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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | **Active weather pattern continues into the weekend with multiple chances of rain**

Paul Dorian

A cool front will approach the region later today and it is a system that will be slowing down as it reaches the eastern seaboard. As a result, low pressure is likely to form later tomorrow along the stalling-out frontal boundary zone near the east coast. Showers are possible later today and tonight associated with the arrival of the frontal system and then more rain is likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night linked with the low pressure. Some of the rain later tomorrow and tomorrow night can be heavy at times. High pressure builds into the region for the latter part of the work week, but the early part of the weekend could feature another low pressure system in the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, Saturday could actually turn out to be a rather cool and rainy day for this time of year with some improvement possible on Sunday, but still cooler-than-normal temperatures.

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7:00 AM | *No sustained heat this week and a couple chances for significant rainfall*

Paul Dorian

June is now well underway and the good news in the weather department is that it looks like we can get through this first full week of the month without hitting the 90 degree mark. The bad news is that there will be at least a couple of chances for some significant rainfall. A cool front will approach the region on Tuesday and its slow movement will allow low pressure to develop at mid-week along its boundary zone. Consequently, the threat of rain will increase later tomorrow and continue into Wednesday night and some of it can be heavy at times. High pressure builds into the region for the latter part of the work week, but the early part of the weekend could feature another low pressure system in the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, Saturday could be wet and cool for this time of year and some of that rainfall can be heavy at times.

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7:00 AM | *A nice first weekend of June...comfortably warm temperatures and low humidity levels with plenty of sunshine*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night and its passage will pave the way for a nice weekend throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure builds into the eastern states today and will control the weather through the weekend which will feature comfortable temperatures and humidity levels along with plenty of sunshine. Another cold front approaches the area from later Tuesday into Wednesday of next week bringing with it our next chance of showers.

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12:45 PM | ***An update on the season’s first tropical threat…an update on the heavy rain/severe thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.

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7:00 AM | **Unsettled conditions through tonight with the threat of showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be strong**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will form along an incoming frontal system boundary zone today and it will enhance the chances of more rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and this is likely to lead to some strong-to-potentially severe thunderstorm activity from later today into early tonight. High pressure will take back control of the weather around here on Friday and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the entire Mid-Atlantic region.

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11:15 AM | *Unsettled weather for the Mid-Atlantic region from later today through tomorrow night to include the chance of some heavy rain and strong thunderstorms…an early tropical threat*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a back door cool front has brought relief today to the New York City metro region, New Jersey and it’ll turn out to be a bit better in the Philly area as well as easterly low-level winds have developed during the past few hours. Unfortunately, there will be no relief today in the DC metro region with highs likely to again be in the 90’s. This weak frontal boundary zone and another front will cause unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic from later today through tomorrow night that will include the chance for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the region.

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7:00 AM | *Stays very warm today, but gets unsettled with a chance of PM showers/storms...next front brings additional threat of rain/strong-to-severe storms on Thursday/Thursday night*

Paul Dorian

Another period of unsettled weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from later today through tomorrow night and it can include some heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm activity. A weak frontal boundary zone will stall out in the Mid-Atlantic region today and a strong cold front approaches later Thursday. The stalled-out boundary zone will be the focus of any shower or thunderstorm activity that forms later today and tonight and then low pressure will develop nearby on Thursday enhancing the chance of showers and potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control by the time we get to the weekend which is shaping up to be quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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2:00 PM | *Back door cool front brings dramatic relief today to Boston…brings much relief to NYC and New Jersey on Wednesday...little relief in Philly and virtually none in DC*

Paul Dorian

Hot weather dominated the scene today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and one of the ways to get relief is from a “conventional” cool frontal system that passes from west-to-east. However, long-time residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US know that one other way to get a break in the heat is for a back door cool front to slide from northwest-to-southwest which can produce dramatic temperature changes in a short period of time. That is exactly what happened today in Boston with a temperature drop of nearly 20 degrees in about 10 minutes and a big change is in store on Wednesday for New York City and New Jersey.

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7:00 AM | *A hot day to start the holiday-shortened week*

Paul Dorian

A hot day begins the holiday-shortened week in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures this afternoon in the lower 90’s. A cold front approaches the region later tomorrow bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This front will tend to stall out by Thursday and an area of low pressure will ride along the boundary zone likely resulting in additional shower and thunderstorm activity. High pressure is likely to take control of the weather as we get to the weekend which may turn out to be quite nice with comfortably warm temperatures.

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7:00 AM | ****Showers and possible severe storms later today into later tonight...holiday weekend starts off shaky, but ends pretty well although it gets very warm****

Paul Dorian

The combination of an increasingly humid air mass, strong surface frontal system and a vigorous mid-level low will help to generate numerous showers in the Mid-Atlantic region from today into tonight and possible severe thunderstorms. In fact, there may be two bands of thunderstorms to closely monitor during this event- one during the mid-day/early afternoon hours and a second during the late evening. The main severe weather parameter threats will be damaging wind gusts and “flash-flooding” downpours., and isolated tornadoes are also on the table. The upper-level low will be rather slow-moving in an easterly direction and this will result in an unsettled weather day on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The upper-level will then exit off the coast by Sunday resulting in improvement to end the weekend and the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine, very warm conditions, and highs well up in the 80’s.

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