After an active day on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region, today should turn out to be rain-free and a little less humid than yesterday. It appears that the worst stretch of heat and humidity will makes its way into the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the work week and likely right through the weekend as well. We’re likely not talking about record highs with this hot spell, but the nights will offer little respite as overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights, for example, will hold in the mid and upper 70’s in many spots. A weak frontal system could enhance chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and then another front could renew the threat of rain on Sunday.
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The combination of a very humid air mass and an impulse in the upper atmosphere drifting in this direction will likely result in numerous afternoon and evening showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Given the high moisture levels and the ”lift” in the atmosphere that is expected later today, any PM shower or thunderstorm can dump a lot of rainfall in a short period of time with localized flooding a possibility. After a calmer day on Tuesday, the mid and late week will feature the worst stretch of heat and humidity so far this summer with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90’s along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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A weak frontal system and a very humid air mass will keep us unsettled today in the Mid-Atlantic region with the chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today/early tonight can produce heavy rainfall with localized flooding a possibility. The front will dissipate during the next couple of days and an increase in sunshine will boost temperatures to the low-to-mid 90’s by mid-week and it’ll be humid as well. Another frontal system will bring us a return of a shower and thunderstorm threat later in the week.
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We have now reached the mid-point of the month of July and, so far, tropical activity has been below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that at least the Atlantic Basin will see a ramp up in action during the next several weeks.
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The weather will get more unsettled this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region as high pressure shifts to an offshore position and a frontal system approaches from the northwest. This front will be a slow-mover and will hang around during the early part of next week. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase some this weekend and the threat will stick around on Monday.
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The weather stays generally rain-free and moderately warm over the next couple of days as high pressure over the Great Lakes dominates the weather scene around here. However, there is a weak frontal boundary zone nearby and its proximity to this area could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm both later today and on Friday. The overall pattern tends to turn warmer and more unsettled this weekend and into the early part of next week, but still no sustained 90+ degree type of weather.
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A cold front crossed the region last night and it will stall out just to the south of here later today. As a result of the proximity of the stalled-out front, a shower will remain a possibility during each of the next few days; however, the vast majority of the time will be rain-free. Temperatures will continue to remain moderately warm for mid-July and overall humidity will be lower today following the passage of the frontal system.
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A combination of an approaching cold front, upper-level support, and a very warm and humid low-level air mass will result in a strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late today and tonight. The most likely timetable for this severe weather threat in the I-95 corridor will be 4-10pm with damaging wind gusts and downpours on the table.
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A strong cold front will approach the area later today and it can set off a strong-to-severe thunderstorm during the late afternoon or evening hours. High pressure will try to take back control of the weather on Wednesday, but a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out during the second half of the week as the same cold front that passes through by tonight will stall out just to the south of here and keep it somewhat unstable.
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The new work week will start off with high pressure in control and temperatures will be comfortably warm with highs in the 80’s. A strong cold front will approach the area later tomorrow and it can set off a strong thunderstorm or two during the PM hours on Tuesday. High pressure will try to take back control for the second half of the week, but the front stalls out nearby keeping chances alive somewhat for late week showers and thunderstorms.
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