Today is an unusually chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures far below-normal for the 6th of May aided by a low-level easterly flow of air and thick cloud cover. In fact, high temperatures today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will be confined to levels rarely experienced for this time of year. Believe it or not, this air mass may pale in comparison to what is on the way for the early part of the weekend.
Quite an amazing outbreak of cold air will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Friday night and the cold frontal passage may actually be accompanied by a rain-changing-to-snow event – even into higher elevation suburban locations just to the north and west of I-95. Saturday will turn out to be a very windy and unusually cold day in much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation with temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC perhaps more than twenty degrees below normal. While Sunday, Mother’s Day, will remain colder-than-normal, the afternoon will become much more bearable when compared to Saturday as there should be far less in the way of wind and plenty of sunshine. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue into mid-May across the central and eastern US, but a pattern change to warmer looks like it’ll begin during the 3rd week of the month - and tropical season may not be far behind.
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Showers will continue today as low pressure intensifies off-shore and it’ll be unusually cool as the thick cloud cover will combine with an easterly flow to keep highs confined to the low-to-mid 50’s. These kind of highs could very well end up being some of the lowest maximum temperatures ever recorded for the 6th of May. After a breezy and cool day on Thursday, more rain will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday afternoon as an even stronger low pressure system moves in this direction from the Tennessee Valley and there can be rain and/or snow showers on Friday night. This system will intensify significantly by the time it reaches the New England coastline on Saturday morning and it’ll usher in a very cold air mass for this time of year. Not only will it be an unusually cold day for this part of the nation on Saturday, but it’ll be very unstable as well with an extremely strong upper-level low sitting right on top of the region. As a result, NW winds will become very strong and there can even be a rain or snow shower in the area. Mother’s Day (Sunday) will get off to a very cold start and it’ll stay on the cool side of normal in the afternoon; however, the PM hours should be a lot more bearable than Saturday with far less wind and plenty of sunshine. Looking ahead, a warmer weather pattern finally appears on the horizon likely beginning during the 3rd week of May and tropical season will not be far behind.
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The temperature reached 74 degrees yesterday at Philly Intl Airport, but a cold frontal passage ushered in considerably cooler air for today with mid-day readings still in the 50’s. It’ll turn even chillier on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around and occasional showers. In fact, some spots may experience some of the lowest maximum temperatures ever recorded for the 6th of May in this unusually cool air mass for this time of year. An even colder air mass is headed this way for the beginning of the Mother’s Day weekend and Saturday could turn out to be quite an amazing weather day in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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It turns cooler today and it stays quite cool during the rest of the work week. In fact, maximum temperatures on Wednesday may turn out to be some of the lowest ever recorded here for the 6th of May and there will be some rain shower activity throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. More rain will reach us on Friday as a strong cold front arrives and it'll turn even colder for the start of the Mother's Day weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be far below-normal and there will be a stiff NW wind. A rain shower or two cannot be ruled out and even a snow shower is possible on Saturday in some of the higher elevation interior locations well to the west and north of the District. It stays cool on Sunday, but it'll be more bearable as winds will be down and sunshine should prevail. Another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the Mid-Atlantic region later next week.
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The contrast between this past weekend and next weekend will be quite remarkable in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. An unusually cold air mass for this time of year will drop into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the early part of the upcoming Mother’s Day weekend and it will contrast markedly with the above-normal temperatures experienced this past Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the chill that is headed this way for the late week/weekend may very well result in near record lows across a wide region of the nation extending from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard and snow is even a possibility in the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US will quite likely continue until at least the middle of the month May.
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Unfortunately, the nice and warm weekend that we just experienced does not mean that the cold air outbreaks are over for the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, there could be some record or near record cold in much of the central and eastern US by the upcoming weekend. It’ll turn out to be quite windy today and just a bit cooler compared to Sunday and then turn even cooler for the remainder of the work week. An even colder air mass for this time of year will arrive by the upcoming Mother's Day weekend and highs on Saturday are likely to be confined to the 50's with overnight lows in the 30's and it'll remain chilly on Sunday.
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A slow-moving upper-level wave of energy will edge on top of the Mid-Atlantic region today and it’ll keep it quite unsettled around here with occasional showers likely and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The good news is that the weekend should get off to a decent start after early morning clouds on Saturday with some sunshine developing and mild conditions. Yet another low pressure system will, however, head our way late in the weekend returning to us the chance of showers by late Sunday afternoon or early evening.
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Tropical moisture is flowing northward into the eastern US from the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical moisture is combining with a painfully slow-moving frontal system and a vigorous wave of energy in the upper atmosphere to fuel a widespread area of heavy rain that extends from Florida to the Northeast US. The heavier and steadier rain has moved into the DC metro region and should arrive in Philly this afternoon and New York City by this evening. The potential exists for as much as 1.5 - 3.0 inches of rain in much of the eastern US between now and mid-day Friday. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the heavy rainfall and the already pretty well saturated grounds. Winds will also be an important factor with this storm system as gusts could easily pass 50 mph in some spots; especially, near and along coastal regions - watch for power outages.
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A north-to-south oriented surface cold frontal system that trails low pressure over the Great Lakes is inching its way towards the east coast and the atmosphere will moisten up significantly ahead it with an influx of tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico, SW Atlantic, and Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical air will set the stage for excessive rainfall from today into tonight in much of the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. In fact, given the very slow movement of the frontal system and the high precipitable water amounts expected, total rainfall amounts could end up between 1.5 and 3 inches and flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the already saturated grounds. The upper-level energy supporting the low pressure will move over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday generating additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The weekend should start off on a decent note with some sunshine on Saturday and milder conditions after possible early morning lingering clouds. Another system, however, is likely to push more showers into the region by later Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into the month of May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country is very active as we wind down the month of April and it has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one has dropped southeastward into the Mississippi Valley region from southwestern Canada. This wave of energy aloft and its corresponding surface low pressure system will move very slowly over the next 48 hours due to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over the southern part of Canada. These slow-moving systems and a painfully slow-moving surface frontal boundary zone will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to produce a major rain event from tomorrow into early Friday in the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. Localized flash flooding is likely to become a serious concern during this upcoming event with 2-4 inches of rain on the table in many areas.
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