A widespread severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region this past Monday and a key ingredient was a vigorous wave of low pressure aloft that crossed the Great Lakes on a path towards the northern Mid-Atlantic. Other ingredients included multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere, a strong surface cool front, and an influx of very moist air from the southeastern states on the front side of the front. A similar overall weather pattern may repeat itself from later Monday into Monday night. While still several days away, many of these same factors may indeed come together early next week and the result can be another round of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and it will stay in control for another day here at mid-week. A frontal system will arrive on Thursday and there will be occasional rain with possible thunderstorms. Some of the rain that falls on Thursday can be heavy at times and some of the storms can be strong. Drier air returns for Friday and the weekend looks to feature quite warm conditions with just a chance for a few showers on Saturday night. Looking ahead, a potent system may reach the Mid-Atlantic region late Monday raising the chances (once again) for heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
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After a severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region late yesterday, the weather will calm down today as high pressure edges this way. Winds will increase today as partial sunshine develops and the humidity levels will drop to more comfortable levels. High pressure is to stay in control of the weather at mid-week and then another disturbance arrives later in the day on Thursday with a renewed threat of showers.
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The severe weather threat is increasing across Maryland, Virginia and the Washington, D.C. metro region where skies have cleared allowing for temperatures to climb well up into the 80’s. Clouds should thin out across southern PA during the next couple of hours. This daytime heating is helping to destabilize the atmosphere setting the stage for what appears to be a widespread severe wind event later today into early tonight across Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. and it is likely to extend up across much of southern PA including the Philly metro area. In addition to the low-level heating, ingredients include ample available moisture and powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere (e.g., 250 millibars, 850 millibars). The potential exists for wind gusts to reach into the 60-75 mph range with power outages on the table. Tornadoes are also in the picture during this weather event…expect a tornado watch to be issued shortly for many areas. The likely timetable for the severe weather in the DC-to-Philly corridor is 4-8pm.
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A very active beginning to the week as a potent system crosses the Ohio Valley and enhances upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. The result will be occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms…some of the rain can be heavy at times, some of the storms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts a threat…maybe even an isolated tornado. High pressure will return for the mid-week period before somewhat unsettled weather heads this way later in the week.
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A cool front will approach the area later today from our northwest and it is likely to generate isolated late day or evening showers and thunderstorms. The weekend is likely to turn out to be primarily rain-free following the late night/early morning passage of the cool frontal system. The early part of next week looks very unsettled as a potent system heads this way from the Midwest. This can spark some heavy shower and strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Monday night.
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The weather has been rather tranquil during the past few days in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US following a very active extended stretch that included numerous heavy rain and strong thunderstorm events. The calm may be just about to wind down for the northeastern quadrant of the nation. A cold front will push through the Northeast US on Friday and it is likely to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain later Friday can be heavy at times and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. An even more impressive system will cross the Great Lakes from late Sunday into late Monday and it could produce another batch of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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High pressure will move offshore today and a couple of frontal systems will affect us over the next couple of days. A warm front will push through from the south later today and then a cold front approaches from the west later tomorrow. As a result, the overall humidity and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase by tonight and there can be some rain on Friday as well. Looking ahead, the potential exists for a dry weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with warm conditions and lowering humidity following the passage of the cold front. The weather likely turns unsettled once again early next week as a potent system heads this way on Monday.
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High pressure that had its origins up in Canada will continue to influence the weather around here providing us with another pleasant day featuring comfortable temperatures and low humidity. This high will move offshore on Thursday and a couple of disturbances will head this way from the middle of the country. As a result, the humidity and chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase later tomorrow and it looks like the threat for rain will continue on Friday as well. Looking ahead, the potential exists for a dry weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with comfortable temperatures as another high pressure system expands into the region. The weather likely turns unsettled once again early next week.
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It looks like the month of August will feature multiple cooler-than-normal air masses dropping into the US from Canada which continues a trend that has encompassed much of the summer season so far and impacted large areas of the country. The one areal exception to this pattern has been the Southwest US where intense upper-level ridging has resulted in persistent excessive heat during the past several weeks. These intrusions of cooler-than-normal air this summer has balanced out the excessive heat in the Southwest US leaving the nation with nearly normal temperatures as we begin the month of August.
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