The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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A cold front will stall out in close proximity today and while it’ll push far enough to usher in a somewhat more comfortable air mass, it’ll stay close enough to keep it a bit unsettled with a shower possible at times through the day. After a pretty decent day on Saturday, this same front will lift northward on Sunday as a warm front and it could generate showers and thunderstorms as we close out the weekend. High pressure to our northwest will build into the region early next week and another very pleasant air mass will drop across the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic.
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If you try to pinpoint the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season to one particular day in terms of the number of active storms, it actually comes down to today, September 10th. Well, here we are and right on queue, there are numerous waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to just off the west coast of Africa. A few of these tropical waves are relatively close to the US and will have an impact in the near-term while another few systems are potential concerns for the second half of September. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains unusually quiet in terms of tropical activity in what should also be an active time of year. In fact, the overall tropical activity in the world’s largest ocean has been way below-normal in 2020 and this has contributed to a below-normal tropical season so far for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
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Strong high pressure has pushed offshore and a cold front is approaching the Mid-Atlantic region from our northwest and it’ll keep it unsettled around here today with continued showers and possible strong thunderstorms. With the added boost of tropical moisture, some of the rainfall today and tonight can be heavy at times. This same front will stall out nearby later tonight and it’ll battle with high pressure to our north for control over the next few days. A more comfortable air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday and Saturday; however, showers cannot be ruled out in the area on either day with the stalled frontal system in close proximity. The front lifts northward on Sunday as a warm front and it could generate more showers and thunderstorms as we close out the upcoming weekend.
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Strong high pressure that has controlled our weather during the past several days will lose influence today and we'll have a good chance for mid-day and afternoon showers and some of the rain can come down hard at times. The threat of rain will continue tonight and on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold frontal system and it’ll stay on the warm and humid side. High pressure builds into the area from the north on Friday and it’ll result in comfortable conditions around here on both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a warm front will arrive from the south and we’ll have a return of unsettled weather conditions to end the weekend.
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After a spectacular stretch of nice weather that encompassed the long holiday weekend, high pressure will remain in control of our weather for one more day in the Mid-Atlantic region. After some early morning fog, skies will become mainly sunny and temperatures should climb well into the 80’s this afternoon after a fairly cool start to the day. The weather becomes more unsettled again on Wednesday and Thursday as a slow-moving cold front approaches the area with a renewed shot of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns at the end of the week with nice weather once again quite likely for Friday and Saturday before it turns unsettled again on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Rocky Mountain States are experiencing wild weather conditions with summer-like heat on Monday to accumulating snow today in many higher elevation areas from Wyoming to New Mexico and, in some cases, significant amounts.
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A strong cold front has passed through the region and high pressure will expand eastward today into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Upper Midwest. As a result, we’ll experience a stretch of nice weather from today through Labor Day Monday of next week. The same high pressure system will push off the east coast early next week and a broad southwesterly flow of air will develop in the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere and we’ll become warmer and more humid by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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A stretch of nice weather begins on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region and continues through Monday, but there is a threat of severe weather before we get there. A strong cold front is crossing the Great Lakes region today and headed towards the Mid-Atlantic and its approach will enhance the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the 2-9 PM time period. Any storm that forms later today or early tonight can become severe with potentially damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall…perhaps even a few isolated tornadoes. The good news is that all of this activity clears out by early tomorrow setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from tomorrow through the Labor Day holiday.
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A warm front lifted through the region on Wednesday and now attention turns to an incoming strong cold front to our northwest that will push through by early Friday. Today will turn out to be quite warm ahead of this frontal system and there is an enhanced chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. Any storm that forms later today or early tonight can be on the strong-to-severe side with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Following the frontal passage early tomorrow, high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region and we’ll experience a stretch of nice weather from tomorrow into early next week.
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The next 24-36 hours will be an active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms both later today and again later tomorrow. A warm front lifted northward through the region earlier today and it has resulted in an increase in overall humidity levels as well as an increase temperatures now peaking in the low-to-middle 80’s. Another frontal boundary zone will approach the I-95 corridor region later in the day and this will set off some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity…likely in the 4 to 10 PM time period. An even stronger front will approach from the northwest late tomorrow and this too is likely to generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The good news is that all of this activity clears out early Friday - setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from Friday into early next week.
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