It looks like another 24 hours or so of unsettled weather conditions for the Mid-Atlantic region due to the combination of upper-level energy, a meandering frontal system, and strong winds in the upper part of the atmosphere. There can be additional showers and thunderstorms today and tonight with the chance for some heavy rainfall at times and, given the already well-saturated grounds, this could lead to flash flooding in some spots. High pressure will build into the area this weekend and there will be improving weather conditions although a couple of showers cannot be ruled out for Saturday, maybe a thunderstorm. Elsewhere, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene looks rather quiet and should stay so for the next several days. One final note, the annual Perseid meteor shower will peak next week…best to look for meteors in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
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The next couple of days and nights look very unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as a frontal system will meander nearby leading to the chance of showers and thunderstorms right through tomorrow night. Flash flooding is indeed a concern given the already well-saturated grounds and the expected new rainfall which can be heavy at times. Looking ahead, the weekend is shaping up to be pretty decent for this time of year with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday and then likely rain-free conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will turn cooler today and remain rather moderate over the next few days. As far as the tropics are concerned, it looks quiet on that scene with a lull in the action for the Atlantic Basin during the next several days.
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A quiet day is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region following the wild weather of Tuesday that was associated with Tropical Storm “Isaias”. “Isaias” has raced into the southeastern part of Canada and high pressure will build into the region and generally take control of the weather for the next few days. There can be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as a weak front meanders in the region, but much of the time should be rain-free. As far as the tropics are concerned, it looks quieter on that scene as well with a lull in the action for the Atlantic Basin which has had a very active season so far.
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The good news is that “Isaias” is accelerating to the northeast and the wild weather should wind down later this afternoon in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, the sun could actually return in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region later today. The bad news is that there is another several hours to get through before we get to that point with some pretty rough weather including more flooding rainfall, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, numerous power outages and isolated tornadoes. By later tonight, “Isaias” will race across interior New England on its way to southeastern Canada and the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will improve markedly overnight and on Wednesday.
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After re-gaining hurricane status last night (category 1), "Isaias" made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina and is now accelerating to the northeast. Torrential rainfall will continue into the afternoon hours in the region with powerful wind gusts as well as "Isaias" moves through at a rapid pace (now 33 mph to the NNE). Localized flash flooding will continue for the next several hours and there can be isolated tornadoes and some power outages as well. The tropical system moves into interior New England by later tonight and big-time improvement comes our way on Wednesday.
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“Isaias” stayed off the east coast of Florida on Sunday as it pushed slowly to the northwest while maintaining strong tropical storm status. The center of “Isaias” is now moving due north and has reached the latitude of the Georgia/Florida border region. “Isaias” should begin a gradual turn to the northeast later today and will likely make landfall tonight in the Carolinas - perhaps in the border region of South and North Carolina. There is a chance that “Isaias” re-gains category one hurricane status before it makes landfall as it continues to push over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream and encounters less wind shear.
After that, “Isaias” will move northeast along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor and become a major rain and wind producer in the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions on Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is the potential for several inches of rain in these areas along with strong sustained winds and potentially damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding. Numerous power outages are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region during this upcoming event. “Isaias” will pick up speed as it pushes to the north/northeast over the next 24-48 hours reaching the interior sections of northern New England by early Wednesday.
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**A major rain and wind event is coming to the I-95 corridor on Tuesday that can result in several inches of rain, strong sustained winds and potential damaging wind gusts (50 mph inland, 70 mph coastal sections), isolated tornadoes, and localized flash flooding conditions.** Isaias” is pushing to the north this morning from just off the northeast coast of Florida and it is likely to make landfall later tonight somewhere near the South Carolina/North Carolina border region. "Isaias" is classified now as a strong tropical storm with max sustained winds at 70 mph and could intensify into a category one hurricane before making landfall tonight. After that, “Isaias” will likely move towards Norfolk, VA by early tomorrow and then over the Delmarva Peninsula/Southern New Jersey later tomorrow bringing with it tropical storm conditions to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The main action associated with "Isaias" could begin as early as late tonight and end as late as early Wednesday; however, the time period in focus is Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure should head this way at mid-week and quiet things down in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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“Isaias” weakened slightly yesterday into “tropical storm” status and it remains so early Sunday morning despite a burst of deep convection in the overnight hours. That burst of thunderstorm activity has not resulted in any significant improvement in the overall structure of “Isaias” which is currently about 40 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, FL and it is not outside the realm of possibility that it regains enough strength later today to reach weak hurricane status. Nonetheless, “Isaias” will ride up to fairly close to the east-central coastline of Florida with some heavy rainfall and strong winds to last about 12 hours or so once they begin later this morning. On Monday, “Isaias” will begin to take a turn to the north and then northeast and likely make landfall somewhere in the Carolinas - perhaps as a hurricane. After that, “Isaias” will continue to ride up along the east coast and generate a major rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US - ultimately resulting in impact extending all the from Florida to Maine.
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“Isaias” became the second hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season in the overnight hours as it pulled away from the island of Hispaniola and out over the very warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean. The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start - now with nine named systems – and it will very likely remain quite dynamic as we begin the month of August. In fact, a couple other tropical waves are now churning over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic - virtually guaranteeing the energetic season will continue in coming days. Hurricane “Isaias” is likely to continue on a NW track over the next 24-36 hours that will bring to a position just off the east coast of Florida this weekend with significant impacts to the Bahama Islands and southern/eastern Florida. “Isaias” is now classified as a category 1 hurricane and there is a chance it intensifies to a category 2 storm before it makes its closest approach to Florida’s east coast. After that, “Isaias” may very well ride up along the east coast ultimately resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to eastern New England.
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A meandering frontal system will keep it unsettled around here through the upcoming weekend with a shot at showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis and there is potential today for some heavy rainfall. A bigger story will be the drop in temperatures with highs today doing no better than the lower 80's and highs should be generally confined to the 80's over the next several days. Meanwhile, Hurricane “Isaias” is going to significantly impact the Bahamas and southern/eastern Florida over the next 24-48 hours and then its moisture field could ride up along the east coast during the early part of next week.
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