Rain is likely to break out here during the mid-to-late morning hours with the next approaching storm system and there can be a wintry mix for a brief time at the onset in some of the far northern and western suburbs. Little to no snow accumulations are expected. Some of the rain later today and early tonight can fall heavily at times. On the back side of the storm, NW winds will increase noticeably on Thursday with gusts possible to 50 mph, and it’ll be a moderately chilly day with high pressure headed this way.
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A significant winter storm is developing today over Texas and this moisture-laden system will push northeastward over the next 24 hours bringing significant snowfall all the way from Texas to the Midwest. In the Mid-Atlantic region, snow is likely to break out on Wednesday morning in areas to the north of the PA/MD border and there can be some minor accumulations before a changeover to rain later today as milder air surges northward along the coast.
Looking ahead, widespread colder-than-normal air is going to push into the northern and western US early next week and it’ll likely spread into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by late next week. Whether or not this change to colder-than-normal conditions is sustained in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US after next week will largely depend on the stubborn high pressure ridge aloft over the southwestern Atlantic/Southeast US. Elsewhere, there has been some amazing cold on the other side of the North Pole with the lowest temperature ever recorded in China on Monday and this follows some tremendous cold last week in Russia (Siberia). This frigid air is now spreading to the Korean Peninsula and on the way to Japan where there can also be some all-time low temperatures.
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The active weather pattern will bring us another storm system to deal with on Wednesday and this one may feature some snow or a wintry mix at the onset. Low pressure will develop today over Texas and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This high will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast US. In the local area, there can be a brief period of snow or a wintry mix at the onset in some of the far northern and western suburbs before a changeover to rain takes place in all areas.
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As one storm continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with lingering rain and snow, the seeds for the next system are rolling through the southwestern states in the form of a vigorous upper-level low. This feature will drift into Texas on Tuesday and help generate surface low pressure and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This system will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. There is likely to even be some accumulating snow at the onset in portions of the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before the precipitation ultimately changes to plain rain.
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As low pressure pulls away to the northeast of here today, occasional rain will continue until late morning or mid-day. Winds will intensify this afternoon from a northwesterly direction and can gust to 30 mph or later in the day. High pressure returns to the area for a brief time on Tuesday and then the next storm in this active weather pattern arrives on Wednesday. It could be cold enough for some snow at the onset on Wednesday, but an eventual changeover to plain rain is expected. High pressure will return on Thursday following the passage of the mid-week storm system along with the return of strong NW winds.
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High pressure will take control of the weather around here today bringing us some sun, dry conditions, and a gusty wind through Saturday. The next low pressure system pushes this way later Sunday and it’ll likely produce rain here into the day on Monday. There is an outside chance that enough cold air will be around to allow for some snow in areas to the north and west of I-95 for part of this event. Another storm looks likely by the middle of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region bringing us rain and/or snow.
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Stratospheric temperatures have risen noticeably during the past couple of weeks in parts of the polar region in the Northern Hemisphere and indications are there will be changes of location of the polar vortex 10-15 days out. In addition, stratospheric warming looks like it could become centered right near or over the North Pole by the time we get into the early part of February. A stratospheric warming event such as this being forecasted could very well result in the displacement of cold air masses from the high latitudes into the middle latitudes sometime later in February.
In the short term, two storm systems are on the way for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the early and middle parts of next week. As has been the case in January, sufficient cold air for the generation of accumulating snow in the immediate I-95 corridor will be a struggle with both of these upcoming storms. Having said that, it looks like a close call in terms of at least some snow and/or ice in the I-95 corridor during either of these storms and any small change in the overall pattern can make an important difference. Odds do favor accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during each of these storms next week.
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Low pressure will push to our northwest today bringing us occasional rain and it’ll drag a cold front through the region by later tonight. High pressure will return on Friday and take control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. The next low pressure system will then push in this direction from our southwest and it should produce a chilly rain around here from later Sunday into early Monday.
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While the western US may experience an extended quieter weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. The break in the action in the western US will be due to the development of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that will ultimately extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean northward into Alaska. In response to this ridge, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada by later next week. The combination of the eastern Pacific-to-Alaska ridge and the trough over the central US/Canada will result in upper-level winds that can easily transport cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, signs point to widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most the nation by late next week. Nationwide colder-than-normal weather in late January is quite impressive considering this is when climatological averages are close to their lowest levels of the year.
Meanwhile, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will feature a ridge of high pressure in coming days that will intensify at times and the corridor region between the upper-level low (cold) over the central states and the Atlantic Ocean ridge (warm) will become a “battle zone” region with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Accumulating snow has been virtually non-existent so far this winter season in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this active pattern will at least be able to raise hope for snow lovers in that part of the country with a couple of storm systems next week.
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After a milder day with some sunshine, clouds will increase this evening and rain is likely to return late tonight and continue Thursday. Low pressure will push to our northwest tomorrow bringing us a decent rainfall and a front will swing through by later tomorrow night. High pressure will return on Friday and take control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. The next low pressure system could throw some precipitation our way late in the weekend and during the early part of next week.
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