Hurricane Idalia makes landfall this morning as a “major” along Florida’s Gulf coast and will push to the northeast over the next 24-36 hours likely reaching the Carolina coastline by early Thursday. High pressure to our west will build into the Northeast US in this same 24-36 hour time period halting any northward advance of Idalia past the state of North Carolina. This same high pressure system will stay in control of the weather here in the Mid-Atlantic region for the remainder of the week providing us with comfortable temperatures as we end the month of August.
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Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify today as it encounters more favorable environmental conditions with diminished wind shear and it is likely to attain “major” classification of category 3 or higher before making landfall early tomorrow along Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Idalia will then turn northeast, weaken slowly, and push towards the Carolina coastline as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure ridging aloft to its west and north. As a result of the developing widespread upper-level ridge, Idalia will likely meander over the western Atlantic Ocean for several days and there is even an outside chance that it could loop back around to revisit Florida in a weakened state about a week from now. Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin maintains status as a category 4 “major” system. It will pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday bringing tropical storm conditions to the island. After that, Hurricane Franklin will push northeastward to the open waters of the North Atlantic as southwesterly flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough steers it in that direction.
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A stalled-out frontal system will keep it unsettled around here with some drizzle possible this morning and the chance of showers during the afternoon. Thunderstorms can mix into the picture during the PM hours and some of the rain that falls can be heavy at times. Temperatures will remain in the comfortable zone for the latter part of August with highs later today in the lower 80’s. High pressure will then likely take control of the weather for the second half of the week as it looks like the remnants of Hurricane Idalia will stay to our south and east. Hurricane Idalia is likely to reach “major” hurricane status before making landfall early tomorrow along Florida’s Gulf coast.
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Franklin has climbed to category 4 “major” hurricane status and will fortunately spend its time in the foreseeable future over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. While it does bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda early Wednesday, a deep trough moving off the NE US coastline will help to steer it northeastward and out to the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, “Idalia” has reached strong tropical storm status today and is knocking on the doorstep of being declared a full-fledged hurricane. Tropical Storm Idalia will spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, begin an intensification process, and likely reach the Gulf coast region of Florida early Wednesday to the north of the Tampa Bay region.
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The week begins with high pressure to our north and a frontal system to our south that will soon begin a movement to the north. This front stalls nearby later tonight and Tuesday and then a cool front approaches on Tuesday night. As a result, showers cannot be rule out today and tonight and are likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night and thunderstorms can mix into the picture. High pressure will try to take control of the weather later this week, but we’ll have to watch the northward advancement of Tropical Storm Idalia. TS Idalia is likely to strengthen to “major” hurricane status before hitting the west side of Florida around late Tuesday night and then push northeastward to the Carolinas. Given this track, winds could become an issue by Thursday across places like southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula…a system to closely monitor in coming days.
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The weather remains unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as we end the work week with occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two…some of the rain can be heavy. It turns warmer today compared to Thursday following the passage of a warm frontal system. The weekend should feature better overall conditions with moderate temperatures and generally rain-free conditions although a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out from time-to-time.
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Strong high pressure ridging continues to be centered over the central states and active weather has developed in northwest flow across its outer perimeter region. As a result, there will be occasional showers here and scattered thunderstorms are likely as well…some of the rain that falls in this unsettled period can be heavy at times. Temperatures today are likely to reach 80 degrees for afternoon highs and could climb into the middle 90’s on Friday following the passage of a warm front and ahead of the next cool front.
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A lot is going on in the world of weather highlighted by multiple tropical systems, an intense heat wave with very high humidity levels anchored by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging, and very active weather in the “ring of fire” around the outer perimeter of that same high pressure system. On the tropical scene, Tropical Storm Franklin is pounding away today at Haiti and the Dominican Republic and once it bypasses this high-terrain Caribbean island of Hispaniola into the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic, it will intensify into a hurricane with a decent chance of attaining “major” categorization of 3 or higher. Meanwhile, the moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harold which pounded southern Texas earlier this week will douse the Four Corner states during the next couple of days. Finally, there is the chance that a tropical systems forms this weekend in Caribbean Sea and it could move north next week and impact portions of the Southeast US.
Elsewhere, very strong ridging of high pressure over the nation’s midsection is anchoring an intense heat wave from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf coast. This heat wave is made worse by very high humidity levels that have featured dew points as high as 80 degrees in some spots. On the outer perimeter of this very strong high pressure ridge is a region that I like to refer to as the “ring of fire”, there is some very active weather that is bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms to the eastern Great Lakes. This “ring of fire” activity will spread to the south and east bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the next couple of days.
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High pressure that originated in Canada will move overhead today generating another comfortable day in the Mid-Atlantic region with pleasant temperatures and low humidity levels. While the comfortable weather pattern continues here in the Mid-Atlantic region, strong upper-level ridging in the middle of the country is resulting in a blistering heat wave from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf coast that is accompanied by very uncomfortably high humidity levels. The weather here turns much more unsettled again beginning late tonight and continuing into the weekend with the renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms…some of the rain can be heavy at times.
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A cool front passed through the region early this morning and temperatures will average some ten degrees cooler this afternoon as compared with Monday. High pressure that originated in Canada will control the weather for the next couple of days and a developing upper-level trough later in the week will bring a return to somewhat unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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