Monday.
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It turns cooler today and the pattern becomes somewhat unsettled with the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon and again on Thursday. The period from Friday through Sunday will feature high temperatures generally in the low-to-middle 70’s and there can be a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.
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A plume of tropical moisture is flowing northward today along the eastern seaboard and this widespread area of moisture is supported aloft by a slow-moving and vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure. The end result here will be another extended period of showers from today through Thursday and there can be an isolated thunderstorm or two mixed in as well. At week’s end, another system over the Great Lakes will throw a couple of fronts our way and this will renew the threat of showers here from late Friday into Saturday and perhaps even a few strong thunderstorms as well.
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Very warm weather continues today with afternoon highs returning to the middle 80’s to go along with plenty of sunshine across the region. It becomes somewhat more unsettled for the mid-week and turns breezy and cooler with the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
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A plume of tropical moisture is flowing northward today along the eastern seaboard and this widespread area of moisture is supported aloft by a slow-moving and vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure. The end result here will be another extended period of showers from today through Thursday and there can be a few thunderstorms mixed in as well….some of the rain will be heavy at times. At week’s end, another system over the Great Lakes will throw a couple of fronts our way and this will renew the threat of showers here from late Friday into Saturday and perhaps even a few strong thunderstorms as well.
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