A fresh cold and dry air mass pushed into the region last night following the daytime passage of a cold frontal system. This air mass is being anchored today by strong high pressure building over New England and will help to set the stage for an icing event from early tonight into early Thursday. As moisture arrives later today or early tonight, there can be a bit of snow and/or sleet; however, precipitation is likely to change to freezing rain in the overnight hours with an icy build-up by morning on untreated surfaces; especially, across the normally colder N/W suburbs. Temperatures will struggle to rise above-freezing on Thursday morning; consequently, there will likely be slippery road conditions for the AM commute...plain rain winds down by mid-day and afternoon with temperatures should become well above the freezing mark. A similar scenario is possible this Saturday and Saturday night with a ”snow-to-sleet-to-freezing rain-to-plain rain” scenario on the table. Looking ahead, accumulating snow is likely to threaten the Mid-Atlantic region during the early-to-middle part of next week.
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An active weather pattern will likely bring three winter storm systems to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next week or so. The first system will bring a mix of precipitation to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late tomorrow into Thursday morning and all areas are likely to experience slippery road conditions for the Thursday AM commute. A thin layer aloft of slightly above-freezing air will push into the region on Wednesday night, and this will play a big role in precipitation types ranging from snow-to-sleet-to-freezing rain to just plain rain. Always a difficult forecast when dealing with these thin layers, but my initial feeling on this mid-week threat in the I-95 corridor is as follows: DC metro region will get hit hard with freezing rain leading to a significant ice-buildup, the Philly metro region may have an extended period of sleet, and the NYC metro region may actually see snow for much of the event that certainly can mix with sleet at times. A similar weather event could unfold for the upcoming weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with a “snow-to-sleet-to-freezing rain-to-plain rain” scenario on the table. Looking past the weekend system, there very well may be an accumulating snow threat for much of the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and it can be significant.
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In just the next week or so, it appears there will be as many as three opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region. The first such opportunity will come from late tomorrow into early Thursday and this could turn out to be an icy mess for much of the Mid-Atlantic region leading to issues for the Thursday AM commute in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The setup will include a cold frontal passage today that will be followed by an influx of fresh cold and dry air in the overnight hours while at the same time moisture begins to gather over the Tennessee Valley. This dense, cold air mass will be quite reluctant to give up its ground on Wednesday night as the moisture arrives and surface temperatures will be slow to climb to above freezing levels until later Thursday morning. At the onset of the precipitation later tomorrow, there can be a period of snow in some areas and plain rain with above-freezing temperatures is likely on the back end later Thursday.
Looking ahead, there can be a repeat performance in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend with “snow-to-sleet-to-freezing rain-to-plain rain” on the table. Looking even farther ahead, there may be an accumulating snow threat by the middle of next week in this on-going very active weather pattern.
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February is now a few days old, and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and it is likely to feature a polar vortex “split” and high-latitude blocking. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region as we progress through the month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. The first opportunity comes at mid-week, and it may turn out to be the first significant icing event in quite awhile for much of the Mid-Atlantic region with possible snow on the front end and plain rain on the back end. A similar scenario may take place this weekend with frozen precipitation possible on the front-end of the next storm system and plain rain on the back end. A third storm may threaten by the middle of next week and this one should have more cold air to work with raising the chance of accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A warm front lifted through the region last night and today will become milder with afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the upper 50’s for highs. A colder air mass pushes in by mid-week and it’ll be supported by a strong high pressure system situated over New England. This is likely to set the stage for some frozen precipitation around here from later Wednesday into Wednesday night including a period of sleet and freezing rain. On Thursday, temperatures should climb to warm enough levels for plain rain in most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, there may be a somewhat similar scenario to deal with this weekend with the possibility of some frozen precipitation at the onset of a second system with plain rain to follow. Yet another system could threaten us with snow by the middle of next week as the overall pattern looks very active for the month of February.
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February is now underway and it looks like it will be a very active month with plenty of cold air around and is likely to feature a stratospheric polar vortex split that can impact US temperatures all the way into March. There should be plenty of opportunities for snow, ice and rain in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as we progress through the new month with just the next week or so likely to feature as many as three precipitation events. Another player on the field that will have to be monitored this month will be the occasional appearance of the Southeast US high pressure ridge – often seen during La Nina winters – and this enhances the possibility of quite warm conditions across the southern states and also chances for severe weather.
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The month of January has been a dry one in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but it will end on a wet note with rainfall today primarily focused on the PM hours. Moderately cold conditions will follow for the weekend likely with clouds giving way to sun on Saturday and plenty of clouds on Sunday. A warm front should lift northward across the area by early Monday paving the way for milder conditions to start the new work week and then a cold front arrives by early Tuesday of next week.
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February can feature quite active weather across the nation with increasingly warm and humid air down across the southern states and some very cold Arctic air remaining up to the north. In fact, this kind of clash in the atmosphere appears to be setting up for next week which may lead to a storm system that features a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week from rain/thunderstorms in its warm sector to snow and ice in the cold sector. Eventually, it appears the cold air will “win” this battle and overspread the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. By the way, Sunday is Groundhog Day and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the month of January will end on a wet note in the Mid-Atlantic region with primarily a rain event from late tonight through Friday; however, accumulating snow is likely from interior New York State to New England where at least a few inches are on the table.
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It’ll be slightly colder today in the DC metro region on the back side of a frontal passage and sun will give way to increasing clouds as low pressure organizes over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and it’ll push in our direction later tonight spreading rain into the region that should last through much of the day on Friday. Rain has been a rare commodity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the month of January which has been drier-than-normal in the local area with a deficit of 1.41 inches. Temperatures during the day on Friday will climb into the 50’s, and then it turns moderately cold again to begin the weekend.
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A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today – the second such system in two days – and winds will pick up in intensity possibly gusting to 50 mph or so. There is the chance for an isolated afternoon rain shower, but most of the precipitation will stay to the north of here and it’ll become quite mild with afternoon highs not far from 60 degrees. However, it turns colder on Thursday and clouds will increase later in the day as low pressure intensifies over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and spread rain into the area late Thursday night and on Friday. Temperatures should climb well up into the 50’s on Friday to go along with the occasional rainfall, and then it turns moderately cold again this weekend.
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