Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the high pressure system still to our northeast, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system could then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week; however, the high pressure system over the NE US/SE Canada will be reluctant to give up its ground.
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Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Strong high pressure will control the weather around here for the remainder of the week with each day featuring plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. Temperatures should peak this afternoon in the low-to-mid 80’s and then likely in the similar range for the latter part of the week and weekend. Elsewhere, on the tropical scene, Francine will approach the central coast of Louisiana later today as a strong “cat 1” hurricane or possibly even a “cat 2” and it will push northward after landfall on Thursday over the southern Mississippi Valley. A strong blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere will likely result in a halt later in the week to the northward advance of Francine’s remnants and then there is a chance that low pressure forms near the east coast early next week.
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After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Tropical Storm Francine was born early Monday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but it has shown little in the way of additional intensification since then. However, all signs point to significant intensification of Francine from later tonight into the day on Wednesday...first into category 1 hurricane status and then possibly reaching category 2 classification later tomorrow as it approaches the Louisiana coastline. Odds favor Francine making landfall late tomorrow somewhere over the central portion of Louisiana’s coastline and its impact will be high all the way into the New Orleans metro area.
After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley. Its northward progress will then grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada. The ultimate result in this atmospheric blocking scenario could be the formation of another low pressure system somewhere along the east coast in about a week’s time.
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Strong high pressure will control the weather around here for the remainder of the week with each day featuring plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. Temperatures should peak this afternoon near 80 degrees and then likely in the low-to-mid 80’s for the latter part of the week and upcoming weekend.
In terms of rainfall, the overall pattern will remain very dry in the Mid-Atlantic region with this high pressure system dominating the scene. In fact, tropical moisture associated with TS Francine will advance northward later in the week after a mid-week landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane. However, with the strong high in place to our northeast, the advance of the tropical moisture field will quite likely grind to a halt somewhere over the Tennessee Valley/Midwest and it’ll not be able to make it into the northeastern part of the nation.
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After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Francine was born this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to threaten the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday as a hurricane. A tropical wave that has been meandering over the warm waters of the SW Gulf in recent days has now attained named tropical storm status and it is likely to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and then head towards the Louisiana coastline for a possible landfall later in the day on Wednesday. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding all the way from coastal sections of far northeast Mexico to southern Mississippi and an increasing likelihood of storm surge inundation.
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High pressure will control the weather around here for much of the week and each day should feature plenty of sunshine with rain-free conditions. Temperatures are starting off the week quite cool this morning and should peak this afternoon in the pleasant upper 70’s to go along with the sunshine. There will be a gradual warming trend during the next couple days with highs likely back in the low-to-mid 80’s for much of the second half of the week.
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High pressure over the northeastern states will control the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for another day with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels though clouds will be abundant. The high shifts off the coast by early tomorrow and there will be a cold frontal system pushing this way from our northwest. As a result, showers are likely on Saturday and temperatures should peak in the middle 70’s for highs. This will not be an all-day heavy rain type event anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic region and that includes in State College, PA where Penn State plays its home opener at noon…showers only. The front sweeps through on Saturday night and its passage will usher in another cool, crisp, fall-like air mass for Sunday and Monday of early next week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is just around the corner and there are now as many as five systems to monitor in coming days after a very lengthy quiet period. In fact, there has not been a newly named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since “Ernesto” first reached that designation on August 12th, and this is the longest such quiet stretch since the late 1960’s. With five separate tropical systems currently showing some life in the Atlantic Basin and near-term changes coming to the overall weather pattern, the absence of named tropical storms is very likely to soon come to an end.
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High pressure over the northeastern states will control the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for another couple of days. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain quite comfortable for this time of year with afternoon highs within a few degrees of the 80 degree mark. The high shifts off the coast by Saturday and there will be a cold frontal system pushing this way from the northwest. As a result, showers are likely on Saturday; especially, during the afternoon hours and temperatures should hold in the mid-to-upper 70’s for highs. The front sweeps through on Saturday night and its passage will usher in another cool, crisp, fall-like air mass for Sunday and Monday of early next week.
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