11:00 AM | ***Some accumulating snow early Thursday with arrival of the next Arctic air mass…another snow threat Friday night/Saturday, but its northern extent is still in question***
Paul Dorian
Low pressure will form along an incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone on Thursday and this should lead to a period of accumulating snow for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days as it will be a focus area for the formation of low pressure systems. One such low pressure system should bring a period of accumulating snow early Thursday upon the arrival of the next Arctic blast. Another low pressure system will form along the stalled-out frontal boundary zone at week’s end and the extent to which it can push to the north will dictate how much snow, if any, can fall on Friday night and/or Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system will have to be watched for later in the upcoming weekend as the cold and active weather pattern in the eastern US will continue right through the rest of the month.
Another Arctic air mass will filter into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Thursday resulting in some very cold conditions by Thursday night and Friday. The Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in coming days as one or more low pressure systems will form along this temperature gradient. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The weather will turn milder on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region as low-level winds shift to a southwesterly direction ahead of the next incoming Arctic cold frontal system. In fact, temperatures should reach well into the 40’s for afternoon highs in the I-95 corridor making Wednesday the mildest day of the week. The Arctic front will slowly edge its way to the southeast on Wednesday night initially bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, as the next Arctic air mass filters into the region early in the day on Thursday, the rain will likely change to snow and there can even be a period of steady accumulating snow. While the accumulation amounts should not be substantial during this event – perhaps in the 1-3 inch range – it does look like the snow will come at a bad time right around the Thursday morning rush hour so it is certainly something for commuters to monitor.
There is a storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Friday night/Saturday time frame; however, its northern extent is still in question. A second threat could come later in the weekend from the upper-level wave of energy over the southwestern states early Saturday. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Following the passage of the slow-moving Arctic front, very cold air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region for Thursday night and Friday. In fact, we may experience another one of those overnights where temperatures bottom out in the 10-15 degree range in the I-95 corridor for lows. On Friday, with temperatures holding in the 20’s in the now entrenched Arctic air mass, attention will turn to the southeastern states where the stalled-out frontal boundary zone will reside. Low pressure is likely to form along that frontal boundary zone and begin a push to the northeast near or along the eastern seaboard. The extent to which this system can move to the north along the coastline at week’s end will determine how much, if any, accumulating snow can fall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during Friday night and/or Saturday. While some questions remain as it is still a few days away, there is a good deal of potential with this early weekend storm threat in terms of snow accumulations. One thing is pretty certain, if a storm does move far enough to the north to impact the Mid-Atlantic region early this weekend, it will encounter some very cold air with strong and expansive high pressure acting as an anchor to the north/northwest for this Arctic air mass. Yet another low pressure system could become a threat later in the upcoming weekend as the overall active and cold weather pattern in the eastern US looks like it will continue right through the remainder of the month…and some of the upcoming cold can be on the extreme side.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com