All eyes today on the Gulf of Mexico where Hurricane Helene will intensify as it pushes to in a north-to-northeast direction putting it on a collision course with Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Helene should make landfall early tonight in the “Big Bend” region of Florida’s Gulf coast likely as a category 3 “major” storm; however, climbing to a category 4 designation is on the table.
After landfall, Hurricane Helene will initially push in a northward direction bringing its hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to the state of Georgia. Ultimately, the remnants of Hurricane Helene will be forced to turn north and west and towards the Middle Mississippi Valley region due to very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north over Canada. Excessive rainfall amounts can spread throughout much of the southern Appalachians as upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and likely result in some tremendous amounts of rainfall.
In the Mid-Atlantic, there is a good chance of showers today with isolated thunderstorms as a warm frontal system pushes through the region…some of the rain can come down hard at times. After that, there is a good chance that some of the tropical moisture field associated with Hurricane Helene will make it this far north for the Friday/Saturday time period. As a result, showers will be a threat as we end the work week and begin the upcoming weekend.
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Tropical Storm Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is on the verge of attaining “category 1” hurricane status with sustained winds of 74-95 mph. All indications are that Helene will undergo rapid intensification during the next 24 hours or so given the combination of favorable environmental conditions such as low vertical wind shear and ample moisture, and its movement over very warm water with high oceanic heat content. This expected intensification of Helene will likely result in attainment of “major” hurricane classification on Thursday as a category 3 storm system with sustained winds of 111 mph – 129 mph. Helene should begin to accelerate tomorrow in a north-to-northeast direction likely resulting in a landfall early tomorrow night along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region. As is typical of northward moving tropical storms, the storm surge should be most impactful to the right of the landfall location potentially affecting coastal sections down to areas just north of Tampa Bay. In addition, there will be the threat of tornadoes to the right of the storm’s track including portions of northern and eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will move along at a pretty good clip in a general northward direction through the state of Georgia where there is likely to be significant impact including hurricane-force wind gusts and excessive rainfall amounts. In fact, excessive rainfall may extend to throughout much of the southern Appalachians where strong upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and increase overall amounts. By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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It stays on the cool side of normal today as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to influence the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will pass by to our north during the next 24 hours and it’ll help to advance a warm front into our area. As a result, there will be occasional showers today, tonight and on Thursday and a thunderstorm or two can be mixed into the picture.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Helene continues to intensify early today as it moves towards the southern Gulf of Mexico. It’ll clip the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and likely reach category 1 hurricane status. As it continues to move over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday, it should climb to “major” hurricane status of at least category 3 classification. Landfall as a “major” hurricane is likely by late Thursday along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region and “Helene” will then continue on a north-northeast track resulting in with big impacts to the state of Georgia as well as Florida.
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A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..
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The next few days will remain on the cool side around here as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada continues to have an influence on the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. These next few days will also remain unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the Caribbean Sea will intensify as it moves northward in coming days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall later in the day on Thursday - perhaps as a “major” hurricane of category 3 status or higher - likely somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast (Big Bend region).
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A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
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The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.
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The work week will end with high pressure in control producing plenty of sunshine around here and comfortably warm conditions. However, the weekend and first half of next week will be somewhat unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time as we’ll have to deal with a couple of different cold frontal systems. Temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid 80’s later today and then will trend downward from this weekend into early next week with highs on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday likely not too far from the 70-degree mark.
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The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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Low pressure will meander off the coast during the next couple of days and most of the moisture associated with it will as well; however, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. High pressure will take control of the weather later this weekend and it’ll stick around through the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain comfortably warm for the next few days with highs at or slightly above the 80-degree mark and the the 70’s will dominate the scene early next week for afternoon temperatures.
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