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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:15 AM | *Noticeably cooler today with a low-level east-to-northeast flow of air...becomes much warmer again on Saturday with the chance of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the NYC metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. There can be scattered showers in the area, but much of the day should be rain-free as we close out the work week. The “back door” cool front turns around this weekend and pushes to the north as a warm front. As a result, it’ll become much warmer here on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier this week will not make a return. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will return for tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night and any storm that occurs can be on the strong side. The weekend closes out with plenty of sun on Sunday, very warm conditions, and a reduced chance of rain.

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6:15 AM | *Cooler today with a low-level east-to-northeast flow of air...becomes much warmer again on Saturday with the chance of showers and storms*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the DC metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer again on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, very warm conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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6:00 AM | *Noticeably cooler today with a low-level east-to-northeast flow of air...becomes much warmer again on Saturday with the chance of showers and storms*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the Philly metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and scattered showers…perhaps a late day thunderstorm. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, warm conditions, and a reduced chance of rain.

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*Deadly Hurricane Audrey slammed into southwest Louisiana 68 years ago from tomorrow as the strongest June hurricane and the earliest major to ever make landfall in the US*

Paul Dorian

Nowadays, when the people of New Orleans think of devastating hurricanes they think of Katrina, but before 2005, the most notorious storm name in Louisiana was Audrey. Sixty-eight years ago from Friday, Hurricane Audrey slammed into the southwest coast of Louisiana and became the strongest June hurricane and earliest major (category 3) to make landfall in the US. Hurricane Audrey killed hundreds of people – estimated to be somewhere between 400 and 500 - including many of whom to this day remain unidentified and tragically, about one-third of those were children. The high number of deaths - in an era without satellite imagery - were attributed to the storm moving ashore earlier and stronger than predicted while most people were sleeping.

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6:15 AM | **Still hot today with the chance of showers/storms...cooler on Friday after passage of back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be remain hot here, but then it’ll turn cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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6:15 AM | **Turning cooler here today following the passage of a back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be much reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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6:15 AM | **Not as hot today and even cooler on Friday after passage of back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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