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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

*Second year in a row with below-normal tropical activity across the Northern Hemisphere… western Pacific leads the way with 7th straight down year...no hurricanes hit US for first time in a decade*

Paul Dorian

The 2025 hurricane season is winding down across the Northern Hemisphere, and it has been the second straight season with below-normal activity as measured by the metric known as the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)”. The most important region when it comes to tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere is the western half of the Pacific Ocean as it features the highest ACE value of any sector from a climatological point-of view and it was well below-normal for the 2025 tropical season. In the Atlantic Basin, tropical activity ended up slightly above the normal in terms of ACE thanks in large part to the end-of-season blockbuster hurricane named “Melissa” which reached category 5 status and lasted for a lengthy period. However, there were no landfalling hurricanes in the US for the first time since 2015, and the number of hurricanes (5) was below the long-term average of 7.2.   

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6:00 AM | ***Lowest temperatures so far this season coming in the overnight hours as very cold air mass arrives behind frontal passage***

Paul Dorian

The week will start off with far below-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday night. Temperatures will struggle today to climb past the freezing mark and overnight lows should be in the lower teens in most areas...coldest readings so far this season. Some moderation in temperatures will come by the middle of the week as a low pressure system passes by to our north, and then a “clipper” system could produce some snow and/or rain around here later in the week. Looking ahead, another frigid air mass is likely to impact much of the central and eastern US this weekend supported by an extremely strong Canadian high pressure system.

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6:00 AM | ***Lowest temperatures so far this season coming in the overnight hours as very cold air mass arrives behind frontal passage***

Paul Dorian

The week will start off with far below-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday night. Temperatures will struggle today to climb past the freezing mark and overnight lows should be in the lower teens in most areas...coldest readings so far this season. Some moderation in temperatures will come by the middle of the week as a low pressure system passes by to our north, and then a “clipper” system could produce some snow and/or rain around here later in the week. Looking ahead, another frigid air mass is likely to impact much of the central and eastern US this weekend supported by an extremely strong Canadian high pressure system.

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6:00 AM | ***Low pressure passes by to our south today...some snow can make it into the DC metro; especially, on the south and west sides...coldest night so far on the way***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide by to our south today and produce accumulating snow across much of central and southern Virginia. In fact, some of the snow can make it as far north as the DC metro region; especially, into those areas on the south and west sides of DC so watch out for possible slick spots and small accumulations later this morning. The week will start off with far below-normal temperatures following the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday night and temperatures later tonight will drop to their lowest levels so far this season. Some moderation in temperatures will come by the middle of the week as a low pressure system passes by to our north, and then a “clipper” system could produce some snow and/or rain around here later in the week.

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*The role of the weather on December 7th, 1941 - "a date which will live in infamy” - and a little known important indirect benefit from the weather*

Paul Dorian

The weather on Oahu, Hawaii in the early morning hours of Sunday, December 7th, 1941 was not at all unusual for the time of year with mild temperatures and mainly clear skies.  Unfortunately, the weather conditions on that particular day would play a role in the bombing of the U.S. naval base by Japanese fighter planes at Pearl Harbor near Honolulu, Hawaii.  As Japanese fighters crossed the Pacific Ocean, they were given hope that their mission would succeed when the announcement was made of “clouds mostly over the mounts…visibility good”.  It is believed that the decision to attack on that particular day had plenty to do with the projected favorable weather conditions.

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5:30 AM | **NYC metro on the northern fringes of low pressure with light snow possible**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is pushing to the northeast today from the southeastern states and its moisture field is moving into some very cold and dry Arctic air across the Mid-Atlantic region. The result is that snow has broken out across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and accumulations are likely in the region from DC/Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New Jersey. In fact, the DC metro region can see as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow and as much as 4 or 5 inches can accumulate in sections of central and southern Virginia. The Philly and NYC metro regions will be on the northern fringe of this system with light snow a possibility and perhaps a coating in some areas.

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5:30 AM | **Philly metro on the northern fringes of low pressure today with light snow possible**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is pushing to the northeast today from the southeastern states and its moisture field is moving into some very cold and dry Arctic air across the Mid-Atlantic region. The result is that snow has broken out across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and accumulations are likely today in the region from DC/Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New Jersey. In fact, the DC metro region can see as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow and as much as 4 or 5 inches can accumulate in sections of central and southern Virginia. The Philly and NYC metro regions will be on the northern fringe of this system with light snow a possibility and perhaps a coating in some areas.

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5:00 AM | ***A southern Mid-Atlantic snowfall today with some accumulations in the DC metro region...watch for slick spots***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is pushing to the northeast today and its moisture field is moving into some very cold and dry Arctic air across the Mid-Atlantic region. The result is that snow has broken out across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and accumulations of as much as 2 or 3 inches are possible today in parts of the DC metro region. The steadiest snow should wind down by mid-day and then snow showers are possible in the afternoon and there can be a bit of freezing drizzle. In areas just to the south of us, as much as 4 or 5 inches can accumulate today across central and southern Virginia. Following today’s system, the bulk of the weekend should turn out to be mainly dry and moderately cold with some sunshine likely on both days. By Sunday night, another strong cold front and its associated “clipper” low pressure system can bring some rain and/or snow shower activity to the metro region.

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