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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the from late Saturday night into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow. In terms of some specifics for the NYC metro region, estimates are for east-to-northeast wind gusts of 50-60 mph along coastal sections, 30-50 mph inland...3+ inches of rain along coastal sections, and 1-3 inches inland.

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6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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***Significant coastal storm to impact the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US from later Saturday into late Monday...prolonged period of onshore flow leads to coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears increasingly likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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6:00 AM | ***First frost of the season in many spots late tonight...significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday***

Paul Dorian

Canadian high pressure will take control of the weather today leading to the coolest day so far this fall season and the possibility of the first frost late tonight in many suburban locations. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good in the overnight hours as high pressure parks overhead and generates clear skies, light winds, and overnight temperatures well down in the 30’s in many areas.

Looking ahead to the weekend, strong low pressure system will form off the Southeast US coastline and produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the coastal Carolinas including - once again - the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This strong coastal storm system is then likely to push northward to or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later in the weekend...likely resulting in an impactful rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday.

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6:00 AM | ***First frost of the season in some spots late tonight...significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday***

Paul Dorian

Canadian high pressure will take control of the weather today leading to the coolest day so far this fall season and the possibility of the first frost late tonight in many suburban locations. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good in the overnight hours as high pressure parks overhead and generates clear skies, light winds, and overnight temperatures well down in the 30’s in many areas.

Looking ahead to the weekend, strong low pressure system will form off the Southeast US coastline and produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the coastal Carolinas including - once again - the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This strong coastal storm system is then likely to push northward to or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later in the weekend...likely resulting in an impactful rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday.

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6:00 AM | ***First frost of the season in some spots late tonight...significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday***

Paul Dorian

Canadian high pressure will take control of the weather today leading to the coolest day so far this fall season and the possibility of the first frost late tonight in many suburban locations. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good in the overnight hours as high pressure parks overhead and generates clear skies, light winds, and overnight temperatures down in the 30’s in some areas.

Looking ahead to the weekend, strong low pressure system will form off the Southeast US coastline and produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the coastal Carolinas including - once again - the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This strong coastal storm system is then likely to push northward to or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later in the weekend...likely resulting in an impactful rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday.

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****Frontal boundary zone to act as a catalyst for a powerful weekend coastal storm...high impact expected in the coastal Carolinas and increasingly likely in the eastern Mid-Atlantic****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region. It appears quite certain that this strong storm will then push far enough to the north to pound away at the coastal Carolinas with heavy rainfall and strong winds...another highly impactful event for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. After that, odds continue to increase that this weekend storm system will then push to the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline - act as a classic Nor’easter - and bring impactful rain and wind to coastal sections for an extended period of time. By early next week, the northward progress of this storm system will likely come to an end as strong high pressure builds across southeastern Canada (“confluence”) acting as a barrier in the atmosphere. As a result, the storm should turn east or it may even loop back around for awhile early next week near the Mid-Atlantic coastline before ultimately pushing out to the open waters of the western Atlantic.

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