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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

6:00 AM | ***Significant system impacts the Mid-Atlantic region...flash flooding and severe weather on the table***

Paul Dorian

A significant storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region

The next couple of days will be quite unsettled across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as an upper-level trough of low pressure sends spokes of energy our way from the Great Lakes. As a result, there will be numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region…some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain will be heavy. The best chance for the severe weather will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva) and the best chance for flooding rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., NE MD, eastern PA, NJ, NYC)…watch out for localized flash flooding. Surface low pressure will develop later today underneath the upper-level trough and spin around quite slowly extending the threat of rain into the mid-week.

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****Volatile pattern to lead to severe storms/heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days****

Paul Dorian

Numerous ingredients will come together during the next couple of days to raise the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In an overall pattern quite similar to a week ago, strong upper-level ridging is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain States, and the outer periphery of this system features northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes. Embedded within this northwesterly flow will be an intensifying upper-level jet streak on Tuesday that’ll drop to the south and east enhancing upper motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is currently positioned over the southeastern part of Canada, and it will add fuel to the fire by sending spokes of energy into the northeastern states during the next couple of days. Finally, not to be outdone by its upper-level counterparts, the surface level will get involved as low pressure will deepen over the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday and there will be a secondary surface low unfolding over western NY State.

All of these ingredients can result in severe thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days with a focus on Tuesday afternoon and evening and there can be torrential rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with 3+ inches on the table. The best chance of severe weather on Tuesday will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva), and the best chance of soaking rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., eastern PA, NJ, NYC), but some of these details still have to be worked out.

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6:00 AM | **An unsettled next few days...strong-to-severe storms and heavy rain a threat for Tuesday**

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will be quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as an upper-level trough of low pressure over southeastern Canada sends spokes of energy our way. As a result, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms here on Monday to start the new work week and an even better chance on Tuesday. In fact, some of the thunderstorms on Tuesday can reach strong-to-severe levels and some of the rain can be heavy at times. On Wednesday, low pressure looks to move offshore and there can be lingering showers and storms in the area during the afternoon hours, but the threat of severe weather will be lower than tomorrow.

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6:00 AM | *Comfortable conditions as we head into the weekend...unsettled weather returns early next week...no extreme heat in sight*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will remain quite comfortable across the Mid-Atlantic region with moderate warmth and humidity levels for this late stage of the month of July...and no extreme heat is in sight. An upper-level trough of low pressure will re-establish itself over the northeastern states during the early part of next week and this could contribute to another strong-to-severe thunderstorm outbreak on Tuesday afternoon/evening in the Mid-Atlantic region and heavy rainfall is a possibility as well.

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6:00 AM | *Quite a comfortable day for the latter part of July*

Paul Dorian

A cold front pushed off the eastern seaboard late yesterday and its passage ushered in a refreshing air mass to the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures and humidity levels will remain in the comfortable zone for the next few days and there will be plenty of sunshine as well. Humidity begins to build up early next week and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase as the next frontal system heads in this direction from the Great Lakes.

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6:00 AM | *Refreshing air mass arrives tonight...nice weather for Thursday and Friday*

Paul Dorian

A cold front will slowly work its way to the eastern seaboard today and clouds will give way to clearing skies by later tonight and a refreshing air mass will move into the Mid-Atlantic region. As the front pushes towards the coast, there can be additional showers and thunderstorms later today, but likely confined to areas just to the south and east of the metro region. Temperatures and humidity levels will be quite comfortable from later tonight into the weekend across the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of the cold frontal system.

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***Severe weather/heavy rain threat for the Mid-Atlantic region...damaging wind gusts, downpours, localized flash flooding, isolated tornadoes on the table***

Paul Dorian

There is high risk of severe weather later today in the Mid-Atlantic region as several ingredients come together to enhance upward motion and destabilize the atmosphere. There were some showers around earlier today, but the late afternoon and evening hours will present the greatest risk for the severe weather. The primary hazards on the table include damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Showers and thunderstorms can linger on Wednesday; especially, along and to the south and east of the I-95 corridor as the cold front pushes towards the eastern seaboard. Refreshing air will follow the frontal passage on Wednesday night and great weather is destined for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Friday.

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6:00 AM | ***Severe weather and heavy rainfall risk today/tonight...showers/storms can linger into Wednesday...refreshing air mass to follow***

Paul Dorian

Severe weather affected the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, and another high risk is on the way for this afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes towards the region. Not everyone will get hit by the strong-to-severe storms, but ingredients are coming together for what looks like multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain will be heavy…watch out for localized flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms can linger into Wednesday; especially, along and to the south and east of the I-95 corridor. A refreshing air mass will arrive on Wednesday night and the weather looks great for Thursday and Friday.

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***Another severe weather and heavy rainfall risk for the Mid-Atlantic...refreshing air mass to follow..."Bertha" on the way***

Paul Dorian

Severe weather affected the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday, and another threat is on the way for later tomorrow. Not everyone will get hit by the strong storms, but ingredients are coming together for what looks like multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain can be heavy. Showers and thunderstorms can linger into mid-week; especially across the southern part of the Mid-Atlantic and then a refreshing air mass will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, there is an intensifying tropical system over the northern Gulf, and it is likely to reach named tropical storm status (would be Bertha) in the near term.

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6:00 AM | **Strong storms a possibility again later tomorrow...comfortable air mass for later in the week**

Paul Dorian

High pressure builds into the region today and the new work week will start off on a nice note with plenty of sunshine and moderately warm conditions. The next cold front approaches later tomorrow and it can bring us multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and some of the rain can be heavy. There can be lingering showers into mid-week, but a refreshing air mass is to follow into the Mid-Atlantic region for much of the second half of the week.

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