It is not often that “severe”, “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions are limited to only 1.58 percent of the continental US, but that is exactly what we have right now across the country. We know that these good times will not last for too much longer; nonetheless, it is worth noting that this is about as good as it gets for the US regarding drought. In fact, going back to the year 2000, only the early part of 2010 featured somewhat similar limited drought conditions on a nationwide basis to what we are enjoying today. Just under five years ago in August of 2012, the nation was at a real dry point and nearly 25 percent of the country was classified with “extreme” drought.
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Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year - already more spotless days than all of 2016. In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010, the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this can have many important consequences.
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The overall numbers are likely to be near normal this year in terms of the number of Atlantic Basin (includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) tropical storms and the sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea makes the southern and eastern US somewhat vulnerable to “home-grown” tropical hits. The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include an unfolding weak El Nino in the equatorial Pacific and a mixed picture of warmer-than-normal and colder-than-normal patches of water across the Atlantic Basin.
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Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US is experiencing an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May. Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we heads towards the middle of May. In addition, temperatures in the Arctic region - which have been generally running at above-normal levels in recent weeks - have actually dropped to below-normal in recent days and, if this trend continues, it should prevent any chance for sea ice extent to reach record lows up there this summer. One of the main factors contributing to this late season cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere is a blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere centered over Greenland and Iceland and this tends to contribute to cold air outbreaks into the land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
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A cold wave has hit Europe and it looks like much of the continent will stay well below normal right through the rest of the month of April. In addition to the unusual cold, heavy snow accumulations are likely over the next ten days in many higher elevation locations (e.g., Alps) and accumulating snow is probable as far south as southern Italy and Greece.
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It is not often that “severe”, “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions are limited to only 1.6% of the continental US, but that is exactly what is currently taking place. Going back to the year 2000, only February and March of 2010 had similar limited drought conditions on a nationwide basis that we are enjoying today. In fact, the news may actually get better with the next “drought monitor” update as the numbers cited in today’s posting reflect only precipitation data registered through last Tuesday, April 4th and does not include the substantial rainfall that fell late last week in California and across the southern and eastern US.
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Just when it looked like El Nino was getting ready to overspread the tropical Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures something somewhat unexpected has taken place. While still above normal, sea surface temperatures have actually dropped quite noticeably in recent days in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean near the west coast of South America. Computer forecast models still are generally quite supportive of the idea of a strengthening El Nino going into the middle and latter parts of the year, but recent observations certainly have to raise some questions about those predictions.
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Today's soaking rain and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region appears to be just the opening round in what is looking like a very active weather pattern for much of the nation in the foreseeable future. The next ten days or so will feature wave-after-wave traveling across the country in a general west-to-east fashion and each one can produce snow over the Rockies and in New England, severe weather in the central and southern states, and significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, its been somewhat dry in recent weeks in much of the south-central and eastern US and those are the regions that are most likely to get pounded with significant rainfall in this unfolding active weather pattern.
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The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch since April 2010 according to spaceweather.com. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010 - the last time there was a two week stretch with no visible sunspots - the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep. There have already been 26 spotless days in 2017 (34% of the entire year) and this follows 32 spotless days last year which occurred primarily during the latter part of the year. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.
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Mount Etna is located on the eastern edge of the Italian island of Sicily - the largest island in the Mediterranean Sea - and it erupted yesterday which is its third eruption of the year. Etna is Europe’s tallest and most active volcano and has been erupting for millennia in the southern part of Europe. It has been particularly unsettled in recent weeks and there was a group of tourists and a BBC camera crew nearby at the time of Thursday’s explosion. The group was pelted by steam and boiling hot rocks as Etna erupted and sprinted to a nearby rescue although ten were injured, none seriously.
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