Low pressure is tracking well offshore this morning and it will generate more clouds in the region with the chance for some light rain or drizzle. It is not out the question that a few ice pellets mix in tonight in the normally colder suburban locations to the north and west. Temperatures will remain below-normal as we begin the new week and should remain at chilly levels for the next few days. Another cold frontal system will approach the region at the end of the week from our northwest.
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Temperatures will climb to the 50 degree mark for highs later today which is higher than the past few days, but still below-normal for the middle of November. A cold front will pass through the region tonight and its passage will knock off more than ten degrees as we begin the weekend. High pressure will build into the region early in the weekend, but then it will push offshore and low pressure will move northeastward over the western Atlantic Ocean. There is a chance that some rain backs into the immediate I-95 corridor later Sunday into Monday - possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow at times - and coastal sections may have some strong winds to deal with as well.
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Hundreds of daily low temperature records were set this week in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and, at several sites, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly records that have been set for November are quite impressive indeed as they’ll typically take place in the last week or so of a given month during this time of year. Computer forecast models have been somewhat mixed recently in their temperature anomaly predictions for the US during the remainder of November, but it appears to me that the colder-than-normal pattern will continue right to the end of November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
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The unusual early season chill will moderate some today and tomorrow, but it’ll stay below-normal for the middle of November and we’ll take another downward step on Saturday following the passage of another cold frontal system. High temperatures on Friday afternoon will be in the lower 50's in the DC metro region, but will likely hold in the upper 30's on Saturday afternoon. By late in the weekend and early next week, we’ll have to watch a strengthening low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean which could impact coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic region. A second coastal low will have to be monitored for the middle of next week.
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Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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Numerous daily low temperature records have been set this morning across the eastern third of the nation and there have already been some all-time low temperatures recorded for the month of November. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will struggle here to reach the upper 30’s which may be the “lowest” high temperatures ever recorded here on November 13th. The unusual early season chill will only slowly moderate on Thursday and Friday and then take a step backwards on Saturday following the passage of another cold front which may knock ten degrees off the afternoon highs between Friday and Saturday. By early next week, we’ll have to watch low pressure near the coastline as it tracks northeastward over the western Atlantic.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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An Arctic air mass has arrived in the I-95 corridor and temperatures have already peaked for the day and will drop into the 30's as the day progresses. Rain associated with the arrival of the Arctic front will wind down early this morning, but then may resume by mid-day or early afternoon and the rain could change to snow showers later in the day with small accumulations possible. By late tonight, temperatures could be in record low territory near the 20 degree mark - way below-normal for the middle of November. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to reach the middle 30's for highs which may turn out to be the "lowest" high temperature ever recorded for the date.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass will pass through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early tomorrow morning and it will likely result in a rain-changing-to-snow weather scenario. This Arctic blast is likely to result in numerous daily record lows across the central and eastern US over the next few days and, in some cases, perhaps the lowest temperatures ever recorded for this early in the season. In addition, significant accumulating snow is likely over the next 24-36 hours from Ohio/Michigan to western New York to northern New England. Rain should arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC just before daybreak and then, as colder air filters into the region, a changeover to snow for a brief time is likely not only in the immediate I-95 corridor, but ultimately all the way to the coastline. The precipitation will wind down later tomorrow and then temperatures will drop to the upper teens in many spots by early Wednesday morning – perhaps breaking low temperature records in some locations. The much colder-than-normal conditions will stick around into Thursday and then some moderation will take place at the end of the week, but temperatures will remain below-normal.
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First let me mention that today is "Mercury transit day"...a rare astronomical event and the skies are cooperating (see perspectaweather.com for more. A much colder-than-normal air mass for this time of year will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region early Tuesday. There will be a period of rain from late tonight into tomorrow morning which may change to snow for a brief time as the colder air filters into the region. Temperatures tomorrow night will drop to near 20 degrees in some spots and some records could fall by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will then struggle to reach the mid 30's on Wednesday – some 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. The unusual early season chill will stick around on Thursday and then there will be some moderation in temperatures at week’s end, but still remaining colder-than-normal.
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